ScoreProb
Eliteserien Norway Round 26 2026

Fredrikstad vs Brann

Fredrikstad Home · Elo 1,567
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Brann Away · Elo 1,596
Fredrikstad Stadion Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Brann win
Fredrikstad win
27.0%
Draw
26.6%
Brann winPick
46.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.0%
No42.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.2%
Under 2.541.8%

How much we know

Fredrikstad history76 matches
Brann history86 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 18:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Brann are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Brann are rated 29 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,596 against 1,567. On rating alone Brann would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Brann score more

    1.38 goals a game over 76 matches for Fredrikstad, against 1.93 over 86 for Brann.

  • Defences are close

    Fredrikstad concede 1.29 a game, Brann 1.40.

  • Brann games more often go over 2.5 goals

    47% of Fredrikstad matches, against 73% for Brann. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Fredrikstad
Brann
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1567.2
ELO
1596.4
76
ELO · Matches
86
1567.2
Current Team ELO
1596.4
1596.4
Current Opponent ELO
1567.2
-29.25
Current ELO Difference
29.25
0.46
Expected score
0.54
76
History Matches
86
0.03
Residual Mean
0.05
52.63
Overperformance
54.31
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.25
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
2.40
2.00
Goals for per game
2.40
1.00
Goals against per game
0.80
80.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
2.20
1.40
Goals for per game
2.30
1.30
Goals against per game
1.20
50.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.96
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.51
Overall performance9 signals
90
76
Matches
86
1.41
PPG
1.70
39.5%
Win rate
50.0%
22.4%
Draw rate
19.8%
38.2%
Loss rate
30.2%
71.1%
Over 1.5 rate
86.0%
47.4%
Over 2.5 rate
73.3%
31.6%
Over 3.5 rate
43.0%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
44
1.61
PPG
1.59
45.5%
Win rate
45.5%
24.2%
Draw rate
22.7%
30.3%
Loss rate
31.8%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
93.2%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
72.7%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
40.9%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.21
33
History Matches
44
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.38
Goals for per game
1.93
68.4%
Scoring rate
82.6%
50.0%
BTTS rate
66.3%
1.45
Goals for per game
1.98
75.8%
Scoring rate
81.8%
60.6%
BTTS rate
63.6%
1.06
Goals for per game
2.12
70.6%
Scoring rate
94.1%
52.9%
BTTS rate
82.4%
76
History Matches
86
1.38
Goals Mean
1.93
1.40
Goals Std
1.45
68.4%
Scored 1+ rate
82.6%
36.8%
Scored 2+ rate
58.1%
21.1%
Scored 3+ rate
30.2%
1.45
Venue Goals Mean
1.98
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.29
Goals against per game
1.40
76.3%
Conceding rate
81.4%
1.12
Goals against per game
1.41
81.8%
Conceding rate
79.5%
1.59
Goals against per game
1.59
82.4%
Conceding rate
88.2%
76
History Matches
86
1.29
Conceded Mean
1.40
1.10
Conceded Std
1.01
34.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.7%
11.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.0%
1.12
Venue Conceded Mean
1.41
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.7%
Clean-sheet rate
18.6%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
11.8%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
5.9%
23.7%
Clean-sheet rate
18.6%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
23.7%
Clean-sheet rate
18.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
76
History Matches
86
0.97
Result entropy
0.94
1.87
Goal Difference Std
1.99
2.65
Stability score
6.36
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
75
Eligible Matches
85
22
Lead Matches
37
90.9%
Lead Win Rate
86.5%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.89
27
Trailing Matches
25
29.6%
Non-loss rate
32.0%
7.4%
Trailing Win Rate
16.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
75
Halftime Coverage Matches
85
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.72
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.05
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.18
Rest days
77.14
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
17
1.83
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.94
46
Normal Rest History Matches
45
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.56
23
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.48
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.74
Competition & season17 signals
170
17
Matches
17
1.35
PPG
1.47
41.2%
Win rate
47.1%
11.8%
Draw rate
5.9%
47.1%
Loss rate
47.1%
76.5%
Over 1.5 rate
94.1%
52.9%
Over 2.5 rate
88.2%
29.4%
Over 3.5 rate
47.1%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
17
Current Competition Matches
17
1.35
Current Competition PPG
1.47
-0.53
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.53
9
Competition Season Count
10
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
8
0.63
Portability PPG Std
0.51
1.94
Portability PPG Range
1.60
44.05
Portability Score
49.37
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
76
Clean History Matches
86
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-29.25
PPG-0.29
GF-0.55
GA-0.11
PPG-0.12
PPG0.02
PPG0.00
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate5.1%
Failed-to-score rate14.1%
History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate6.1%
History Matches-10
Goals Mean-0.55
Goals Std-0.06
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.21
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean-0.52
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.95
History Matches-10
Conceded Mean-0.11
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate5.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.40
History Matches-10
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.11
Stability score-3.72
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.03
Eligible Matches-10
Lead Matches-15
Lead Win Rate4.4%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches-10
First Half Goals For Mean-0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.12
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.06
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.12
Portability PPG Range0.34
Portability Score-5.32
Rest days1.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-11
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.11
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.26
Current Team ELO-29.25
Current Opponent ELO29.25
Current ELO Difference-58.50
Expected score-0.08
History Matches-10
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.68
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Fredrikstad

L
Fredrikstad0–3Rosenborg31 Oct · home
Pick: Rosenborg 37% · hit
W
Ranheim2–5Fredrikstad28 Oct · away
Pick: Fredrikstad 43% · hit
L
Molde5–1Fredrikstad25 Oct · away
Pick: Molde 53% · hit
L
Viking3–2Fredrikstad17 Oct · away
Pick: Viking 65% · hit
W
Lillestrom1–4Fredrikstad30 Aug · away
Pick: Lillestrom 54% · missed

Brann

W
Brann3–2Molde1 Nov · home
Pick: Brann 52% · hit
W
Grorud0–2Brann28 Oct · away
Pick: Brann 44% · hit
L
Lillestrom3–2Brann25 Oct · away
Pick: Brann 47% · missed
W
Kauno Žalgiris1–4Brann22 Oct · away
Pick: Kauno Žalgiris 45% · missed
L
Valerenga3–1Brann18 Oct · away
Pick: Brann 50% · missed

About this match

Fredrikstad and Brann meet in Eliteserien on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 18:15 UTC. The match is played at Fredrikstad Stadion. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Fredrikstad win 27.0%, draw 26.6%, Brann win 46.4%. The pick is Brann win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.2%. Both teams to score: 58.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.