ScoreProb
Oberliga - Mittelrhein Germany Mittelrhein - 10 2026

Frechen vs Wegberg-Beeck

Frechen Home · Elo 1,533
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Wegberg-Beeck Away · Elo 1,525
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Wegberg-Beeck win
Frechen win
36.4%
Draw
20.7%
Wegberg-Beeck winPick
42.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

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Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes67.1%
No32.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.571.2%
Under 2.528.8%

How much we know

Frechen history45 matches
Wegberg-Beeck history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Wegberg-Beeck are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,533 against 1,525. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.09 goals a game over 45 matches for Frechen, against 1.91 over 46 for Wegberg-Beeck.

  • Wegberg-Beeck concede fewer

    Frechen concede 1.67 a game, Wegberg-Beeck 1.50.

  • Wegberg-Beeck games more often go over 2.5 goals

    67% of Frechen matches, against 76% for Wegberg-Beeck. The model puts this match at 71% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 11 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Frechen
Wegberg-Beeck
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1533.0
ELO
1524.7
45
ELO · Matches
46
1533.0
Current Team ELO
1524.7
1524.7
Current Opponent ELO
1533.0
8.30
Current ELO Difference
-8.30
0.51
Expected score
0.49
45
History Matches
46
0.04
Residual Mean
0.03
52.60
Overperformance
51.86
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.60
3.20
Goals for per game
1.80
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.80
2.50
Goals for per game
1.80
1.90
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.96
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.40
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.97
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
3.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.33
Overall performance9 signals
90
45
Matches
46
1.67
PPG
1.54
51.1%
Win rate
45.7%
13.3%
Draw rate
17.4%
35.6%
Loss rate
37.0%
86.7%
Over 1.5 rate
80.4%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
76.1%
55.6%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.23
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
23
1.57
PPG
1.48
47.8%
Win rate
43.5%
13.0%
Draw rate
17.4%
39.1%
Loss rate
39.1%
95.7%
Over 1.5 rate
82.6%
73.9%
Over 2.5 rate
73.9%
60.9%
Over 3.5 rate
39.1%
2.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
23
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.09
Goals for per game
1.91
82.2%
Scoring rate
78.3%
64.4%
BTTS rate
58.7%
2.39
Goals for per game
1.61
87.0%
Scoring rate
78.3%
69.6%
BTTS rate
65.2%
45
History Matches
46
2.09
Goals Mean
1.91
1.77
Goals Std
1.61
82.2%
Scored 1+ rate
78.3%
55.6%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
33.3%
Scored 3+ rate
34.8%
2.39
Venue Goals Mean
1.61
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.67
Goals against per game
1.50
82.2%
Conceding rate
73.9%
1.78
Goals against per game
1.57
82.6%
Conceding rate
78.3%
45
History Matches
46
1.67
Conceded Mean
1.50
1.46
Conceded Std
1.19
40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
20.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.6%
1.78
Venue Conceded Mean
1.57
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
17.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
17.8%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
17.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
17.8%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
17.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
45
History Matches
46
0.89
Result entropy
0.94
2.65
Goal Difference Std
2.23
10.85
Stability score
6.24
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
43
Eligible Matches
44
15
Lead Matches
19
93.3%
Lead Win Rate
78.9%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
0.82
12
Trailing Matches
9
33.3%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
43
Halftime Coverage Matches
44
1.05
First Half Goals For Mean
0.93
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
1.09
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.02
1.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.02
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
152.2
Rest days
118.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
23
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.61
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.74
21
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.76
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.27
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.09
Portability PPG Std
0.06
0.18
Portability PPG Range
0.12
84.80
Portability Score
89.14
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
45
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO8.30
PPG0.12
GF0.18
GA0.17
PPG0.09
PPG0.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.18
Goals Std0.16
Scored 1+ rate4.0%
Scored 2+ rate5.6%
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.78
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.56
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.17
Conceded Std0.27
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate0.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.22
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.20
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.41
Stability score4.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std2.03
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate14.4%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate11.1%
Trailing Win Rate13.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.03
Portability PPG Range0.06
Portability Score-4.34
Rest days34.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.13
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.49
Current Team ELO8.30
Current Opponent ELO-8.30
Current ELO Difference16.61
Expected score0.02
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.74
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Frechen

W
Eintracht Hohkeppel3–5Frechen25 Oct · away
Pick: Eintracht Hohkeppel 51% · missed
W
Frechen2–1Bornheim18 Oct · home
Pick: Frechen 56% · hit
W
Frechen1–0VfL Vichttal4 Oct · home
Pick: VfL Vichttal 44% · missed
W
Frechen4–0Chlodwig Zulpich30 Aug · home
Pick: Frechen 69% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Wegberg-Beeck

W
Wegberg-Beeck1–0Neunkirchen-Seelscheid25 Oct · home
Pick: Wegberg-Beeck 72% · hit
W
Chlodwig Zulpich0–2Wegberg-Beeck18 Oct · away
Pick: Wegberg-Beeck 38% · hit
W
Porz0–1Wegberg-Beeck4 Oct · away
Pick: Wegberg-Beeck 67% · hit
D
Eintracht Hohkeppel1–1Wegberg-Beeck30 Aug · away
Pick: Eintracht Hohkeppel 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Frechen and Wegberg-Beeck meet in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Frechen win 36.4%, draw 20.7%, Wegberg-Beeck win 42.9%. The pick is Wegberg-Beeck win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.2%. Both teams to score: 67.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.