ScoreProb
Bundesliga Germany Round 9 2026

FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München

FSV Mainz 05 Home · Elo 1,617
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bayern München Away · Elo 1,822
Mewa Arena, Mainz Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bayern München win
FSV Mainz 05 win
31.0%
Draw
19.9%
Bayern München winPick
49.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.8%
No43.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.4%
Under 2.533.6%

How much we know

FSV Mainz 05 history74 matches
Bayern München history91 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Bayern München are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bayern München are rated 205 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,822 against 1,617. On rating alone Bayern München would be expected to take 76% of the points on offer.

  • Bayern München score far more

    1.72 goals a game over 74 matches for FSV Mainz 05, against 3.07 over 91 for Bayern München.

  • Bayern München concede fewer

    FSV Mainz 05 concede 1.23 a game, Bayern München 1.10.

  • Bayern München games more often go over 2.5 goals

    53% of FSV Mainz 05 matches, against 86% for Bayern München. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FSV Mainz 05
Bayern München
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1617.3
ELO
1821.8
74
ELO · Matches
91
1617.3
Current Team ELO
1821.8
1821.8
Current Opponent ELO
1617.3
-204.5
Current ELO Difference
204.5
0.24
Expected score
0.76
74
History Matches
91
0.08
Residual Mean
0.17
56.30
Overperformance
64.04
0.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
3.00
3.80
Goals for per game
2.60
0.80
Goals against per game
1.20
80.0%
Win rate
100.0%
10
Matches
10
2.50
PPG
2.50
3.90
Goals for per game
2.40
0.80
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Win rate
80.0%
3.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
2.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.63
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
3.59
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.36
Overall performance9 signals
90
74
Matches
91
1.57
PPG
2.47
43.2%
Win rate
78.0%
27.0%
Draw rate
13.2%
29.7%
Loss rate
8.8%
79.7%
Over 1.5 rate
96.7%
52.7%
Over 2.5 rate
85.7%
35.1%
Over 3.5 rate
60.4%
2.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.02
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
47
1.62
PPG
2.38
43.2%
Win rate
74.5%
32.4%
Draw rate
14.9%
24.3%
Loss rate
10.6%
75.7%
Over 1.5 rate
93.6%
43.2%
Over 2.5 rate
83.0%
29.7%
Over 3.5 rate
57.4%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
37
History Matches
47
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.72
Goals for per game
3.07
74.3%
Scoring rate
96.7%
51.4%
BTTS rate
65.9%
1.57
Goals for per game
2.79
75.7%
Scoring rate
93.6%
51.4%
BTTS rate
68.1%
74
History Matches
91
1.72
Goals Mean
3.07
1.78
Goals Std
1.62
74.3%
Scored 1+ rate
96.7%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
86.8%
20.3%
Scored 3+ rate
61.5%
1.57
Venue Goals Mean
2.79
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.23
Goals against per game
1.10
71.6%
Conceding rate
68.1%
1.05
Goals against per game
1.19
67.6%
Conceding rate
72.3%
74
History Matches
91
1.23
Conceded Mean
1.10
1.16
Conceded Std
1.01
29.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.8%
13.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.8%
1.05
Venue Conceded Mean
1.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
28.4%
Clean-sheet rate
31.9%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
3.3%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.7%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
6.4%
28.4%
Clean-sheet rate
31.9%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
3.3%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.7%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
6.4%
28.4%
Clean-sheet rate
31.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
74
History Matches
91
0.98
Result entropy
0.61
2.34
Goal Difference Std
2.02
1.99
Stability score
38.60
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
73
Eligible Matches
91
29
Lead Matches
52
69.0%
Lead Win Rate
96.2%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.96
22
Trailing Matches
13
40.9%
Non-loss rate
69.2%
13.6%
Trailing Win Rate
38.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
73
Halftime Coverage Matches
91
0.85
First Half Goals For Mean
1.29
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.78
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.04
Rest days
76.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
13
Short Rest History Matches
17
0.92
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.41
40
Normal Rest History Matches
57
1.75
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.44
20
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.70
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.63
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
10
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
8
0.57
Portability PPG Std
0.41
1.54
Portability PPG Range
1.20
46.73
Portability Score
55.21
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
74
Clean History Matches
91
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-204.5
PPG-0.90
GF-1.35
GA0.13
PPG-0.76
PPG-0.40
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-17
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate22.4%
History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate4.8%
Failed-to-score rate17.9%
History Matches-17
Goals Mean-1.35
Goals Std0.17
Scored 1+ rate-0.22
Scored 2+ rate-0.37
Scored 3+ rate-0.41
Venue Goals Mean-1.22
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std1.70
History Matches-17
Conceded Mean0.13
Conceded Std0.15
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate4.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.53
History Matches-17
Result entropy0.37
Goal Difference Std0.32
Stability score-36.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std2.23
Eligible Matches-18
Lead Matches-23
Lead Win Rate-0.27
Lead Points Retention-0.19
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate-0.28
Trailing Win Rate-0.25
Halftime Coverage Matches-18
First Half Goals For Mean-0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.94
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std0.16
Portability PPG Range0.34
Portability Score-8.48
Rest days-0.79
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.49
Normal Rest History Matches-17
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.69
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.93
Current Team ELO-204.5
Current Opponent ELO204.5
Current ELO Difference-409.0
Expected score-0.53
History Matches-17
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-7.74
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FSV Mainz 05

L
SV Elversberg4–1FSV Mainz 0530 Oct · away
Pick: FSV Mainz 05 43% · missed
L
VfL Bochum2–0FSV Mainz 0527 Oct · away
Pick: FSV Mainz 05 49% · missed
L
FSV Mainz 052–3Werder Bremen24 Oct · home
Pick: FSV Mainz 05 55% · missed
W
FC Schalke 040–1FSV Mainz 0517 Oct · away
Pick: FSV Mainz 05 50% · hit
D
FSV Mainz 050–0SC Paderborn 0729 Aug · home
Pick: FSV Mainz 05 54% · missed

Bayern München

W
Atletico Madrid0–2Bayern München3 Nov · away
Pick: Bayern München 41% · hit
D
Bayern München2–2Borussia Dortmund31 Oct · home
Pick: Bayern München 53% · missed
W
Bayern München6–11. FC Magdeburg28 Oct · home
Pick: Bayern München 63% · hit
W
SC Freiburg1–3Bayern München25 Oct · away
Pick: Bayern München 53% · hit
D
Bayern München2–2Arsenal21 Oct · home
Pick: Arsenal 38% · missed

About this match

FSV Mainz 05 and Bayern München meet in Bundesliga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:30 UTC. The match is played at Mewa Arena, Mainz. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: FSV Mainz 05 win 31.0%, draw 19.9%, Bayern München win 49.2%. The pick is Bayern München win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.4%. Both teams to score: 56.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.