ScoreProb
Esiliiga A Estonia Round 36 2026

Viimsi vs Nõmme Kalju II

Viimsi Home · Elo 1,581
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Nõmme Kalju II Away · Elo 1,419
Viimsi Staadion Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Viimsi win
Viimsi winPick
75.4%
Draw
13.2%
Nõmme Kalju II win
11.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.9%
No47.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.579.9%
Under 2.520.1%

How much we know

Viimsi history79 matches
Nõmme Kalju II history63 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 10:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (75.4%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Viimsi are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Viimsi are rated 161 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,581 against 1,419. On rating alone Viimsi would be expected to take 72% of the points on offer.

  • Viimsi score more

    2.03 goals a game over 79 matches for Viimsi, against 1.46 over 63 for Nõmme Kalju II.

  • Viimsi concede fewer

    Viimsi concede 1.19 a game, Nõmme Kalju II 2.41.

  • Nõmme Kalju II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    62% of Viimsi matches, against 78% for Nõmme Kalju II. The model puts this match at 80% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Viimsi
Nõmme Kalju II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1580.8
ELO
1419.3
79
ELO · Matches
63
1580.8
Current Team ELO
1419.3
1419.3
Current Opponent ELO
1580.8
161.5
Current ELO Difference
-161.5
0.72
Expected score
0.28
79
History Matches
63
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.06
53.62
Overperformance
45.54
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.30
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
0.00
3.20
Goals for per game
0.60
1.00
Goals against per game
3.60
80.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
0.20
2.70
Goals for per game
0.90
1.20
Goals against per game
3.10
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
2.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.42
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.10
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
2.29
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.54
Overall performance9 signals
90
79
Matches
63
1.80
PPG
1.06
55.7%
Win rate
30.2%
12.7%
Draw rate
15.9%
31.6%
Loss rate
54.0%
82.3%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
62.0%
Over 2.5 rate
77.8%
41.8%
Over 3.5 rate
55.6%
2.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.41
Venue performance10 signals
100
38
Matches
30
2.03
PPG
0.93
63.2%
Win rate
26.7%
13.2%
Draw rate
13.3%
23.7%
Loss rate
60.0%
89.5%
Over 1.5 rate
90.0%
68.4%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
52.6%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.40
38
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.03
Goals for per game
1.46
79.7%
Scoring rate
71.4%
45.6%
BTTS rate
58.7%
2.39
Goals for per game
1.43
89.5%
Scoring rate
73.3%
55.3%
BTTS rate
60.0%
1.88
Goals for per game
1.38
84.0%
Scoring rate
70.8%
52.0%
BTTS rate
62.5%
79
History Matches
63
2.03
Goals Mean
1.46
1.66
Goals Std
1.28
79.7%
Scored 1+ rate
71.4%
54.4%
Scored 2+ rate
44.4%
34.2%
Scored 3+ rate
20.6%
2.39
Venue Goals Mean
1.43
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.19
Goals against per game
2.41
63.3%
Conceding rate
84.1%
1.21
Goals against per game
2.53
65.8%
Conceding rate
83.3%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.67
64.0%
Conceding rate
87.5%
79
History Matches
63
1.19
Conceded Mean
2.41
1.39
Conceded Std
1.72
30.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
66.7%
11.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
42.9%
1.21
Venue Conceded Mean
2.53
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
15.9%
20.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
34.2%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
10.5%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
15.9%
20.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
34.2%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
10.5%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
15.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
79
History Matches
63
0.87
Result entropy
0.90
2.53
Goal Difference Std
2.41
13.37
Stability score
10.20
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
79
Eligible Matches
63
31
Lead Matches
19
87.1%
Lead Win Rate
57.9%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.65
18
Trailing Matches
22
33.3%
Non-loss rate
9.1%
22.2%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
79
Halftime Coverage Matches
63
0.78
First Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
1.24
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.51
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.77
Rest days
76.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.57
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.86
46
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.98
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.97
25
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.60
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
25
Matches
24
1.76
PPG
0.79
52.0%
Win rate
20.8%
20.0%
Draw rate
16.7%
28.0%
Loss rate
62.5%
84.0%
Over 1.5 rate
91.7%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
32.0%
Over 3.5 rate
62.5%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.17
25
Current Competition Matches
24
1.76
Current Competition PPG
0.79
0.88
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.29
7
Competition Season Count
4
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.73
Portability PPG Std
0.23
2.18
Portability PPG Range
0.46
40.79
Portability Score
68.57
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
79
Clean History Matches
63
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO161.5
PPG0.73
GF0.56
GA-1.22
PPG0.97
PPG1.09
PPG2.40
PPG1.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate20.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate17.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches16
Goals Mean0.56
Goals Std0.38
Scored 1+ rate8.3%
Scored 2+ rate10.0%
Scored 3+ rate13.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.96
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.59
History Matches16
Conceded Mean-1.22
Conceded Std-0.34
Clean-sheet rate20.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.36
Conceded 3+ rate-0.31
Venue Conceded Mean-1.32
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.24
History Matches16
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.11
Stability score3.17
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.76
Eligible Matches16
Lead Matches12
Lead Win Rate29.2%
Lead Points Retention0.25
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate24.2%
Trailing Win Rate22.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches16
First Half Goals For Mean-0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.35
Second Half Goals For Mean0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.88
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.97
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.17
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count4
Portability PPG Std0.50
Portability PPG Range1.72
Portability Score-27.78
Rest days-1.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.71
Normal Rest History Matches15
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.01
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.31
Current Team ELO161.5
Current Opponent ELO-161.5
Current ELO Difference322.9
Expected score0.43
History Matches16
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance8.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.37

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Viimsi

L
Viimsi0–2FCI Levadia II1 Nov · home
Pick: Viimsi 66% · missed
D
Viimsi1–1Flora II26 Oct · home
Pick: Viimsi 63% · missed
W
FC Tallinn0–3Viimsi19 Oct · away
Pick: Viimsi 56% · hit
W
Tartu Welco1–3Viimsi29 Aug · away
Pick: Tartu Welco 52% · missed
W
Viimsi4–1Nõmme United II24 Aug · home
Pick: Viimsi 63% · hit

Nõmme Kalju II

L
Tallinna Kalev3–1Nõmme Kalju II29 Oct · away
Pick: Tallinna Kalev 68% · hit
L
Nõmme Kalju II1–2FC Tallinn24 Oct · home
Pick: FC Tallinn 44% · hit
D
Nõmme Kalju II0–0Elva18 Oct · home
Pick: Elva 67% · missed
L
FCI Levadia II1–0Nõmme Kalju II14 Oct · away
Pick: FCI Levadia II 64% · hit
W
FC Tallinn0–2Nõmme Kalju II29 Aug · away
Pick: FC Tallinn 57% · missed

About this match

Viimsi and Nõmme Kalju II meet in Esiliiga A on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 10:30 UTC. The match is played at Viimsi Staadion. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Viimsi win 75.4%, draw 13.2%, Nõmme Kalju II win 11.4%. The pick is Viimsi win. Over 2.5 goals: 79.9%. Both teams to score: 52.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.