ScoreProb
1. Liga Classic - Group 3 Switzerland Group 3 - 13 2026

Freienbach vs Dietikon

Freienbach Home · Elo 1,467
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dietikon Away · Elo 1,526
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Dietikon win
Freienbach win
34.4%
Draw
23.1%
Dietikon winPick
42.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.2%
No39.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.5%
Under 2.539.5%

How much we know

Freienbach history49 matches
Dietikon history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Dietikon are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Dietikon are rated 59 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,526 against 1,467. On rating alone Dietikon would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.57 goals a game over 49 matches for Freienbach, against 1.63 over 51 for Dietikon.

  • Dietikon concede fewer

    Freienbach concede 1.80 a game, Dietikon 1.55.

  • Freienbach games more often go over 2.5 goals

    69% of Freienbach matches, against 59% for Dietikon. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Freienbach
Dietikon
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1467.2
ELO
1526.4
49
ELO · Matches
51
1467.2
Current Team ELO
1526.4
1526.4
Current Opponent ELO
1467.2
-59.25
Current ELO Difference
59.25
0.42
Expected score
0.58
49
History Matches
51
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.02
47.52
Overperformance
51.71
-0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.40
1.20
Goals for per game
2.20
1.80
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.50
1.30
Goals for per game
1.70
1.90
Goals against per game
1.90
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.27
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.19
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.91
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.25
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
51
1.24
PPG
1.45
34.7%
Win rate
39.2%
20.4%
Draw rate
27.5%
44.9%
Loss rate
33.3%
91.8%
Over 1.5 rate
78.4%
69.4%
Over 2.5 rate
58.8%
40.8%
Over 3.5 rate
39.2%
2.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
26
1.58
PPG
1.19
45.8%
Win rate
30.8%
20.8%
Draw rate
26.9%
33.3%
Loss rate
42.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.8%
70.8%
Over 2.5 rate
57.7%
41.7%
Over 3.5 rate
38.5%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
24
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.57
Goals for per game
1.63
75.5%
Scoring rate
82.4%
59.2%
BTTS rate
60.8%
1.88
Goals for per game
1.46
87.5%
Scoring rate
84.6%
75.0%
BTTS rate
69.2%
0.67
Goals for per game
1.33
33.3%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
49
History Matches
51
1.57
Goals Mean
1.63
1.25
Goals Std
1.28
75.5%
Scored 1+ rate
82.4%
49.0%
Scored 2+ rate
45.1%
26.5%
Scored 3+ rate
23.5%
1.88
Venue Goals Mean
1.46
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.80
Goals against per game
1.55
81.6%
Conceding rate
72.5%
1.54
Goals against per game
1.69
87.5%
Conceding rate
80.8%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
49
History Matches
51
1.80
Conceded Mean
1.55
1.32
Conceded Std
1.21
53.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.9%
32.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.5%
1.54
Venue Conceded Mean
1.69
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
24.5%
Failed-to-score rate
17.6%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
18.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
24.5%
Failed-to-score rate
17.6%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
18.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
51
0.96
Result entropy
0.99
2.07
Goal Difference Std
1.57
4.32
Stability score
0.95
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
39
Eligible Matches
44
11
Lead Matches
9
54.5%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.64
Lead Points Retention
0.74
17
Trailing Matches
17
23.5%
Non-loss rate
35.3%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
11.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
39
Halftime Coverage Matches
44
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.85
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.89
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.98
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.13
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.50
27
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.07
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.32
19
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.37
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.67
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
66.7%
66.7%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.67
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
5
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.32
Portability PPG Std
0.29
0.77
Portability PPG Range
0.67
61.27
Portability Score
63.45
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-59.25
PPG-0.21
GF-0.06
GA0.25
PPG-1.33
PPG0.39
PPG-1.40
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate6.8%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.06
Goals Std-0.04
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate3.9%
Scored 3+ rate3.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.41
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.08
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.25
Conceded Std0.11
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate0.1%
Conceded 3+ rate7.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.15
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.08
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.50
Stability score3.37
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.31
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.66
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.12
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.41
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.03
Portability PPG Range0.10
Portability Score-2.18
Rest days-0.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.04
Current Team ELO-59.25
Current Opponent ELO59.25
Current ELO Difference-118.5
Expected score-0.17
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Freienbach

W
Tuggen1–2Freienbach31 Oct · away
Pick: Tuggen 64% · missed
L
Freienbach1–2Wettswil-Bonstetten24 Oct · home
Pick: Wettswil-Bonstetten 41% · hit
W
Freienbach3–1Wettswil-Bonstetten17 Oct · home
Pick: Wettswil-Bonstetten 45% · missed
D
Freienbach0–0Eschen / Mauren7 Oct · home
Pick: Freienbach 40% · missed
D
Freienbach3–3Kosova29 Aug · home
Pick: Freienbach 42% · missed

Dietikon

D
Dietikon2–2Winterthur II31 Oct · home
Pick: Dietikon 47% · missed
L
Collina d'Oro2–0Dietikon24 Oct · away
Pick: Collina d'Oro 43% · hit
W
Dietikon2–0Black Stars17 Oct · home
Pick: Dietikon 48% · hit
L
Kosova1–0Dietikon7 Oct · away
Pick: Kosova 42% · hit
D
Dietikon2–2Locarno29 Aug · home
Pick: Dietikon 62% · missed

About this match

Freienbach and Dietikon meet in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Freienbach win 34.4%, draw 23.1%, Dietikon win 42.5%. The pick is Dietikon win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.5%. Both teams to score: 60.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.