ScoreProb
Serie A Italy Round 11 2026

Fiorentina vs Juventus

Fiorentina Home · Elo 1,580
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Juventus Away · Elo 1,666
Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Juventus win
Fiorentina win
35.4%
Draw
24.7%
Juventus winPick
39.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.2%
No50.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.7%
Under 2.551.3%

How much we know

Fiorentina history90 matches
Juventus history84 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 19:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.9%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Juventus are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Juventus are rated 86 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,666 against 1,580. On rating alone Juventus would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Juventus score more

    1.43 goals a game over 90 matches for Fiorentina, against 1.60 over 84 for Juventus.

  • Juventus concede fewer

    Fiorentina concede 1.27 a game, Juventus 1.04.

  • Fiorentina games more often go over 2.5 goals

    61% of Fiorentina matches, against 43% for Juventus. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Fiorentina
Juventus
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1579.8
ELO
1665.6
90
ELO · Matches
84
1579.8
Current Team ELO
1665.6
1665.6
Current Opponent ELO
1579.8
-85.81
Current ELO Difference
85.81
0.38
Expected score
0.62
90
History Matches
84
0.04
Residual Mean
0.10
53.54
Overperformance
57.80
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.40
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.60
Goals against per game
0.40
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
2.00
2.20
Goals for per game
1.10
1.30
Goals against per game
0.60
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
2.18
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
1.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
90
Matches
84
1.48
PPG
1.83
41.1%
Win rate
52.4%
24.4%
Draw rate
26.2%
34.4%
Loss rate
21.4%
76.7%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
61.1%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
24.4%
Over 3.5 rate
23.8%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
Venue performance10 signals
100
44
Matches
42
1.77
PPG
1.62
50.0%
Win rate
45.2%
27.3%
Draw rate
26.2%
22.7%
Loss rate
28.6%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
59.5%
54.5%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
21.4%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
44
History Matches
42
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.43
Goals for per game
1.60
75.6%
Scoring rate
79.8%
56.7%
BTTS rate
45.2%
1.61
Goals for per game
1.31
81.8%
Scoring rate
73.8%
59.1%
BTTS rate
45.2%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
90
History Matches
84
1.43
Goals Mean
1.60
1.30
Goals Std
1.24
75.6%
Scored 1+ rate
79.8%
42.2%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
15.6%
Scored 3+ rate
17.9%
1.61
Venue Goals Mean
1.31
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.27
Goals against per game
1.04
73.3%
Conceding rate
59.5%
1.05
Goals against per game
1.10
68.2%
Conceding rate
64.3%
4.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
90
History Matches
84
1.27
Conceded Mean
1.04
1.03
Conceded Std
1.18
38.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.2%
12.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.7%
1.05
Venue Conceded Mean
1.10
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
40.5%
24.4%
Failed-to-score rate
20.2%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
26.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
40.5%
24.4%
Failed-to-score rate
20.2%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
26.2%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
40.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
90
History Matches
84
0.98
Result entropy
0.93
1.78
Goal Difference Std
1.71
1.97
Stability score
7.18
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
89
Eligible Matches
84
33
Lead Matches
32
78.8%
Lead Win Rate
81.3%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.86
27
Trailing Matches
21
25.9%
Non-loss rate
42.9%
7.4%
Trailing Win Rate
9.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
89
Halftime Coverage Matches
84
0.66
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.96
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.04
Rest days
77.14
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
16
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.13
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.40
57
Normal Rest History Matches
59
1.56
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.88
16
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.44
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.89
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-4.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
9
Competition Season Count
10
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.27
Portability PPG Std
0.42
0.82
Portability PPG Range
1.33
65.21
Portability Score
54.14
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
90
Clean History Matches
84
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-85.81
PPG-0.36
GF-0.16
GA0.23
PPG-3.00
PPG0.15
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate4.2%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches6
Goals Mean-0.16
Goals Std0.06
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std1.48
History Matches6
Conceded Mean0.23
Conceded Std-0.15
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate12.7%
Conceded 3+ rate1.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.35
History Matches6
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std0.07
Stability score-5.21
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.50
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-5.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.16
Portability PPG Range-0.51
Portability Score11.07
Rest days-1.09
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches11
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.28
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.32
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.46
Current Team ELO-85.81
Current Opponent ELO85.81
Current ELO Difference-171.6
Expected score-0.24
History Matches6
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-4.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Fiorentina

W
Sassuolo2–4Fiorentina2 Nov · away
Pick: Sassuolo 47% · missed
D
Fiorentina2–2Atalanta29 Oct · home
Pick: Fiorentina 38% · missed
L
Inter2–1Fiorentina25 Oct · away
Pick: Inter 70% · hit
L
Fiorentina1–3Como18 Oct · home
Pick: Como 38% · hit
L
Fiorentina0–3Frosinone29 Aug · home
Pick: Fiorentina 54% · missed

Juventus

W
Juventus2–0Napoli1 Nov · home
Pick: Juventus 38% · hit
L
Genoa2–0Juventus28 Oct · away
Pick: Juventus 54% · missed
W
Lecce0–2Juventus25 Oct · away
Pick: Lecce 34% · missed
D
Juventus2–2Rennes22 Oct · home
Pick: Juventus 60% · missed
L
Juventus0–3Lazio18 Oct · home
Pick: Juventus 52% · missed

About this match

Fiorentina and Juventus meet in Serie A on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Fiorentina win 35.4%, draw 24.7%, Juventus win 39.9%. The pick is Juventus win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.7%. Both teams to score: 49.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.