FK Sokol Saratov vs Volgar Astrakhan
Match result probability Model pick: FK Sokol Saratov win
FK Sokol Saratov winPick
39.5%
Draw
29.7%
Volgar Astrakhan win
30.7%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes45.2%
No54.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.541.4%
Under 2.558.6%
How much we know
FK Sokol Saratov history64 matches
Volgar Astrakhan history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours FK Sokol Saratov
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 15:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 16:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why FK Sokol Saratov are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Volgar Astrakhan are rated 92 Elo points higher
Elo 1,546 against 1,454. On rating alone Volgar Astrakhan would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.14 goals a game over 64 matches for FK Sokol Saratov, against 1.11 over 70 for Volgar Astrakhan.
-
Volgar Astrakhan concede fewer
FK Sokol Saratov concede 1.22 a game, Volgar Astrakhan 0.91.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
36% of FK Sokol Saratov matches, against 31% for Volgar Astrakhan. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Volgar Astrakhan@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1453.9
ELO
1546.3
64
ELO · Matches
70
1453.9
Current Team ELO
1546.3
1546.3
Current Opponent ELO
1453.9
-92.32
Current ELO Difference
92.32
0.37
Expected score
0.63
64
History Matches
70
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.03
48.06
Overperformance
52.65
0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.60
1.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.60
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.10
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
0.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.02
Overall performance9 signals 90
64
Matches
70
1.03
PPG
1.53
23.4%
Win rate
38.6%
32.8%
Draw rate
37.1%
43.8%
Loss rate
24.3%
60.9%
Over 1.5 rate
58.6%
35.9%
Over 2.5 rate
31.4%
23.4%
Over 3.5 rate
12.9%
2.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.21
Venue performance10 signals 100
35
Matches
34
1.14
PPG
1.35
25.7%
Win rate
32.4%
37.1%
Draw rate
38.2%
37.1%
Loss rate
29.4%
68.6%
Over 1.5 rate
61.8%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
35.3%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
14.7%
3.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.09
35
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.14
Goals for per game
1.11
57.8%
Scoring rate
68.6%
42.2%
BTTS rate
41.4%
1.46
Goals for per game
1.00
62.9%
Scoring rate
67.6%
48.6%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.83
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
64
History Matches
70
1.14
Goals Mean
1.11
2.19
Goals Std
1.02
57.8%
Scored 1+ rate
68.6%
18.8%
Scored 2+ rate
31.4%
9.4%
Scored 3+ rate
8.6%
1.46
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.22
Goals against per game
0.91
71.9%
Conceding rate
58.6%
1.31
Goals against per game
1.09
74.3%
Conceding rate
70.6%
1.17
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
64
History Matches
70
1.22
Conceded Mean
0.91
1.01
Conceded Std
0.97
37.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
24.3%
10.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.1%
1.31
Venue Conceded Mean
1.09
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
41.4%
42.2%
Failed-to-score rate
31.4%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
37.1%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
41.4%
42.2%
Failed-to-score rate
31.4%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
37.1%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
41.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
64
History Matches
70
0.97
Result entropy
0.98
2.51
Goal Difference Std
1.21
2.84
Stability score
1.78
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
64
Eligible Matches
70
12
Lead Matches
16
58.3%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.79
23
Trailing Matches
10
8.7%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
77.08
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
41
Normal Rest History Matches
47
0.93
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.47
21
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.24
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.68
Competition & season17 signals 170
6
Matches
6
1.00
PPG
1.00
16.7%
Win rate
16.7%
50.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
0.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.69
6
Current Competition Matches
6
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-0.17
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.17
7
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.41
Portability PPG Std
0.43
1.07
Portability PPG Range
1.33
55.17
Portability Score
53.73
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
64
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-92.32
PPG-0.50
GF0.03
GA0.30
PPG0.00
PPG-0.21
PPG0.00
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate10.8%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate4.8%
History Matches-6
Goals Mean0.03
Goals Std1.16
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate0.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.46
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.27
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean0.30
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate13.2%
Conceded 3+ rate3.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.23
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.21
History Matches-6
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std1.29
Stability score1.06
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.12
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches13
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range-0.26
Portability Score1.43
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.54
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.44
Current Team ELO-92.32
Current Opponent ELO92.32
Current ELO Difference-184.6
Expected score-0.26
History Matches-6
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.60
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.17
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
FK Sokol Saratov
W
Dinamo Bryansk0–1FK Sokol Saratov31 Oct · away
Pick: Dinamo Bryansk 44% · missed W
FK Sokol Saratov3–0Rodina Moskva II24 Oct · home
Pick: FK Sokol Saratov 37% · hit D
Novosibirsk0–0FK Sokol Saratov18 Oct · away
Pick: Novosibirsk 44% · missed L
Alaniya Vladikavkaz2–0FK Sokol Saratov4 Oct · away
Pick: Alaniya Vladikavkaz 47% · hit L
Rodina Moskva II4–0FK Sokol Saratov30 Aug · away
Pick: Rodina Moskva II 51% · hit Volgar Astrakhan
D
Kaluga2–2Volgar Astrakhan31 Oct · away
Pick: Kaluga 36% · missed L
Volgar Astrakhan0–1Dinamo Bryansk24 Oct · home
Pick: Volgar Astrakhan 44% · missed D
Rodina Moskva II1–1Volgar Astrakhan18 Oct · away
Pick: Rodina Moskva II 44% · missed D
Dinamo Vladivostok0–0Volgar Astrakhan4 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 38% · hit D
Dinamo Bryansk1–1Volgar Astrakhan30 Aug · away
Pick: Dinamo Bryansk 39% · missed About this match
FK Sokol Saratov and Volgar Astrakhan meet in Second League A - Division A Gold on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Lokomotiv, Saratov. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: FK Sokol Saratov win 39.5%, draw 29.7%, Volgar Astrakhan win 30.7%. The pick is FK Sokol Saratov win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.4%. Both teams to score: 45.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.