ScoreProb
Esiliiga A Estonia Round 36 2026

Flora II vs FCI Levadia II

Flora II Home · Elo 1,531
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
FCI Levadia II Away · Elo 1,513
Sportland Arena, Tallinn Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Flora II win
Flora II winPick
52.9%
Draw
20.6%
FCI Levadia II win
26.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.5%
No36.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.573.5%
Under 2.526.5%

How much we know

Flora II history66 matches
FCI Levadia II history66 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 10:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Flora II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,531 against 1,513. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.85 goals a game over 66 matches for Flora II, against 1.83 over 66 for FCI Levadia II.

  • Flora II concede fewer

    Flora II concede 1.61 a game, FCI Levadia II 1.89.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    68% of Flora II matches, against 71% for FCI Levadia II. The model puts this match at 74% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Flora II
FCI Levadia II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1530.8
ELO
1512.9
66
ELO · Matches
66
1530.8
Current Team ELO
1512.9
1512.9
Current Opponent ELO
1530.8
17.94
Current ELO Difference
-17.94
0.53
Expected score
0.47
66
History Matches
66
0.02
Residual Mean
0.02
51.39
Overperformance
51.42
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.29
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
0.80
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
2.20
1.50
Goals for per game
2.20
1.10
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.56
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.56
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
66
1.42
PPG
1.35
39.4%
Win rate
39.4%
24.2%
Draw rate
16.7%
36.4%
Loss rate
43.9%
84.8%
Over 1.5 rate
90.9%
68.2%
Over 2.5 rate
71.2%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
51.5%
2.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.13
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
30
1.74
PPG
1.23
51.6%
Win rate
36.7%
19.4%
Draw rate
13.3%
29.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
90.3%
Over 1.5 rate
86.7%
71.0%
Over 2.5 rate
63.3%
54.8%
Over 3.5 rate
46.7%
2.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
31
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.85
Goals for per game
1.83
77.3%
Scoring rate
77.3%
56.1%
BTTS rate
62.1%
2.23
Goals for per game
1.50
83.9%
Scoring rate
70.0%
51.6%
BTTS rate
53.3%
2.28
Goals for per game
1.88
84.0%
Scoring rate
87.5%
64.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
66
History Matches
66
1.85
Goals Mean
1.83
1.67
Goals Std
1.52
77.3%
Scored 1+ rate
77.3%
51.5%
Scored 2+ rate
56.1%
30.3%
Scored 3+ rate
28.8%
2.23
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.61
Goals against per game
1.89
71.2%
Conceding rate
83.3%
1.55
Goals against per game
1.93
64.5%
Conceding rate
83.3%
1.68
Goals against per game
1.83
76.0%
Conceding rate
79.2%
66
History Matches
66
1.61
Conceded Mean
1.89
1.47
Conceded Std
1.30
47.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
63.6%
24.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.8%
1.55
Venue Conceded Mean
1.93
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
35.5%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
16.1%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
35.5%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
16.1%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
66
0.98
Result entropy
0.93
2.52
Goal Difference Std
2.13
1.84
Stability score
6.52
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
66
26
Lead Matches
23
80.8%
Lead Win Rate
73.9%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.80
22
Trailing Matches
25
22.7%
Non-loss rate
8.0%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
4.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.88
First Half Goals For Mean
0.98
0.77
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
0.97
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.03
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.79
Rest days
77.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
6
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
39
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.49
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.21
22
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.36
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.52
Competition & season17 signals
170
25
Matches
24
1.64
PPG
1.42
48.0%
Win rate
45.8%
20.0%
Draw rate
4.2%
32.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
92.0%
Over 1.5 rate
91.7%
88.0%
Over 2.5 rate
79.2%
68.0%
Over 3.5 rate
58.3%
2.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
25
Current Competition Matches
24
1.64
Current Competition PPG
1.42
0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.04
5
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.14
Portability PPG Std
0.17
0.31
Portability PPG Range
0.42
77.57
Portability Score
74.49
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
66
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO17.94
PPG0.08
GF0.02
GA-0.29
PPG0.22
PPG0.51
PPG-0.60
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate12.1%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate18.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.02
Goals Std0.15
Scored 1+ rate0.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate1.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.73
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.33
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.29
Conceded Std0.16
Clean-sheet rate12.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.38
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.43
History Matches0
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std0.39
Stability score-4.68
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.55
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate6.9%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate14.7%
Trailing Win Rate5.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.22
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.56
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.03
Portability PPG Range-0.11
Portability Score3.08
Rest days-1.23
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.28
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.16
Current Team ELO17.94
Current Opponent ELO-17.94
Current ELO Difference35.89
Expected score0.05
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.35

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Flora II

L
Flora II1–2Tartu Welco31 Oct · home
Pick: Tartu Welco 49% · hit
D
Viimsi1–1Flora II26 Oct · away
Pick: Viimsi 63% · missed
W
Flora II3–2Nõmme United II22 Oct · home
Pick: Flora II 61% · hit
W
Flora II5–0Tallinna Kalev29 Aug · home
Pick: Flora II 47% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

FCI Levadia II

W
Viimsi0–2FCI Levadia II1 Nov · away
Pick: Viimsi 66% · missed
D
Elva3–3FCI Levadia II25 Oct · away
Pick: Elva 54% · missed
W
Tallinna Kalev1–2FCI Levadia II19 Oct · away
Pick: Tallinna Kalev 46% · missed
W
FCI Levadia II1–0Nõmme Kalju II14 Oct · home
Pick: FCI Levadia II 64% · hit
L
Maardu4–2FCI Levadia II29 Aug · away
Pick: Maardu 48% · hit

About this match

Flora II and FCI Levadia II meet in Esiliiga A on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 10:30 UTC. The match is played at Sportland Arena, Tallinn. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Flora II win 52.9%, draw 20.6%, FCI Levadia II win 26.5%. The pick is Flora II win. Over 2.5 goals: 73.5%. Both teams to score: 63.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.