ScoreProb
Challenge League Switzerland Round 13 2026

FC Winterthur vs Étoile Carouge

FC Winterthur Home · Elo 1,430
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Étoile Carouge Away · Elo 1,496
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Winterthur win
FC Winterthur winPick
50.7%
Draw
22.5%
Étoile Carouge win
26.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.1%
No42.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.7%
Under 2.542.3%

How much we know

FC Winterthur history72 matches
Étoile Carouge history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why FC Winterthur are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Étoile Carouge are rated 65 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,496 against 1,430. On rating alone Étoile Carouge would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • FC Winterthur score more

    1.40 goals a game over 72 matches for FC Winterthur, against 1.25 over 67 for Étoile Carouge.

  • Étoile Carouge concede fewer

    FC Winterthur concede 2.01 a game, Étoile Carouge 1.42.

  • FC Winterthur games more often go over 2.5 goals

    69% of FC Winterthur matches, against 55% for Étoile Carouge. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Winterthur
Étoile Carouge@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1430.2
ELO
1495.6
72
ELO · Matches
67
1430.2
Current Team ELO
1495.6
1495.6
Current Opponent ELO
1430.2
-65.37
Current ELO Difference
65.37
0.41
Expected score
0.59
72
History Matches
67
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.01
46.17
Overperformance
49.55
0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.60
2.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
0.40
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.10
1.80
Goals for per game
0.80
1.30
Goals against per game
1.70
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.24
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.91
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.88
Overall performance9 signals
90
72
Matches
67
0.99
PPG
1.18
26.4%
Win rate
29.9%
19.4%
Draw rate
28.4%
54.2%
Loss rate
41.8%
90.3%
Over 1.5 rate
74.6%
69.4%
Over 2.5 rate
55.2%
47.2%
Over 3.5 rate
28.4%
2.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
35
1.14
PPG
1.14
28.6%
Win rate
28.6%
28.6%
Draw rate
28.6%
42.9%
Loss rate
42.9%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
65.7%
54.3%
Over 2.5 rate
54.3%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
35
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.40
Goals for per game
1.25
73.6%
Scoring rate
62.7%
59.7%
BTTS rate
49.3%
1.37
Goals for per game
1.17
74.3%
Scoring rate
54.3%
57.1%
BTTS rate
40.0%
2.25
Goals for per game
1.00
75.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
72
History Matches
67
1.40
Goals Mean
1.25
1.24
Goals Std
1.35
73.6%
Scored 1+ rate
62.7%
41.7%
Scored 2+ rate
37.3%
13.9%
Scored 3+ rate
16.4%
1.37
Venue Goals Mean
1.17
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.01
Goals against per game
1.42
84.7%
Conceding rate
74.6%
1.66
Goals against per game
1.46
80.0%
Conceding rate
71.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
72
History Matches
67
2.01
Conceded Mean
1.42
1.43
Conceded Std
1.28
61.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.8%
33.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.4%
1.66
Venue Conceded Mean
1.46
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
15.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.4%
26.4%
Failed-to-score rate
37.3%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
45.7%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
15.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.4%
26.4%
Failed-to-score rate
37.3%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
45.7%
15.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
72
History Matches
67
0.91
Result entropy
0.99
2.19
Goal Difference Std
1.99
8.79
Stability score
1.43
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
72
Eligible Matches
64
19
Lead Matches
16
52.6%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
0.60
Lead Points Retention
0.77
24
Trailing Matches
17
20.8%
Non-loss rate
23.5%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
72
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.78
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.66
1.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.95
Rest days
77.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.14
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
42
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.17
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.17
22
Long Rest History Matches
27
0.95
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.26
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
1.25
50.0%
Win rate
25.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
1.25
1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
7
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.62
Portability PPG Std
0.13
1.57
Portability PPG Range
0.35
44.52
Portability Score
78.85
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
72
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-65.37
PPG-0.19
GF0.15
GA0.60
PPG0.50
PPG0.00
PPG0.40
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.15
Goals Std-0.11
Scored 1+ rate10.9%
Scored 2+ rate4.4%
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.32
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.60
Conceded Std0.15
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate19.3%
Conceded 3+ rate16.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.34
History Matches5
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std0.20
Stability score7.36
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.97
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.16
Lead Points Retention-0.17
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate8.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.45
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.75
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.49
Portability PPG Range1.22
Portability Score-34.33
Rest days-0.03
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.86
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.00
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.30
Current Team ELO-65.37
Current Opponent ELO65.37
Current ELO Difference-130.7
Expected score-0.19
History Matches5
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.38
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Winterthur

W
FC WIL 19000–3FC Winterthur1 Nov · away
Pick: FC Winterthur 50% · hit
W
FC Winterthur4–0Stade Nyonnais23 Oct · home
Pick: FC Winterthur 60% · hit
L
FC Winterthur0–1FC Luzern17 Oct · home
Pick: FC Luzern 43% · hit
D
Stade Nyonnais2–2FC Winterthur1 Sep · away
Pick: FC Winterthur 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Étoile Carouge

D
Étoile Carouge2–2SC Kriens30 Oct · home
Pick: Étoile Carouge 45% · missed
W
FC Aarau1–2Étoile Carouge24 Oct · away
Pick: FC Aarau 41% · missed
L
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy3–0Étoile Carouge16 Oct · away
Pick: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 53% · hit
L
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy3–0Étoile Carouge1 Sep · away
Pick: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

FC Winterthur and Étoile Carouge meet in Challenge League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: FC Winterthur win 50.7%, draw 22.5%, Étoile Carouge win 26.8%. The pick is FC Winterthur win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.7%. Both teams to score: 57.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.