ScoreProb
UEFA Europa Conference League World Round 3 2026

Getafe vs Brighton

Getafe Home · Elo 1,529
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Brighton Away · Elo 1,603
Coliseum, Getafe Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Getafe win
Getafe winPick
39.9%
Draw
24.1%
Brighton win
36.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.3%
No48.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.3%
Under 2.548.7%

How much we know

Getafe history72 matches
Brighton history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.9%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Getafe are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Brighton are rated 74 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,603 against 1,529. On rating alone Brighton would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Brighton score far more

    1.03 goals a game over 72 matches for Getafe, against 1.74 over 68 for Brighton.

  • Defences are close

    Getafe concede 1.15 a game, Brighton 1.28.

  • Brighton games more often go over 2.5 goals

    40% of Getafe matches, against 60% for Brighton. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Getafe
Brighton
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1529.0
ELO
1602.7
72
ELO · Matches
68
1529.0
Current Team ELO
1602.7
1602.7
Current Opponent ELO
1529.0
-73.66
Current ELO Difference
73.66
0.40
Expected score
0.60
72
History Matches
68
0.01
Residual Mean
0.08
50.72
Overperformance
55.83
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.40
0.60
Goals for per game
2.40
1.80
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.90
0.70
Goals for per game
2.10
1.10
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
0.64
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.45
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.33
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.26
Overall performance9 signals
90
72
Matches
68
1.26
PPG
1.66
36.1%
Win rate
47.1%
18.1%
Draw rate
25.0%
45.8%
Loss rate
27.9%
61.1%
Over 1.5 rate
86.8%
40.3%
Over 2.5 rate
60.3%
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
29.4%
2.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.10
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
34
1.26
PPG
1.29
35.5%
Win rate
35.3%
19.4%
Draw rate
23.5%
45.2%
Loss rate
41.2%
58.1%
Over 1.5 rate
88.2%
29.0%
Over 2.5 rate
55.9%
6.5%
Over 3.5 rate
38.2%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.49
31
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.03
Goals for per game
1.74
58.3%
Scoring rate
79.4%
36.1%
BTTS rate
52.9%
0.87
Goals for per game
1.65
61.3%
Scoring rate
76.5%
38.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
72
History Matches
68
1.03
Goals Mean
1.74
1.50
Goals Std
1.35
58.3%
Scored 1+ rate
79.4%
26.4%
Scored 2+ rate
57.4%
5.6%
Scored 3+ rate
22.1%
0.87
Venue Goals Mean
1.65
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.15
Goals against per game
1.28
69.4%
Conceding rate
69.1%
0.97
Goals against per game
1.50
67.7%
Conceding rate
70.6%
72
History Matches
68
1.15
Conceded Mean
1.28
1.11
Conceded Std
1.29
27.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.3%
12.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.2%
0.97
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.9%
41.7%
Failed-to-score rate
20.6%
32.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
38.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.9%
41.7%
Failed-to-score rate
20.6%
32.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
38.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
72
History Matches
68
0.94
Result entropy
0.96
2.09
Goal Difference Std
2.10
5.84
Stability score
3.74
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
72
Eligible Matches
66
13
Lead Matches
24
92.3%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.88
24
Trailing Matches
20
25.0%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
25.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
72
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.40
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.10
Rest days
74.29
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.17
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
34
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.35
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.70
31
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.13
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.68
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
8
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.23
Portability PPG Std
0.52
0.59
Portability PPG Range
1.61
68.73
Portability Score
49.02
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
72
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-73.66
PPG-0.40
GF-0.71
GA-0.13
PPG-0.04
PPG-1.60
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate21.1%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate2.8%
Failed-to-score rate15.2%
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.71
Goals Std0.15
Scored 1+ rate-0.21
Scored 2+ rate-0.31
Scored 3+ rate-0.17
Venue Goals Mean-0.78
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.81
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.13
Conceded Std-0.18
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.53
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.03
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.00
Stability score2.10
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.76
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches-11
Lead Win Rate9.0%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.25
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.31
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.29
Portability PPG Range-1.01
Portability Score19.71
Rest days-0.19
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.35
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.55
Current Team ELO-73.66
Current Opponent ELO73.66
Current ELO Difference-147.3
Expected score-0.21
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Getafe

W
Getafe3–1Sevilla1 Nov · home
Pick: Sevilla 44% · missed
W
Lebrijana2–3Getafe29 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 35% · missed
L
Athletic Club4–0Getafe25 Oct · away
Pick: Athletic Club 48% · hit
L
Getafe2–5FC Lugano22 Oct · home
Pick: FC Lugano 47% · hit
D
Getafe1–1Rayo Vallecano19 Oct · home
Pick: Rayo Vallecano 37% · missed

Brighton

W
Manchester City0–1Brighton31 Oct · away
Pick: Manchester City 40% · missed
L
Liverpool2–0Brighton25 Oct · away
Pick: Liverpool 44% · hit
D
FK Jablonec0–0Brighton22 Oct · away
Pick: FK Jablonec 51% · missed
W
Brighton5–0Crystal Palace18 Oct · home
Pick: Brighton 49% · hit
W
Brighton4–0Kauno Žalgiris15 Oct · home
Pick: Kauno Žalgiris 49% · missed

About this match

Getafe and Brighton meet in UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at Coliseum, Getafe. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Getafe win 39.9%, draw 24.1%, Brighton win 36.0%. The pick is Getafe win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.3%. Both teams to score: 51.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.