ScoreProb
Bundesliga Germany Round 9 2026

VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen

VfB Stuttgart Home · Elo 1,636
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Werder Bremen Away · Elo 1,508
MHPArena, Stuttgart Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: VfB Stuttgart win
VfB Stuttgart winPick
56.1%
Draw
18.1%
Werder Bremen win
25.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.2%
No38.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.571.3%
Under 2.528.7%

How much we know

VfB Stuttgart history83 matches
Werder Bremen history66 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why VfB Stuttgart are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • VfB Stuttgart are rated 128 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,636 against 1,508. On rating alone VfB Stuttgart would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • VfB Stuttgart score more

    2.17 goals a game over 83 matches for VfB Stuttgart, against 1.48 over 66 for Werder Bremen.

  • VfB Stuttgart concede fewer

    VfB Stuttgart concede 1.37 a game, Werder Bremen 1.55.

  • VfB Stuttgart games more often go over 2.5 goals

    70% of VfB Stuttgart matches, against 56% for Werder Bremen. The model puts this match at 71% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
VfB Stuttgart
Werder Bremen
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1636.0
ELO
1508.2
83
ELO · Matches
66
1636.0
Current Team ELO
1508.2
1508.2
Current Opponent ELO
1636.0
127.8
Current ELO Difference
-127.8
0.68
Expected score
0.32
83
History Matches
66
0.08
Residual Mean
0.00
56.56
Overperformance
50.09
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.00
3.40
Goals for per game
2.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.60
3.40
Goals for per game
2.00
1.10
Goals against per game
1.30
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
3.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
2.54
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.84
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
3.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.05
Overall performance9 signals
90
83
Matches
66
1.72
PPG
1.30
51.8%
Win rate
36.4%
16.9%
Draw rate
21.2%
31.3%
Loss rate
42.4%
84.3%
Over 1.5 rate
75.8%
69.9%
Over 2.5 rate
56.1%
49.4%
Over 3.5 rate
37.9%
2.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.17
Venue performance10 signals
100
41
Matches
35
1.80
PPG
1.37
56.1%
Win rate
40.0%
12.2%
Draw rate
17.1%
31.7%
Loss rate
42.9%
78.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
63.4%
Over 2.5 rate
68.6%
43.9%
Over 3.5 rate
48.6%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.52
41
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.17
Goals for per game
1.48
84.3%
Scoring rate
66.7%
56.6%
BTTS rate
45.5%
1.85
Goals for per game
1.86
85.4%
Scoring rate
68.6%
58.5%
BTTS rate
51.4%
83
History Matches
66
2.17
Goals Mean
1.48
1.67
Goals Std
1.57
84.3%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
57.8%
Scored 2+ rate
39.4%
41.0%
Scored 3+ rate
21.2%
1.85
Venue Goals Mean
1.86
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.37
Goals against per game
1.55
71.1%
Conceding rate
71.2%
1.27
Goals against per game
1.66
70.7%
Conceding rate
77.1%
83
History Matches
66
1.37
Conceded Mean
1.55
1.20
Conceded Std
1.36
43.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.5%
15.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.8%
1.27
Venue Conceded Mean
1.66
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
28.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
15.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
29.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
14.6%
Failed-to-score rate
31.4%
28.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
15.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
29.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
14.6%
Failed-to-score rate
31.4%
28.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
83
History Matches
66
0.91
Result entropy
0.97
2.26
Goal Difference Std
2.17
8.56
Stability score
3.47
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
83
Eligible Matches
64
35
Lead Matches
20
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.85
22
Trailing Matches
22
27.3%
Non-loss rate
13.6%
4.5%
Trailing Win Rate
4.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
83
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.99
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
1.18
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.95
Rest days
77.17
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
18
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.83
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.50
43
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.79
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.12
21
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.57
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.30
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
10
Competition Season Count
7
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.54
Portability PPG Std
0.41
1.80
Portability PPG Range
1.06
48.25
Portability Score
55.17
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
83
Clean History Matches
66
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO127.8
PPG0.42
GF0.68
GA-0.17
PPG0.43
PPG0.00
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches17
Clean-sheet rate0.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate6.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches17
Goals Mean0.68
Goals Std0.10
Scored 1+ rate17.7%
Scored 2+ rate18.4%
Scored 3+ rate19.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.69
History Matches17
Conceded Mean-0.17
Conceded Std-0.16
Clean-sheet rate0.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.39
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.06
History Matches17
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.09
Stability score5.10
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.17
Eligible Matches19
Lead Matches15
Lead Win Rate5.7%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate13.6%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches19
First Half Goals For Mean0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.13
Portability PPG Range0.74
Portability Score-6.92
Rest days0.78
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches14
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.67
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.67
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.28
Current Team ELO127.8
Current Opponent ELO-127.8
Current ELO Difference255.6
Expected score0.35
History Matches17
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance6.47
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

VfB Stuttgart

L
Galatasaray2–0VfB Stuttgart3 Nov · away
Pick: Galatasaray 46% · hit
W
Bayer Leverkusen2–4VfB Stuttgart31 Oct · away
Pick: VfB Stuttgart 43% · hit
W
SC Paderborn 070–1VfB Stuttgart28 Oct · away
Pick: VfB Stuttgart 57% · hit
L
VfB Stuttgart2–3Borussia Mönchengladbach23 Oct · home
Pick: VfB Stuttgart 60% · missed
D
VfB Stuttgart1–1Atletico Madrid20 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico Madrid 41% · missed

Werder Bremen

W
Werder Bremen2–01899 Hoffenheim31 Oct · home
Pick: Werder Bremen 44% · hit
L
Borussia Dortmund3–2Werder Bremen27 Oct · away
Pick: Borussia Dortmund 57% · hit
W
FSV Mainz 052–3Werder Bremen24 Oct · away
Pick: FSV Mainz 05 55% · missed
D
Werder Bremen2–2SC Paderborn 0717 Oct · home
Pick: Werder Bremen 46% · missed
L
SC Freiburg4–1Werder Bremen30 Aug · away
Pick: SC Freiburg 55% · hit

About this match

VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen meet in Bundesliga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:30 UTC. The match is played at MHPArena, Stuttgart. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: VfB Stuttgart win 56.1%, draw 18.1%, Werder Bremen win 25.9%. The pick is VfB Stuttgart win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.3%. Both teams to score: 61.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.