ScoreProb
NB II Hungary Round 13 2026

Fehérvár FC vs BVSC

Fehérvár FC Home · Elo 1,468
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
BVSC Away · Elo 1,469
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Fehérvár FC win
Fehérvár FC winPick
54.5%
Draw
23.5%
BVSC win
22.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.9%
No50.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.5%
Under 2.550.5%

How much we know

Fehérvár FC history63 matches
BVSC history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Fehérvár FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,468 against 1,469. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.16 goals a game over 63 matches for Fehérvár FC, against 1.13 over 56 for BVSC.

  • Defences are close

    Fehérvár FC concede 1.29 a game, BVSC 1.16.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    44% of Fehérvár FC matches, against 41% for BVSC. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Fehérvár FC
BVSC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1467.8
ELO
1468.9
63
ELO · Matches
56
1467.8
Current Team ELO
1468.9
1468.9
Current Opponent ELO
1467.8
-1.09
Current ELO Difference
1.09
0.50
Expected score
0.50
63
History Matches
56
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.01
48.32
Overperformance
49.09
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.40
1.60
Goals for per game
0.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.20
1.30
Goals for per game
0.90
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.22
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.18
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.97
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.70
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
56
1.13
PPG
1.18
30.2%
Win rate
30.4%
22.2%
Draw rate
26.8%
47.6%
Loss rate
42.9%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
66.1%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
41.1%
23.8%
Over 3.5 rate
23.2%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
24
1.34
PPG
1.08
37.5%
Win rate
29.2%
21.9%
Draw rate
20.8%
40.6%
Loss rate
50.0%
65.6%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
37.5%
Over 2.5 rate
45.8%
15.6%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
32
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.16
Goals for per game
1.13
66.7%
Scoring rate
60.7%
42.9%
BTTS rate
42.9%
1.16
Goals for per game
1.25
62.5%
Scoring rate
62.5%
31.3%
BTTS rate
37.5%
1.60
Goals for per game
0.25
100.0%
Scoring rate
25.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
63
History Matches
56
1.16
Goals Mean
1.13
1.21
Goals Std
1.18
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
60.7%
28.6%
Scored 2+ rate
32.1%
11.1%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
1.16
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.29
Goals against per game
1.16
71.4%
Conceding rate
71.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.29
59.4%
Conceding rate
70.8%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.50
60.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
63
History Matches
56
1.29
Conceded Mean
1.16
1.08
Conceded Std
1.03
39.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.4%
15.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.7%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
39.3%
40.6%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
39.3%
40.6%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
56
0.95
Result entropy
0.98
1.82
Goal Difference Std
1.66
4.51
Stability score
1.89
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
54
21
Lead Matches
14
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.79
15
Trailing Matches
14
20.0%
Non-loss rate
21.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.02
Rest days
77.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.40
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
36
Normal Rest History Matches
32
0.92
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.28
21
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.14
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
4
1.20
PPG
0.25
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
25.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
2.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.09
5
Current Competition Matches
4
1.20
Current Competition PPG
0.25
0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.25
6
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.45
Portability PPG Std
0.41
1.38
Portability PPG Range
1.12
52.57
Portability Score
54.87
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-1.09
PPG-0.05
GF0.03
GA0.13
PPG0.95
PPG0.26
PPG0.80
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate11.5%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches7
Goals Mean0.03
Goals Std0.03
Scored 1+ rate6.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean-0.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.03
History Matches7
Conceded Mean0.13
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate9.3%
Conceded 3+ rate5.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.07
History Matches7
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.16
Stability score2.62
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.44
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.27
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.01
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.95
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.45
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.04
Portability PPG Range0.26
Portability Score-2.30
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.90
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.36
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.19
Current Team ELO-1.09
Current Opponent ELO1.09
Current ELO Difference-2.17
Expected score0.00
History Matches7
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.77
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Fehérvár FC

W
Tiszakecske FC0–1Fehérvár FC31 Oct · away
Pick: Tiszakecske FC 49% · missed
L
Fehérvár FC1–2Ajka24 Oct · home
Pick: Fehérvár FC 41% · missed
L
Soroksar1–0Fehérvár FC18 Oct · away
Pick: Soroksar 51% · hit
L
Karcag SE2–1Fehérvár FC30 Aug · away
Pick: Karcag SE 46% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

BVSC

W
BVSC1–0Csakvar31 Oct · home
Pick: Csakvar 40% · missed
D
BVSC2–2Tiszakecske FC24 Oct · home
Pick: Tiszakecske FC 43% · missed
W
Ajka1–2BVSC17 Oct · away
Pick: Ajka 56% · missed
W
BVSC5–2Soroksar12 Oct · home
Pick: Soroksar 45% · missed
W
Diosgyori VTK0–2BVSC29 Aug · away
Pick: Diosgyori VTK 45% · missed

About this match

Fehérvár FC and BVSC meet in NB II on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Fehérvár FC win 54.5%, draw 23.5%, BVSC win 22.1%. The pick is Fehérvár FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.5%. Both teams to score: 49.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.