ScoreProb
UEFA Europa Conference League World Round 3 2026

Lincoln Red Imps FC vs HNK Hajduk Split

Lincoln Red Imps FC Home · Elo 1,670
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
HNK Hajduk Split Away · Elo 1,653
Europa Point Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: HNK Hajduk Split win
Lincoln Red Imps FC win
34.5%
Draw
20.8%
HNK Hajduk Split winPick
44.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.9%
No44.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.6%
Under 2.540.4%

How much we know

Lincoln Red Imps FC history62 matches
HNK Hajduk Split history79 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 17:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why HNK Hajduk Split are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,670 against 1,653. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Lincoln Red Imps FC score more

    2.26 goals a game over 62 matches for Lincoln Red Imps FC, against 1.66 over 79 for HNK Hajduk Split.

  • Defences are close

    Lincoln Red Imps FC concede 1.05 a game, HNK Hajduk Split 1.05.

  • Lincoln Red Imps FC games more often go over 2.5 goals

    66% of Lincoln Red Imps FC matches, against 49% for HNK Hajduk Split. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lincoln Red Imps FC
HNK Hajduk Split
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1670.4
ELO
1652.8
62
ELO · Matches
79
1670.4
Current Team ELO
1652.8
1652.8
Current Opponent ELO
1670.4
17.53
Current ELO Difference
-17.53
0.53
Expected score
0.47
62
History Matches
79
0.14
Residual Mean
0.09
60.69
Overperformance
57.15
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.60
0.80
Goals for per game
3.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.90
1.50
Goals for per game
2.30
1.00
Goals against per game
1.30
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.49
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.27
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.69
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.41
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
79
2.05
PPG
1.78
62.9%
Win rate
51.9%
16.1%
Draw rate
22.8%
21.0%
Loss rate
25.3%
82.3%
Over 1.5 rate
78.5%
66.1%
Over 2.5 rate
49.4%
40.3%
Over 3.5 rate
30.4%
2.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
42
2.39
PPG
1.50
75.8%
Win rate
40.5%
12.1%
Draw rate
28.6%
12.1%
Loss rate
31.0%
84.8%
Over 1.5 rate
76.2%
72.7%
Over 2.5 rate
47.6%
42.4%
Over 3.5 rate
31.0%
2.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.02
33
History Matches
42
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.26
Goals for per game
1.66
85.5%
Scoring rate
81.0%
45.2%
BTTS rate
48.1%
2.58
Goals for per game
1.48
90.9%
Scoring rate
73.8%
48.5%
BTTS rate
50.0%
—
Goals for per game
4.50
—
Scoring rate
100.0%
—
BTTS rate
50.0%
62
History Matches
79
2.26
Goals Mean
1.66
1.95
Goals Std
1.37
85.5%
Scored 1+ rate
81.0%
54.8%
Scored 2+ rate
48.1%
40.3%
Scored 3+ rate
19.0%
2.58
Venue Goals Mean
1.48
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.05
Goals against per game
1.05
53.2%
Conceding rate
62.0%
0.79
Goals against per game
1.21
54.5%
Conceding rate
69.0%
—
Goals against per game
1.00
—
Conceding rate
50.0%
62
History Matches
79
1.05
Conceded Mean
1.05
1.40
Conceded Std
1.10
22.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.8%
14.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.4%
0.79
Venue Conceded Mean
1.21
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
46.8%
Clean-sheet rate
38.0%
14.5%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
26.2%
—
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
46.8%
Clean-sheet rate
38.0%
14.5%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
26.2%
46.8%
Clean-sheet rate
38.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
79
0.83
Result entropy
0.93
2.76
Goal Difference Std
1.91
16.86
Stability score
6.68
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
79
29
Lead Matches
32
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
90.6%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.92
14
Trailing Matches
18
21.4%
Non-loss rate
27.8%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
79
0.97
First Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
1.25
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.39
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.95
Rest days
73.95
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
5
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.40
36
Normal Rest History Matches
49
1.89
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.71
22
Long Rest History Matches
24
2.27
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.83
Competition & season17 signals
170
0
Matches
2
—
PPG
3.00
—
Win rate
100.0%
—
Draw rate
0.0%
—
Loss rate
0.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
0
Current Competition Matches
2
—
Current Competition PPG
3.00
—
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.50
12
Competition Season Count
10
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.85
Portability PPG Std
0.55
2.50
Portability PPG Range
1.75
37.13
Portability Score
47.54
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
79
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO17.53
PPG0.26
GF0.60
GA0.00
PPG0.89
PPG-1.60
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-17
Clean-sheet rate8.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate14.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-17
Goals Mean0.60
Goals Std0.58
Scored 1+ rate4.5%
Scored 2+ rate6.7%
Scored 3+ rate21.3%
Venue Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.13
History Matches-17
Conceded Mean0.00
Conceded Std0.29
Clean-sheet rate8.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate3.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.43
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.49
History Matches-17
Result entropy-0.10
Goal Difference Std0.85
Stability score10.17
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.72
Eligible Matches-18
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate9.4%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate1.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches-18
First Half Goals For Mean0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.31
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches-2
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.29
Portability PPG Range0.75
Portability Score-10.41
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.60
Normal Rest History Matches-13
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.17
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.44
Current Team ELO17.53
Current Opponent ELO-17.53
Current ELO Difference35.07
Expected score0.05
History Matches-17
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.54
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Lincoln Red Imps FC

W
Hound Dogs0–5Lincoln Red Imps FC1 Nov · away
Pick: Lincoln Red Imps FC 76% · hit
W
Lincoln Red Imps FC3–0Lions Gibraltar25 Oct · home
Pick: Lincoln Red Imps FC 74% · hit
L
Lincoln Red Imps FC1–4Twente22 Oct · home
Pick: Lincoln Red Imps FC 46% · missed
W
Lynx1–2Lincoln Red Imps FC18 Oct · away
Pick: Lincoln Red Imps FC 55% · hit
L
Brann2–1Lincoln Red Imps FC15 Oct · away
Pick: Brann 43% · hit

HNK Hajduk Split

D
Istra 19612–2HNK Hajduk Split26 Oct · away
Pick: HNK Hajduk Split 41% · missed
W
FC Thun0–1HNK Hajduk Split22 Oct · away
Pick: HNK Hajduk Split 49% · hit
W
HNK Hajduk Split1–0NK Varazdin18 Oct · home
Pick: HNK Hajduk Split 46% · hit
W
HNK Hajduk Split2–1Ajax15 Oct · home
Pick: HNK Hajduk Split 48% · hit
W
HNK Hajduk Split2–0NK Lokomotiva Zagreb31 Aug · home
Pick: HNK Hajduk Split 61% · hit

About this match

Lincoln Red Imps FC and HNK Hajduk Split meet in UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 17:45 UTC. The match is played at Europa Point Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Lincoln Red Imps FC win 34.5%, draw 20.8%, HNK Hajduk Split win 44.7%. The pick is HNK Hajduk Split win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.6%. Both teams to score: 55.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.