ScoreProb
Eliteserien Norway Round 26 2026

Viking vs KFUM Oslo

Viking Home · Elo 1,738
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
KFUM Oslo Away · Elo 1,534
Lyse Arena, Stavanger Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Viking win
Viking winPick
67.9%
Draw
18.4%
KFUM Oslo win
13.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.2%
No43.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.8%
Under 2.531.2%

How much we know

Viking history77 matches
KFUM Oslo history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (67.9%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Viking are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Viking are rated 204 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,738 against 1,534. On rating alone Viking would be expected to take 76% of the points on offer.

  • Viking score far more

    2.58 goals a game over 77 matches for Viking, against 1.51 over 70 for KFUM Oslo.

  • Viking concede fewer

    Viking concede 1.14 a game, KFUM Oslo 1.34.

  • Viking games more often go over 2.5 goals

    74% of Viking matches, against 49% for KFUM Oslo. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Viking
KFUM Oslo
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1738.5
ELO
1534.3
77
ELO · Matches
70
1738.5
Current Team ELO
1534.3
1534.3
Current Opponent ELO
1738.5
204.2
Current ELO Difference
-204.2
0.76
Expected score
0.24
77
History Matches
70
0.14
Residual Mean
0.02
60.87
Overperformance
51.48
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.00
1.80
Goals for per game
2.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.10
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.69
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.17
Overall performance9 signals
90
77
Matches
70
2.23
PPG
1.37
68.8%
Win rate
35.7%
16.9%
Draw rate
30.0%
14.3%
Loss rate
34.3%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
81.4%
74.0%
Over 2.5 rate
48.6%
49.4%
Over 3.5 rate
34.3%
1.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.15
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
37
2.59
PPG
1.24
84.4%
Win rate
32.4%
6.3%
Draw rate
27.0%
9.4%
Loss rate
40.5%
90.6%
Over 1.5 rate
78.4%
87.5%
Over 2.5 rate
48.6%
59.4%
Over 3.5 rate
35.1%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.32
32
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.58
Goals for per game
1.51
96.1%
Scoring rate
77.1%
63.6%
BTTS rate
54.3%
3.19
Goals for per game
1.43
96.9%
Scoring rate
73.0%
62.5%
BTTS rate
48.6%
2.35
Goals for per game
1.12
94.1%
Scoring rate
76.5%
64.7%
BTTS rate
52.9%
77
History Matches
70
2.58
Goals Mean
1.51
1.60
Goals Std
1.41
96.1%
Scored 1+ rate
77.1%
70.1%
Scored 2+ rate
38.6%
46.8%
Scored 3+ rate
17.1%
3.19
Venue Goals Mean
1.43
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.14
Goals against per game
1.34
66.2%
Conceding rate
70.0%
1.06
Goals against per game
1.46
62.5%
Conceding rate
70.3%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.59
70.6%
Conceding rate
70.6%
77
History Matches
70
1.14
Conceded Mean
1.34
1.10
Conceded Std
1.35
31.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.1%
13.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.3%
1.06
Venue Conceded Mean
1.46
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.8%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
3.9%
Failed-to-score rate
22.9%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
3.1%
Failed-to-score rate
27.0%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
5.9%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
33.8%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
3.9%
Failed-to-score rate
22.9%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
3.1%
Failed-to-score rate
27.0%
33.8%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
77
History Matches
70
0.76
Result entropy
1.00
1.93
Goal Difference Std
2.15
23.96
Stability score
0.24
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
77
Eligible Matches
70
42
Lead Matches
27
81.0%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.85
16
Trailing Matches
18
50.0%
Non-loss rate
11.1%
37.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
77
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
1.16
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
1.43
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
81.88
Rest days
78.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
10
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.20
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.25
45
Normal Rest History Matches
37
2.18
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.43
21
Long Rest History Matches
28
2.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.39
Competition & season17 signals
170
17
Matches
17
2.35
PPG
1.12
76.5%
Win rate
29.4%
5.9%
Draw rate
23.5%
17.6%
Loss rate
47.1%
88.2%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
76.5%
Over 2.5 rate
52.9%
23.5%
Over 3.5 rate
29.4%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
17
Current Competition Matches
17
2.35
Current Competition PPG
1.12
1.35
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.47
8
Competition Season Count
7
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.28
Portability PPG Std
0.73
0.75
Portability PPG Range
2.00
63.82
Portability Score
40.49
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
77
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO204.2
PPG0.86
GF1.07
GA-0.20
PPG1.24
PPG1.35
PPG-0.40
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate3.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate7.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches7
Goals Mean1.07
Goals Std0.19
Scored 1+ rate19.0%
Scored 2+ rate31.6%
Scored 3+ rate29.6%
Venue Goals Mean1.76
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.31
History Matches7
Conceded Mean-0.20
Conceded Std-0.25
Clean-sheet rate3.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.15
History Matches7
Result entropy-0.24
Goal Difference Std-0.22
Stability score23.71
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.05
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches15
Lead Win Rate3.2%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate38.9%
Trailing Win Rate37.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.24
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.82
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.45
Portability PPG Range-1.25
Portability Score23.33
Rest days3.79
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Short Rest Points Per Match1.95
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.75
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match1.04
Current Team ELO204.2
Current Opponent ELO-204.2
Current ELO Difference408.4
Expected score0.53
History Matches7
Residual Mean0.12
Overperformance9.39
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Viking

L
Bodo/Glimt3–2Viking30 Oct · away
Pick: Bodo/Glimt 55% · hit
W
Viking3–1Tromso25 Oct · home
Pick: Viking 57% · hit
L
Aston Villa3–1Viking21 Oct · away
Pick: Viking 37% · missed
W
Viking3–2Fredrikstad17 Oct · home
Pick: Viking 65% · hit
D
Viking3–3Bayern München13 Oct · home
Pick: Bayern München 41% · missed

KFUM Oslo

D
KFUM Oslo2–2Ham-Kam1 Nov · home
Pick: KFUM Oslo 46% · missed
D
Kristiansund BK2–2KFUM Oslo25 Oct · away
Pick: Kristiansund BK 38% · missed
D
Tromso1–1KFUM Oslo18 Oct · away
Pick: Tromso 62% · missed
W
KFUM Oslo2–1Valerenga12 Oct · home
Pick: KFUM Oslo 49% · hit
L
Start4–1KFUM Oslo30 Aug · away
Pick: KFUM Oslo 43% · missed

About this match

Viking and KFUM Oslo meet in Eliteserien on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. The match is played at Lyse Arena, Stavanger. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Viking win 67.9%, draw 18.4%, KFUM Oslo win 13.7%. The pick is Viking win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.8%. Both teams to score: 56.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.