ScoreProb
J1 League Japan Round 14 2027

Kashiwa Reysol vs Kawasaki Frontale

Kashiwa Reysol Home · Elo 1,589
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kawasaki Frontale Away · Elo 1,529
Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kashiwa Reysol win
Kashiwa Reysol winPick
53.6%
Draw
24.3%
Kawasaki Frontale win
22.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.2%
No42.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.5%
Under 2.546.5%

How much we know

Kashiwa Reysol history75 matches
Kawasaki Frontale history75 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 22 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 07:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Kashiwa Reysol are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Kashiwa Reysol are rated 60 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,589 against 1,529. On rating alone Kashiwa Reysol would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.64 goals a game over 75 matches for Kashiwa Reysol, against 1.61 over 75 for Kawasaki Frontale.

  • Kashiwa Reysol concede fewer

    Kashiwa Reysol concede 1.03 a game, Kawasaki Frontale 1.45.

  • Kawasaki Frontale games more often go over 2.5 goals

    45% of Kashiwa Reysol matches, against 56% for Kawasaki Frontale. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kashiwa Reysol
Kawasaki Frontale
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1588.9
ELO
1529.3
75
ELO · Matches
75
1588.9
Current Team ELO
1529.3
1529.3
Current Opponent ELO
1588.9
59.53
Current ELO Difference
-59.53
0.58
Expected score
0.42
75
History Matches
75
0.05
Residual Mean
0.02
54.34
Overperformance
51.62
0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.80
1.80
Goals for per game
0.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.10
2.10
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
70.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.97
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.89
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.63
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.45
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.89
Overall performance9 signals
90
75
Matches
75
1.84
PPG
1.44
54.7%
Win rate
37.3%
20.0%
Draw rate
32.0%
25.3%
Loss rate
30.7%
69.3%
Over 1.5 rate
81.3%
45.3%
Over 2.5 rate
56.0%
25.3%
Over 3.5 rate
34.7%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
37
1.95
PPG
1.27
59.5%
Win rate
32.4%
16.2%
Draw rate
29.7%
24.3%
Loss rate
37.8%
59.5%
Over 1.5 rate
81.1%
45.9%
Over 2.5 rate
45.9%
24.3%
Over 3.5 rate
18.9%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
37
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.64
Goals for per game
1.61
81.3%
Scoring rate
74.7%
46.7%
BTTS rate
60.0%
1.51
Goals for per game
1.24
81.1%
Scoring rate
70.3%
45.9%
BTTS rate
56.8%
3.00
Goals for per game
1.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
75
History Matches
75
1.64
Goals Mean
1.61
1.33
Goals Std
1.38
81.3%
Scored 1+ rate
74.7%
44.0%
Scored 2+ rate
48.0%
24.0%
Scored 3+ rate
22.7%
1.51
Venue Goals Mean
1.24
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.03
Goals against per game
1.45
58.7%
Conceding rate
78.7%
0.95
Goals against per game
1.30
56.8%
Conceding rate
81.1%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
75
History Matches
75
1.03
Conceded Mean
1.45
1.14
Conceded Std
1.18
26.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.7%
13.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.7%
0.95
Venue Conceded Mean
1.30
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
41.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.3%
18.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.3%
43.2%
Clean-sheet rate
18.9%
18.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
41.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.3%
18.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.3%
43.2%
Clean-sheet rate
18.9%
18.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.7%
41.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
75
History Matches
75
0.91
Result entropy
1.00
1.62
Goal Difference Std
1.67
8.99
Stability score
0.33
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
75
Eligible Matches
75
22
Lead Matches
16
86.4%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.83
16
Trailing Matches
16
25.0%
Non-loss rate
31.3%
18.8%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
75
Halftime Coverage Matches
75
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.99
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.49
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.88
Rest days
76.86
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.43
52
Normal Rest History Matches
46
1.81
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
18
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.89
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.24
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
3.00
PPG
1.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
3
Current Competition Matches
3
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
7
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.69
Portability PPG Std
0.29
1.90
Portability PPG Range
0.86
41.95
Portability Score
63.31
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
75
Clean History Matches
75
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO59.53
PPG0.40
GF0.03
GA-0.43
PPG2.00
PPG0.68
PPG1.20
PPG1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate20.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate24.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.03
Goals Std-0.05
Scored 1+ rate6.7%
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate1.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.27
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std1.08
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.43
Conceded Std-0.04
Clean-sheet rate20.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.16
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.35
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.14
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.05
Stability score8.65
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.55
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate11.4%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate18.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.29
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.67
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.40
Portability PPG Range1.04
Portability Score-21.36
Rest days1.01
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.32
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.31
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.65
Current Team ELO59.53
Current Opponent ELO-59.53
Current ELO Difference119.1
Expected score0.17
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.72
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kashiwa Reysol

W
Kashiwa Reysol2–0Daejeon Citizen3 Nov · home
Pick: Kashiwa Reysol 56% · hit
W
Kashiwa Reysol4–0Urawa31 Oct · home
Pick: Kashiwa Reysol 62% · hit
D
Ratchaburi0–0Kashiwa Reysol27 Oct · away
Pick: Kashiwa Reysol 39% · missed
W
Kashima2–3Kashiwa Reysol24 Oct · away
Pick: Kashiwa Reysol 35% · hit
D
FC Tokyo0–0Kashiwa Reysol21 Oct · away
Pick: Kashiwa Reysol 43% · missed

Kawasaki Frontale

L
Yokohama F. Marinos4–2Kawasaki Frontale1 Nov · away
Pick: Yokohama F. Marinos 44% · hit
W
Sagan Tosu0–2Kawasaki Frontale28 Oct · away
Pick: Kawasaki Frontale 42% · hit
W
Kawasaki Frontale2–1Fagiano Okayama25 Oct · home
Pick: Kawasaki Frontale 46% · hit
W
Kawasaki Frontale2–1Vissel Kobe21 Oct · home
Pick: Kawasaki Frontale 39% · hit
W
Cerezo Osaka2–4Kawasaki Frontale17 Oct · away
Pick: Cerezo Osaka 39% · missed

About this match

Kashiwa Reysol and Kawasaki Frontale meet in J1 League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 07:00 UTC. The match is played at Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Kashiwa Reysol win 53.6%, draw 24.3%, Kawasaki Frontale win 22.1%. The pick is Kashiwa Reysol win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.5%. Both teams to score: 57.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.