ScoreProb
FA Cup England 1/128-finals 2026

Gillingham vs Barrow

Gillingham Home · Elo 1,452
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Barrow Away · Elo 1,426
Priestfield Stadium, Gillingham Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Gillingham win
Gillingham winPick
37.4%
Draw
28.4%
Barrow win
34.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.3%
No48.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.4%
Under 2.550.6%

How much we know

Gillingham history85 matches
Barrow history84 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Gillingham are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Gillingham are rated 26 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,452 against 1,426. On rating alone Gillingham would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.04 goals a game over 85 matches for Gillingham, against 1.13 over 84 for Barrow.

  • Defences are close

    Gillingham concede 1.33 a game, Barrow 1.43.

  • Barrow games more often go over 2.5 goals

    40% of Gillingham matches, against 54% for Barrow. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Gillingham
Barrow
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1451.9
ELO
1426.2
85
ELO · Matches
84
1451.9
Current Team ELO
1426.2
1426.2
Current Opponent ELO
1451.9
25.70
Current ELO Difference
-25.70
0.54
Expected score
0.46
85
History Matches
84
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.04
47.67
Overperformance
46.56
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
0.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.30
1.80
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.19
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.99
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.58
Overall performance9 signals
90
85
Matches
84
1.20
PPG
1.12
28.2%
Win rate
29.8%
35.3%
Draw rate
22.6%
36.5%
Loss rate
47.6%
67.1%
Over 1.5 rate
70.2%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
53.6%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
Venue performance10 signals
100
42
Matches
42
1.31
PPG
1.07
33.3%
Win rate
26.2%
31.0%
Draw rate
28.6%
35.7%
Loss rate
45.2%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
76.2%
40.5%
Over 2.5 rate
64.3%
19.0%
Over 3.5 rate
38.1%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
42
History Matches
42
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.04
Goals for per game
1.13
71.8%
Scoring rate
65.5%
50.6%
BTTS rate
46.4%
1.02
Goals for per game
1.19
73.8%
Scoring rate
69.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
52.4%
85
History Matches
84
1.04
Goals Mean
1.13
0.93
Goals Std
1.00
71.8%
Scored 1+ rate
65.5%
21.2%
Scored 2+ rate
39.3%
8.2%
Scored 3+ rate
7.1%
1.02
Venue Goals Mean
1.19
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.33
Goals against per game
1.43
70.6%
Conceding rate
71.4%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.60
69.0%
Conceding rate
71.4%
85
History Matches
84
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.43
1.29
Conceded Std
1.20
36.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.6%
15.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.0%
1.33
Venue Conceded Mean
1.60
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
28.2%
Failed-to-score rate
34.5%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
26.2%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
28.2%
Failed-to-score rate
34.5%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
26.2%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
85
History Matches
84
0.99
Result entropy
0.96
1.59
Goal Difference Std
1.56
0.56
Stability score
4.41
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
84
Eligible Matches
84
16
Lead Matches
21
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.58
Lead Points Retention
0.76
26
Trailing Matches
24
30.8%
Non-loss rate
20.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
84
Halftime Coverage Matches
84
0.38
First Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.89
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.25
71
Normal Rest History Matches
72
1.08
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.21
9
Long Rest History Matches
7
1.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.86
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
9
Competition Season Count
8
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.45
Portability PPG Std
0.80
1.25
Portability PPG Range
2.27
52.70
Portability Score
38.46
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
85
Clean History Matches
84
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO25.70
PPG0.08
GF-0.10
GA-0.10
PPG0.24
PPG0.00
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate0.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate2.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.10
Goals Std-0.07
Scored 1+ rate6.3%
Scored 2+ rate-0.18
Scored 3+ rate1.1%
Venue Goals Mean-0.17
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.19
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.10
Conceded Std0.09
Clean-sheet rate0.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.26
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.79
History Matches1
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.02
Stability score-3.85
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.65
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.21
Lead Points Retention-0.18
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate9.9%
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.35
Portability PPG Range-1.02
Portability Score14.24
Rest days-0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.12
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.81
Current Team ELO25.70
Current Opponent ELO-25.70
Current ELO Difference51.39
Expected score0.07
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance1.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Gillingham

W
Shrewsbury1–2Gillingham31 Oct · away
Pick: Gillingham 42% · hit
L
Gillingham1–4Grimsby24 Oct · home
Pick: Grimsby 54% · hit
D
Gillingham1–1Port Vale20 Oct · home
Pick: Port Vale 40% · missed
L
Accrington ST3–1Gillingham17 Oct · away
Pick: Accrington ST 51% · hit
W
Gillingham4–3Brighton U2113 Oct · home
Pick: Gillingham 48% · hit

Barrow

D
Barrow1–1Eastleigh31 Oct · home
Pick: Eastleigh 36% · missed
W
FC Halifax Town2–3Barrow27 Oct · away
Pick: FC Halifax Town 58% · missed
D
Barrow0–0Gloucester City17 Oct · home
Pick: Barrow 40% · missed
D
Kidderminster Harriers1–1Barrow31 Aug · away
Pick: Kidderminster Harriers 58% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Gillingham and Barrow meet in FA Cup on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Priestfield Stadium, Gillingham. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Gillingham win 37.4%, draw 28.4%, Barrow win 34.2%. The pick is Gillingham win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.4%. Both teams to score: 51.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.