ScoreProb
U19 Bundesliga Germany Preliminary 2026

Fortuna Köln U19 vs Kaiserslautern U19

Fortuna Köln U19 Home · Elo 1,494
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kaiserslautern U19 Away · Elo 1,593
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kaiserslautern U19 win
Fortuna Köln U19 win
21.3%
Draw
20.2%
Kaiserslautern U19 winPick
58.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes67.1%
No32.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.571.8%
Under 2.528.2%

How much we know

Fortuna Köln U19 history16 matches
Kaiserslautern U19 history40 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Kaiserslautern U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Kaiserslautern U19 are rated 98 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,593 against 1,494. On rating alone Kaiserslautern U19 would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Kaiserslautern U19 score more

    1.88 goals a game over 16 matches for Fortuna Köln U19, against 2.30 over 40 for Kaiserslautern U19.

  • Kaiserslautern U19 concede fewer

    Fortuna Köln U19 concede 2.25 a game, Kaiserslautern U19 1.38.

  • Fortuna Köln U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    88% of Fortuna Köln U19 matches, against 75% for Kaiserslautern U19. The model puts this match at 72% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Fortuna Köln U19
Kaiserslautern U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1494.1
ELO
1592.5
16
ELO · Matches
40
1494.1
Current Team ELO
1592.5
1592.5
Current Opponent ELO
1494.1
-98.42
Current ELO Difference
98.42
0.36
Expected score
0.64
16
History Matches
40
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.11
49.64
Overperformance
57.57
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
2.20
2.80
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.70
1.80
Goals for per game
2.20
2.20
Goals against per game
1.70
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.25
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.55
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.16
Overall performance9 signals
90
16
Matches
40
1.38
PPG
1.95
37.5%
Win rate
60.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
15.0%
37.5%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
85.0%
87.5%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
56.3%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.07
Venue performance10 signals
100
9
Matches
20
1.00
PPG
1.90
22.2%
Win rate
60.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
10.0%
44.4%
Loss rate
30.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
65.0%
77.8%
Over 3.5 rate
45.0%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
9
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.88
Goals for per game
2.30
87.5%
Scoring rate
90.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
1.78
Goals for per game
2.00
88.9%
Scoring rate
85.0%
88.9%
BTTS rate
55.0%
1.75
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
16
History Matches
40
1.88
Goals Mean
2.30
1.22
Goals Std
1.50
87.5%
Scored 1+ rate
90.0%
62.5%
Scored 2+ rate
72.5%
25.0%
Scored 3+ rate
40.0%
1.78
Venue Goals Mean
2.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.25
Goals against per game
1.38
87.5%
Conceding rate
65.0%
3.00
Goals against per game
1.45
100.0%
Conceding rate
65.0%
2.50
Goals against per game
0.50
75.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
16
History Matches
40
2.25
Conceded Mean
1.38
1.64
Conceded Std
1.39
62.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
37.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
3.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.45
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
35.0%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
35.0%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
15.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
35.0%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
35.0%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
15.0%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
35.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
16
History Matches
40
0.99
Result entropy
0.85
2.39
Goal Difference Std
2.07
1.49
Stability score
14.65
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
16
Eligible Matches
40
4
Lead Matches
19
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
84.2%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.84
7
Trailing Matches
10
42.9%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
16
Halftime Coverage Matches
40
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
1.13
1.19
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
1.25
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.18
1.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.04
Rest days
76.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
8
Normal Rest History Matches
13
1.25
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
7
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.88
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
2
1.00
PPG
2.00
25.0%
Win rate
50.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
4
Current Competition Matches
2
1.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
3
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.32
Portability PPG Std
0.14
0.64
Portability PPG Range
0.28
61.11
Portability Score
78.17
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
16
Clean History Matches
40
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-98.42
PPG-0.58
GF-0.43
GA0.88
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.90
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-24
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Failed-to-score rate2.5%
History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate-0.35
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-24
Goals Mean-0.43
Goals Std-0.28
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Goals Mean-0.22
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.27
History Matches-24
Conceded Mean0.88
Conceded Std0.25
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Conceded 2+ rate22.5%
Conceded 3+ rate17.5%
Venue Conceded Mean1.55
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.02
History Matches-24
Result entropy0.13
Goal Difference Std0.33
Stability score-13.16
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.04
Eligible Matches-24
Lead Matches-15
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate12.9%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-24
First Half Goals For Mean-0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean0.46
Second Half Goals For Mean0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.41
Current Competition Matches2
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.75
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.18
Portability PPG Range0.36
Portability Score-17.06
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.75
Long Rest History Matches-19
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.60
Current Team ELO-98.42
Current Opponent ELO98.42
Current ELO Difference-196.8
Expected score-0.28
History Matches-24
Residual Mean-0.12
Overperformance-7.93
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Fortuna Köln U19

L
Köln U193–0Fortuna Köln U1931 Oct · away
Pick: Köln U19 82% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Kaiserslautern U19

L
Kaiserslautern U190–1Wehen Wiesbaden U191 Nov · home
Pick: Kaiserslautern U19 60% · missed
W
Mainz 05 U190–3Kaiserslautern U1925 Oct · away
Pick: Mainz 05 U19 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Fortuna Köln U19 and Kaiserslautern U19 meet in U19 Bundesliga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Fortuna Köln U19 win 21.3%, draw 20.2%, Kaiserslautern U19 win 58.5%. The pick is Kaiserslautern U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.8%. Both teams to score: 67.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.