ScoreProb
Serie C - Girone A Italy Girone A - 13 2026

Desenzano Calvina vs Ospitaletto

Desenzano Calvina Home · Elo 1,639
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ospitaletto Away · Elo 1,490
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Desenzano Calvina win
Desenzano Calvina winPick
38.7%
Draw
26.6%
Ospitaletto win
34.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.0%
No54.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.542.9%
Under 2.557.1%

How much we know

Desenzano Calvina history55 matches
Ospitaletto history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.7%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Desenzano Calvina are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Desenzano Calvina are rated 149 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,639 against 1,490. On rating alone Desenzano Calvina would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.

  • Desenzano Calvina score more

    1.45 goals a game over 55 matches for Desenzano Calvina, against 1.23 over 62 for Ospitaletto.

  • Desenzano Calvina concede fewer

    Desenzano Calvina concede 0.67 a game, Ospitaletto 1.26.

  • Ospitaletto games more often go over 2.5 goals

    35% of Desenzano Calvina matches, against 52% for Ospitaletto. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Desenzano Calvina
Ospitaletto
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1639.2
ELO
1490.1
55
ELO · Matches
62
1639.2
Current Team ELO
1490.1
1490.1
Current Opponent ELO
1639.2
149.1
Current ELO Difference
-149.1
0.70
Expected score
0.30
55
History Matches
62
0.13
Residual Mean
-0.01
59.28
Overperformance
49.47
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.40
0.40
Goals for per game
1.60
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.50
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
0.50
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.68
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
62
1.96
PPG
1.23
58.2%
Win rate
29.0%
21.8%
Draw rate
35.5%
20.0%
Loss rate
35.5%
58.2%
Over 1.5 rate
72.6%
34.5%
Over 2.5 rate
51.6%
14.5%
Over 3.5 rate
25.8%
1.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.28
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
31
1.89
PPG
1.06
53.6%
Win rate
22.6%
28.6%
Draw rate
38.7%
17.9%
Loss rate
38.7%
60.7%
Over 1.5 rate
61.3%
32.1%
Over 2.5 rate
48.4%
21.4%
Over 3.5 rate
29.0%
1.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.21
28
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.45
Goals for per game
1.23
78.2%
Scoring rate
72.6%
38.2%
BTTS rate
59.7%
1.54
Goals for per game
1.03
78.6%
Scoring rate
64.5%
42.9%
BTTS rate
54.8%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
55
History Matches
62
1.45
Goals Mean
1.23
1.23
Goals Std
0.99
78.2%
Scored 1+ rate
72.6%
40.0%
Scored 2+ rate
37.1%
16.4%
Scored 3+ rate
12.9%
1.54
Venue Goals Mean
1.03
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.67
Goals against per game
1.26
52.7%
Conceding rate
74.2%
0.79
Goals against per game
1.26
60.7%
Conceding rate
74.2%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
55
History Matches
62
0.67
Conceded Mean
1.26
0.74
Conceded Std
1.00
12.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.7%
1.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.3%
0.79
Venue Conceded Mean
1.26
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
47.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
21.8%
Failed-to-score rate
27.4%
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
35.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
47.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
21.8%
Failed-to-score rate
27.4%
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
35.5%
47.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
62
0.88
Result entropy
1.00
1.40
Goal Difference Std
1.28
11.78
Stability score
0.39
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
62
23
Lead Matches
11
82.6%
Lead Win Rate
63.6%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.73
8
Trailing Matches
15
37.5%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
13.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.02
Rest days
78.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
42
Normal Rest History Matches
41
1.76
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.27
11
Long Rest History Matches
20
2.55
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.20
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
6
Competition Season Count
8
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.53
Portability PPG Std
0.65
1.30
Portability PPG Range
1.50
48.45
Portability Score
43.64
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO149.1
PPG0.74
GF0.23
GA-0.59
PPG-2.00
PPG0.83
PPG-0.80
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate21.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate13.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-7
Goals Mean0.23
Goals Std0.24
Scored 1+ rate5.6%
Scored 2+ rate2.9%
Scored 3+ rate3.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.12
History Matches-7
Conceded Mean-0.59
Conceded Std-0.26
Clean-sheet rate21.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.26
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.47
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.39
History Matches-7
Result entropy-0.11
Goal Difference Std0.12
Stability score11.39
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.18
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches12
Lead Win Rate19.0%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate17.5%
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.37
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.11
Portability PPG Range-0.20
Portability Score4.81
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.49
Long Rest History Matches-9
Long Rest Points Per Match1.35
Current Team ELO149.1
Current Opponent ELO-149.1
Current ELO Difference298.2
Expected score0.40
History Matches-7
Residual Mean0.13
Overperformance9.81
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Desenzano Calvina

L
Novara1–0Desenzano Calvina2 Nov · away
Pick: Desenzano Calvina 42% · missed
L
Desenzano Calvina0–1Dolomiti Bellunesi28 Oct · home
Pick: Desenzano Calvina 42% · missed
L
Desenzano Calvina1–2Giana Erminio25 Oct · home
Pick: Desenzano Calvina 57% · missed
L
Alcione4–1Desenzano Calvina18 Oct · away
Pick: Alcione 46% · hit
D
Desenzano Calvina0–0Trento31 Aug · home
Pick: Desenzano Calvina 44% · missed

Ospitaletto

D
Ospitaletto0–0Trento31 Oct · home
Pick: Ospitaletto 46% · missed
L
PRO Vercelli2–1Ospitaletto25 Oct · away
Pick: Ospitaletto 38% · missed
L
Ospitaletto2–3Pergolettese18 Oct · home
Pick: Ospitaletto 61% · missed
D
Albinoleffe1–1Ospitaletto31 Aug · away
Pick: Albinoleffe 36% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Desenzano Calvina and Ospitaletto meet in Serie C - Girone A on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Desenzano Calvina win 38.7%, draw 26.6%, Ospitaletto win 34.8%. The pick is Desenzano Calvina win. Over 2.5 goals: 42.9%. Both teams to score: 46.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.