ScoreProb
Serie A Italy Round 11 2026

Genoa vs AC Milan

Genoa Home · Elo 1,500
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
AC Milan Away · Elo 1,604
Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: AC Milan win
Genoa win
23.3%
Draw
24.1%
AC Milan winPick
52.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.9%
No49.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.0%
Under 2.547.0%

How much we know

Genoa history66 matches
AC Milan history76 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why AC Milan are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • AC Milan are rated 105 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,604 against 1,500. On rating alone AC Milan would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • AC Milan score more

    1.21 goals a game over 66 matches for Genoa, against 1.50 over 76 for AC Milan.

  • AC Milan concede fewer

    Genoa concede 1.45 a game, AC Milan 1.11.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    53% of Genoa matches, against 51% for AC Milan. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Genoa
AC Milan
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1499.5
ELO
1604.4
66
ELO · Matches
76
1499.5
Current Team ELO
1604.4
1604.4
Current Opponent ELO
1499.5
-104.9
Current ELO Difference
104.9
0.35
Expected score
0.65
66
History Matches
76
0.00
Residual Mean
0.06
50.33
Overperformance
54.78
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.60
1.20
Goals for per game
1.80
2.80
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.20
1.10
Goals for per game
1.40
2.00
Goals against per game
1.70
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.22
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
2.76
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
3.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.42
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
76
1.18
PPG
1.68
30.3%
Win rate
48.7%
27.3%
Draw rate
22.4%
42.4%
Loss rate
28.9%
77.3%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
53.0%
Over 2.5 rate
51.3%
24.2%
Over 3.5 rate
23.7%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
41
1.41
PPG
1.63
41.2%
Win rate
48.8%
17.6%
Draw rate
17.1%
41.2%
Loss rate
34.1%
85.3%
Over 1.5 rate
78.0%
58.8%
Over 2.5 rate
53.7%
23.5%
Over 3.5 rate
24.4%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
34
History Matches
41
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.21
Goals for per game
1.50
65.2%
Scoring rate
81.6%
54.5%
BTTS rate
53.9%
1.44
Goals for per game
1.54
67.6%
Scoring rate
78.0%
52.9%
BTTS rate
51.2%
0.00
Goals for per game
2.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
66
History Matches
76
1.21
Goals Mean
1.50
1.09
Goals Std
1.08
65.2%
Scored 1+ rate
81.6%
40.9%
Scored 2+ rate
44.7%
13.6%
Scored 3+ rate
19.7%
1.44
Venue Goals Mean
1.54
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.45
Goals against per game
1.11
78.8%
Conceding rate
69.7%
1.32
Goals against per game
1.17
79.4%
Conceding rate
70.7%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
66
History Matches
76
1.45
Conceded Mean
1.11
1.43
Conceded Std
0.94
42.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.9%
12.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.6%
1.32
Venue Conceded Mean
1.17
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.3%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
18.4%
20.6%
Clean-sheet rate
29.3%
32.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.3%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
18.4%
20.6%
Clean-sheet rate
29.3%
32.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.0%
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
76
0.98
Result entropy
0.95
1.82
Goal Difference Std
1.49
1.70
Stability score
4.95
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
76
14
Lead Matches
20
64.3%
Lead Win Rate
70.0%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.78
21
Trailing Matches
19
38.1%
Non-loss rate
36.8%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
15.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
76
0.45
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.01
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.80
Rest days
76.80
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
9
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
38
Normal Rest History Matches
44
1.11
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.59
26
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.27
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.82
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
7
Competition Season Count
9
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.38
Portability PPG Std
0.55
0.94
Portability PPG Range
1.67
56.85
Portability Score
47.50
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
76
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-104.9
PPG-0.50
GF-0.29
GA0.35
PPG-3.00
PPG-0.22
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate16.4%
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate10.4%
History Matches-10
Goals Mean-0.29
Goals Std0.01
Scored 1+ rate-0.16
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.02
History Matches-10
Conceded Mean0.35
Conceded Std0.49
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate9.5%
Conceded 3+ rate5.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.15
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.86
History Matches-10
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.33
Stability score-3.24
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.60
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate1.3%
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std-0.17
Portability PPG Range-0.73
Portability Score9.35
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-8
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.67
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.49
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.55
Current Team ELO-104.9
Current Opponent ELO104.9
Current ELO Difference-209.7
Expected score-0.29
History Matches-10
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.45
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Genoa

W
Lecce1–2Genoa1 Nov · away
Pick: Lecce 56% · missed
W
Genoa2–0Juventus28 Oct · home
Pick: Juventus 54% · missed
W
Genoa1–0Venezia25 Oct · home
Pick: Venezia 37% · missed
L
AS Roma2–0Genoa17 Oct · away
Pick: AS Roma 67% · hit
L
Lazio1–0Genoa30 Aug · away
Pick: Lazio 65% · hit

AC Milan

W
AC Milan3–1Inter31 Oct · home
Pick: Inter 59% · missed
L
AC Milan2–4Bologna28 Oct · home
Pick: AC Milan 50% · missed
W
Udinese0–2AC Milan25 Oct · away
Pick: AC Milan 38% · hit
L
Bournemouth3–0AC Milan22 Oct · away
Pick: AC Milan 41% · missed
W
AC Milan3–2Atalanta18 Oct · home
Pick: AC Milan 37% · hit

About this match

Genoa and AC Milan meet in Serie A on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Genoa win 23.3%, draw 24.1%, AC Milan win 52.6%. The pick is AC Milan win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.0%. Both teams to score: 50.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.