ScoreProb
Campionato San Marino Round 8 2026

Fiorentino vs Libertas

Fiorentino Home · Elo 1,494
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Libertas Away · Elo 1,463
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Fiorentino win
Fiorentino winPick
43.2%
Draw
26.6%
Libertas win
30.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.4%
No46.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.8%
Under 2.544.2%

How much we know

Fiorentino history49 matches
Libertas history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Fiorentino are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Fiorentino are rated 31 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,494 against 1,463. On rating alone Fiorentino would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.10 goals a game over 49 matches for Fiorentino, against 1.00 over 47 for Libertas.

  • Fiorentino concede fewer

    Fiorentino concede 1.53 a game, Libertas 2.04.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    51% of Fiorentino matches, against 51% for Libertas. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 6 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Fiorentino
Libertas
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1493.5
ELO
1463.0
49
ELO · Matches
47
1493.5
Current Team ELO
1463.0
1463.0
Current Opponent ELO
1493.5
30.55
Current ELO Difference
-30.55
0.54
Expected score
0.46
49
History Matches
47
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.04
49.55
Overperformance
47.52
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.80
1.80
Goals for per game
0.60
1.60
Goals against per game
3.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.20
1.70
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
2.30
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.35
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.63
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.61
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.69
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.90
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
47
1.22
PPG
1.04
34.7%
Win rate
25.5%
18.4%
Draw rate
27.7%
46.9%
Loss rate
46.8%
75.5%
Over 1.5 rate
78.7%
51.0%
Over 2.5 rate
51.1%
24.5%
Over 3.5 rate
36.2%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.19
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
23
1.00
PPG
0.91
25.0%
Win rate
17.4%
25.0%
Draw rate
39.1%
50.0%
Loss rate
43.5%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
87.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
47.8%
20.8%
Over 3.5 rate
26.1%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.07
24
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.10
Goals for per game
1.00
57.1%
Scoring rate
70.2%
36.7%
BTTS rate
57.4%
0.83
Goals for per game
0.87
54.2%
Scoring rate
69.6%
37.5%
BTTS rate
60.9%
49
History Matches
47
1.10
Goals Mean
1.00
1.23
Goals Std
0.83
57.1%
Scored 1+ rate
70.2%
28.6%
Scored 2+ rate
25.5%
20.4%
Scored 3+ rate
4.3%
0.83
Venue Goals Mean
0.87
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.53
Goals against per game
2.04
75.5%
Conceding rate
85.1%
1.67
Goals against per game
2.13
75.0%
Conceding rate
91.3%
49
History Matches
47
1.53
Conceded Mean
2.04
1.28
Conceded Std
1.88
49.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.7%
18.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
34.0%
1.67
Venue Conceded Mean
2.13
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
24.5%
Clean-sheet rate
14.9%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.8%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
8.7%
45.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
24.5%
Clean-sheet rate
14.9%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.8%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
8.7%
45.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
24.5%
Clean-sheet rate
14.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
47
0.94
Result entropy
0.96
2.05
Goal Difference Std
2.19
5.92
Stability score
3.57
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
47
12
Lead Matches
14
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
57.1%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.67
18
Trailing Matches
20
27.8%
Non-loss rate
10.0%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.91
0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.13
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
186.8
Rest days
192.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
33
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.24
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.11
14
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.88
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.43
Portability PPG Std
0.27
0.86
Portability PPG Range
0.66
53.63
Portability Score
64.68
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO30.55
PPG0.18
GF0.10
GA-0.51
PPG0.09
PPG0.40
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate9.6%
Failed-to-score rate13.1%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate16.3%
Failed-to-score rate15.4%
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.10
Goals Std0.41
Scored 1+ rate-0.13
Scored 2+ rate3.0%
Scored 3+ rate16.2%
Venue Goals Mean-0.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.71
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.51
Conceded Std-0.60
Clean-sheet rate9.6%
Conceded 2+ rate4.3%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Conceded Mean-0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.86
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.14
Stability score2.35
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.21
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate26.2%
Lead Points Retention0.22
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate17.8%
Trailing Win Rate11.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.35
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.16
Portability PPG Range0.20
Portability Score-11.05
Rest days-6.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.14
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.40
Current Team ELO30.55
Current Opponent ELO-30.55
Current ELO Difference61.11
Expected score0.09
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Fiorentino

L
Cosmos2–0Fiorentino1 Nov · away
Pick: Cosmos 51% · hit
L
Tre Fiori5–0Fiorentino28 Oct · away
Pick: Tre Fiori 69% · hit
D
Fiorentino1–1Cailungo24 Oct · home
Pick: Fiorentino 55% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Libertas

L
La Fiorita1–0Libertas31 Oct · away
Pick: La Fiorita 71% · hit
L
Folgore1–0Libertas28 Oct · away
Pick: Folgore 63% · hit
L
Libertas1–2Folgore25 Oct · home
Pick: Folgore 53% · hit
D
Cosmos1–1Libertas29 Aug · away
Pick: Cosmos 56% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Fiorentino and Libertas meet in Campionato on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Fiorentino win 43.2%, draw 26.6%, Libertas win 30.2%. The pick is Fiorentino win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.8%. Both teams to score: 53.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.