ScoreProb
Serie C - Girone A Italy Girone A - 13 2026

Giana Erminio vs Cittadella

Giana Erminio Home · Elo 1,500
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cittadella Away · Elo 1,523
Stadio Citta di Gorgonzola Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Giana Erminio win
Giana Erminio winPick
39.6%
Draw
26.1%
Cittadella win
34.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.8%
No53.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.542.8%
Under 2.557.2%

How much we know

Giana Erminio history69 matches
Cittadella history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Giana Erminio are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,500 against 1,523. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.16 goals a game over 69 matches for Giana Erminio, against 1.08 over 64 for Cittadella.

  • Giana Erminio concede fewer

    Giana Erminio concede 1.07 a game, Cittadella 1.20.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    41% of Giana Erminio matches, against 38% for Cittadella. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Giana Erminio
Cittadella
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1499.9
ELO
1522.8
69
ELO · Matches
64
1499.9
Current Team ELO
1522.8
1522.8
Current Opponent ELO
1499.9
-22.87
Current ELO Difference
22.87
0.47
Expected score
0.53
69
History Matches
64
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.02
49.58
Overperformance
51.88
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.70
1.20
Goals for per game
1.30
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.64
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.74
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
69
Matches
64
1.52
PPG
1.38
43.5%
Win rate
37.5%
21.7%
Draw rate
25.0%
34.8%
Loss rate
37.5%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
62.5%
40.6%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
20.3%
Over 3.5 rate
21.9%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
30
1.67
PPG
1.40
48.5%
Win rate
40.0%
21.2%
Draw rate
20.0%
30.3%
Loss rate
40.0%
75.8%
Over 1.5 rate
56.7%
39.4%
Over 2.5 rate
30.0%
18.2%
Over 3.5 rate
13.3%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
33
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.16
Goals for per game
1.08
69.6%
Scoring rate
70.3%
43.5%
BTTS rate
46.9%
1.27
Goals for per game
0.97
78.8%
Scoring rate
73.3%
54.5%
BTTS rate
43.3%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
69
History Matches
64
1.16
Goals Mean
1.08
1.03
Goals Std
0.92
69.6%
Scored 1+ rate
70.3%
31.9%
Scored 2+ rate
29.7%
13.0%
Scored 3+ rate
6.3%
1.27
Venue Goals Mean
0.97
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.07
Goals against per game
1.20
65.2%
Conceding rate
71.9%
1.06
Goals against per game
1.07
72.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
69
History Matches
64
1.07
Conceded Mean
1.20
1.05
Conceded Std
1.05
27.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.9%
11.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.8%
1.06
Venue Conceded Mean
1.07
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
29.7%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
21.2%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
29.7%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
21.2%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
69
History Matches
64
0.97
Result entropy
0.99
1.60
Goal Difference Std
1.35
3.40
Stability score
1.49
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
69
Eligible Matches
64
20
Lead Matches
13
95.0%
Lead Win Rate
69.2%
0.97
Lead Points Retention
0.79
16
Trailing Matches
23
18.8%
Non-loss rate
39.1%
18.8%
Trailing Win Rate
13.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
69
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.33
0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.77
Rest days
77.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
44
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.45
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
23
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.52
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.26
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
10
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.48
Portability PPG Std
0.36
1.17
Portability PPG Range
0.95
50.85
Portability Score
58.20
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
69
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-22.87
PPG0.15
GF0.08
GA-0.13
PPG-3.00
PPG0.27
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate6.7%
Failed-to-score rate0.7%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.08
Goals Std0.11
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate2.2%
Scored 3+ rate6.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.31
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.11
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.13
Conceded Std0.01
Clean-sheet rate6.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate3.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.01
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.31
History Matches5
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.25
Stability score1.91
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.74
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate25.8%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate5.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.00
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.12
Portability PPG Range0.22
Portability Score-7.35
Rest days-0.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.05
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.26
Current Team ELO-22.87
Current Opponent ELO22.87
Current ELO Difference-45.75
Expected score-0.07
History Matches5
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.28

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Giana Erminio

L
Giana Erminio1–3Alcione31 Oct · home
Pick: Giana Erminio 44% · missed
W
Desenzano Calvina1–2Giana Erminio25 Oct · away
Pick: Desenzano Calvina 57% · missed
W
Giana Erminio2–1Union Brescia19 Oct · home
Pick: Union Brescia 36% · missed
D
Treviso0–0Giana Erminio4 Oct · away
Pick: Treviso 38% · missed
L
Lumezzane1–0Giana Erminio30 Aug · away
Pick: Giana Erminio 40% · missed

Cittadella

W
Cittadella1–0Treviso1 Nov · home
Pick: Cittadella 52% · hit
W
Union Brescia1–2Cittadella28 Oct · away
Pick: Union Brescia 39% · missed
L
Union Brescia2–1Cittadella24 Oct · away
Pick: Union Brescia 38% · hit
W
Cittadella1–0Arzignano Valchiampo19 Oct · home
Pick: Cittadella 51% · hit
W
Renate0–1Cittadella31 Aug · away
Pick: Renate 41% · missed

About this match

Giana Erminio and Cittadella meet in Serie C - Girone A on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Citta di Gorgonzola. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Giana Erminio win 39.6%, draw 26.1%, Cittadella win 34.3%. The pick is Giana Erminio win. Over 2.5 goals: 42.8%. Both teams to score: 46.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.