ScoreProb
Premier League Malta Round 12 2026

Floriana vs Hibernians

Floriana Home · Elo 1,668
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hibernians Away · Elo 1,480
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 4 Nov, 07:21 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Floriana win
Floriana winPick
65.8%
Draw
20.3%
Hibernians win
13.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.9%
No51.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.7%
Under 2.546.3%

How much we know

Floriana history64 matches
Hibernians history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 3 d 5 h ahead
    4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (65.8%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Floriana are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Floriana are rated 188 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,668 against 1,480. On rating alone Floriana would be expected to take 75% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.56 goals a game over 64 matches for Floriana, against 1.47 over 57 for Hibernians.

  • Floriana concede fewer

    Floriana concede 0.89 a game, Hibernians 1.46.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    47% of Floriana matches, against 54% for Hibernians. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Floriana
Hibernians
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1667.9
ELO
1479.7
64
ELO · Matches
57
1667.9
Current Team ELO
1479.7
1479.7
Current Opponent ELO
1667.9
188.3
Current ELO Difference
-188.3
0.75
Expected score
0.25
64
History Matches
57
0.14
Residual Mean
-0.01
60.85
Overperformance
49.27
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
0.80
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
0.90
1.40
Goals for per game
0.90
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.72
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.08
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.42
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
57
2.02
PPG
1.35
57.8%
Win rate
36.8%
28.1%
Draw rate
24.6%
14.1%
Loss rate
38.6%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.7%
46.9%
Over 2.5 rate
54.4%
23.4%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
26
1.92
PPG
1.12
54.1%
Win rate
30.8%
29.7%
Draw rate
19.2%
16.2%
Loss rate
50.0%
81.1%
Over 1.5 rate
88.5%
40.5%
Over 2.5 rate
65.4%
18.9%
Over 3.5 rate
38.5%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
37
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.56
Goals for per game
1.47
81.3%
Scoring rate
73.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
57.9%
1.43
Goals for per game
1.42
75.7%
Scoring rate
73.1%
48.6%
BTTS rate
65.4%
2.50
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
64
History Matches
57
1.56
Goals Mean
1.47
1.09
Goals Std
1.22
81.3%
Scored 1+ rate
73.7%
51.6%
Scored 2+ rate
47.4%
18.8%
Scored 3+ rate
19.3%
1.43
Venue Goals Mean
1.42
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.89
Goals against per game
1.46
56.3%
Conceding rate
80.7%
0.89
Goals against per game
1.77
59.5%
Conceding rate
92.3%
0.00
Goals against per game
0.50
0.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
64
History Matches
57
0.89
Conceded Mean
1.46
1.08
Conceded Std
1.14
20.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.4%
6.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.5%
0.89
Venue Conceded Mean
1.77
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
19.3%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
40.5%
Clean-sheet rate
7.7%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
19.3%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
40.5%
Clean-sheet rate
7.7%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
19.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
57
0.86
Result entropy
0.98
1.55
Goal Difference Std
1.70
13.58
Stability score
1.68
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
57
29
Lead Matches
21
86.2%
Lead Win Rate
76.2%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.83
9
Trailing Matches
20
44.4%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
33.3%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.78
First Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.85
Rest days
77.75
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
5
2.60
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.80
35
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.83
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.14
23
Long Rest History Matches
16
2.13
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.75
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
3.00
PPG
1.50
100.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
8
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.17
Portability PPG Std
0.81
0.43
Portability PPG Range
1.78
74.68
Portability Score
38.20
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO188.3
PPG0.66
GF0.09
GA-0.57
PPG1.50
PPG0.80
PPG0.20
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate24.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate32.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches7
Goals Mean0.09
Goals Std-0.13
Scored 1+ rate7.6%
Scored 2+ rate4.2%
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.01
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.03
History Matches7
Conceded Mean-0.57
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate24.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.20
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-0.88
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.64
History Matches7
Result entropy-0.12
Goal Difference Std-0.15
Stability score11.90
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.67
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate10.0%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate19.4%
Trailing Win Rate23.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.34
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.64
Portability PPG Range-1.35
Portability Score36.49
Rest days0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.80
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.69
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.38
Current Team ELO188.3
Current Opponent ELO-188.3
Current ELO Difference376.5
Expected score0.49
History Matches7
Residual Mean0.15
Overperformance11.58
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Floriana

L
Floriana0–1Valletta FC1 Nov · home
Pick: Floriana 44% · missed
L
Floriana1–2Zabbar St. Patrick26 Oct · home
Pick: Floriana 69% · missed
D
Birkirkara1–1Floriana22 Oct · away
Pick: Floriana 36% · missed
D
Floriana3–3Mosta18 Oct · home
Pick: Floriana 62% · missed
D
Hamrun Spartans1–1Floriana29 Aug · away
Pick: Floriana 38% · missed

Hibernians

D
Mosta2–2Hibernians26 Oct · away
Pick: Mosta 46% · missed
W
Hibernians2–1Gzira United22 Oct · home
Pick: Hibernians 60% · hit
W
Hibernians1–0Birzebbuga18 Oct · home
Pick: Hibernians 67% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Floriana and Hibernians meet in Premier League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 4 Nov, 07:21 UTC: Floriana win 65.8%, draw 20.3%, Hibernians win 13.8%. The pick is Floriana win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.7%. Both teams to score: 48.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.