ScoreProb
Campionato San Marino Round 8 2026

Tre Penne vs Murata

Tre Penne Home · Elo 1,633
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Murata Away · Elo 1,327
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tre Penne win
Tre Penne winPick
74.0%
Draw
16.4%
Murata win
9.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes43.5%
No56.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.9%
Under 2.532.1%

How much we know

Tre Penne history56 matches
Murata history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (74.0%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Tre Penne are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Tre Penne are rated 305 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,633 against 1,327. On rating alone Tre Penne would be expected to take 85% of the points on offer.

  • Tre Penne score far more

    1.86 goals a game over 56 matches for Tre Penne, against 0.71 over 48 for Murata.

  • Tre Penne concede fewer

    Tre Penne concede 0.77 a game, Murata 2.10.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    43% of Tre Penne matches, against 48% for Murata. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 16 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tre Penne
Murata
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1632.6
ELO
1327.2
56
ELO · Matches
48
1632.6
Current Team ELO
1327.2
1327.2
Current Opponent ELO
1632.6
305.4
Current ELO Difference
-305.4
0.85
Expected score
0.15
56
History Matches
48
0.12
Residual Mean
-0.18
58.79
Overperformance
37.40
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.30
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.00
0.80
Goals for per game
0.80
0.60
Goals against per game
3.60
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
0.00
1.90
Goals for per game
0.60
0.70
Goals against per game
3.60
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
1.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.66
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.60
0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.00
1.89
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
48
1.96
PPG
0.63
55.4%
Win rate
14.6%
30.4%
Draw rate
18.8%
14.3%
Loss rate
66.7%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
79.2%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
47.9%
30.4%
Over 3.5 rate
31.3%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
24
2.07
PPG
0.63
58.6%
Win rate
12.5%
31.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
10.3%
Loss rate
62.5%
79.3%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
44.8%
Over 2.5 rate
54.2%
34.5%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
29
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.86
Goals for per game
0.71
78.6%
Scoring rate
47.9%
44.6%
BTTS rate
39.6%
1.97
Goals for per game
0.92
82.8%
Scoring rate
54.2%
48.3%
BTTS rate
54.2%
56
History Matches
48
1.86
Goals Mean
0.71
1.57
Goals Std
0.96
78.6%
Scored 1+ rate
47.9%
53.6%
Scored 2+ rate
16.7%
28.6%
Scored 3+ rate
2.1%
1.97
Venue Goals Mean
0.92
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.77
Goals against per game
2.10
55.4%
Conceding rate
85.4%
0.76
Goals against per game
2.13
55.2%
Conceding rate
91.7%
56
History Matches
48
0.77
Conceded Mean
2.10
0.82
Conceded Std
1.50
17.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
62.5%
3.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
33.3%
0.76
Venue Conceded Mean
2.13
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
44.6%
Clean-sheet rate
14.6%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
52.1%
44.8%
Clean-sheet rate
8.3%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
45.8%
44.6%
Clean-sheet rate
14.6%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
52.1%
44.8%
Clean-sheet rate
8.3%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
45.8%
44.6%
Clean-sheet rate
14.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
48
0.88
Result entropy
0.79
1.88
Goal Difference Std
1.87
11.96
Stability score
21.27
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
56
Eligible Matches
48
28
Lead Matches
7
82.1%
Lead Win Rate
57.1%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.67
14
Trailing Matches
22
50.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
28.6%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.25
0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
0.86
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.39
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.19
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
176.0
Rest days
196.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
38
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.87
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.63
14
Long Rest History Matches
18
2.21
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.67
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.39
Portability PPG Std
0.62
0.92
Portability PPG Range
1.52
56.47
Portability Score
44.51
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO305.4
PPG1.34
GF1.15
GA-1.34
PPG1.44
PPG1.20
PPG1.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate30.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.31
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate36.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches8
Goals Mean1.15
Goals Std0.62
Scored 1+ rate30.7%
Scored 2+ rate36.9%
Scored 3+ rate26.5%
Venue Goals Mean1.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std1.26
History Matches8
Conceded Mean-1.34
Conceded Std-0.68
Clean-sheet rate30.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.45
Conceded 3+ rate-0.30
Venue Conceded Mean-1.37
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-2.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.56
History Matches8
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std0.02
Stability score-9.31
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.86
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.89
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches21
Lead Win Rate25.0%
Lead Points Retention0.21
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate50.0%
Trailing Win Rate28.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean0.75
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.54
Second Half Goals For Mean0.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.79
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.24
Portability PPG Range-0.60
Portability Score11.96
Rest days-20.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match2.33
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.24
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match1.55
Current Team ELO305.4
Current Opponent ELO-305.4
Current ELO Difference610.8
Expected score0.71
History Matches8
Residual Mean0.30
Overperformance21.39
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.31

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Tre Penne

D
Folgore1–1Tre Penne1 Nov · away
Pick: Tre Penne 47% · missed
W
Juvenes / Dogana1–3Tre Penne27 Oct · away
Pick: Tre Penne 46% · hit
D
Tre Penne0–0Tre Fiori23 Oct · home
Pick: Tre Fiori 42% · missed
W
San Giovanni2–3Tre Penne29 Aug · away
Pick: Tre Penne 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Murata

L
Tre Fiori1–0Murata31 Oct · away
Pick: Tre Fiori 66% · hit
L
Virtus3–0Murata28 Oct · away
Pick: Virtus 68% · hit
D
Murata2–2Domagnano24 Oct · home
Pick: Domagnano 57% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Tre Penne and Murata meet in Campionato on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Tre Penne win 74.0%, draw 16.4%, Murata win 9.6%. The pick is Tre Penne win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.9%. Both teams to score: 43.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.