ScoreProb
Reserve League Argentina Round 16 2026

Gimnasia La Plata Res. vs Gimnasia Mendoza 2

Gimnasia La Plata Res. Home · Elo 1,535
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Gimnasia Mendoza 2 Away · Elo 1,484
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Gimnasia La Plata Res. win
Gimnasia La Plata Res. winPick
52.7%
Draw
27.7%
Gimnasia Mendoza 2 win
19.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes43.4%
No56.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.542.5%
Under 2.557.5%

How much we know

Gimnasia La Plata Res. history58 matches
Gimnasia Mendoza 2 history21 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Gimnasia La Plata Res. are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Gimnasia La Plata Res. are rated 51 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,535 against 1,484. On rating alone Gimnasia La Plata Res. would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Gimnasia La Plata Res. score more

    1.33 goals a game over 58 matches for Gimnasia La Plata Res., against 0.90 over 21 for Gimnasia Mendoza 2.

  • Defences are close

    Gimnasia La Plata Res. concede 0.97 a game, Gimnasia Mendoza 2 1.00.

  • Gimnasia La Plata Res. games more often go over 2.5 goals

    41% of Gimnasia La Plata Res. matches, against 33% for Gimnasia Mendoza 2. The model puts this match at 42% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Gimnasia La Plata Res.
Gimnasia Mendoza 2
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1534.5
ELO
1484.0
58
ELO · Matches
21
1534.5
Current Team ELO
1484.0
1484.0
Current Opponent ELO
1534.5
50.53
Current ELO Difference
-50.53
0.57
Expected score
0.43
58
History Matches
21
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.03
52.37
Overperformance
48.31
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
0.60
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.30
0.70
Goals for per game
1.20
0.70
Goals against per game
1.30
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.27
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.22
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
21
1.50
PPG
1.24
37.9%
Win rate
33.3%
36.2%
Draw rate
23.8%
25.9%
Loss rate
42.9%
70.7%
Over 1.5 rate
57.1%
41.4%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
24.1%
Over 3.5 rate
9.5%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.15
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
10
1.63
PPG
1.20
46.7%
Win rate
30.0%
23.3%
Draw rate
30.0%
30.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
76.7%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
43.3%
Over 2.5 rate
30.0%
30.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.14
30
History Matches
10
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.33
Goals for per game
0.90
65.5%
Scoring rate
52.4%
41.4%
BTTS rate
38.1%
1.47
Goals for per game
0.90
70.0%
Scoring rate
40.0%
36.7%
BTTS rate
30.0%
1.04
Goals for per game
0.90
54.2%
Scoring rate
52.4%
33.3%
BTTS rate
38.1%
58
History Matches
21
1.33
Goals Mean
0.90
1.22
Goals Std
1.02
65.5%
Scored 1+ rate
52.4%
43.1%
Scored 2+ rate
28.6%
19.0%
Scored 3+ rate
9.5%
1.47
Venue Goals Mean
0.90
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.97
Goals against per game
1.00
58.6%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.07
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
0.83
Goals against per game
1.00
54.2%
Conceding rate
66.7%
58
History Matches
21
0.97
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.00
Conceded Std
0.82
29.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
6.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
1.07
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
41.4%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
34.5%
Failed-to-score rate
47.6%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
45.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
45.8%
Failed-to-score rate
47.6%
41.4%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
34.5%
Failed-to-score rate
47.6%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
41.4%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
21
0.99
Result entropy
0.97
1.59
Goal Difference Std
1.15
1.21
Stability score
2.51
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
21
16
Lead Matches
4
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
1.00
14
Trailing Matches
6
28.6%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
21
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
71.00
Rest days
85.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
29
Normal Rest History Matches
9
1.55
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
28
Long Rest History Matches
11
1.46
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.45
Competition & season17 signals
170
24
Matches
21
1.33
PPG
1.24
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
23.8%
33.3%
Loss rate
42.9%
62.5%
Over 1.5 rate
57.1%
29.2%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
9.5%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.15
24
Current Competition Matches
21
1.33
Current Competition PPG
1.24
0.21
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.10
2
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.14
Portability PPG Std
—
0.28
Portability PPG Range
—
77.86
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
21
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO50.53
PPG0.26
GF0.42
GA-0.03
PPG0.10
PPG0.43
PPG0.40
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches37
Clean-sheet rate8.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches20
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.30
History Matches37
Goals Mean0.42
Goals Std0.20
Scored 1+ rate13.1%
Scored 2+ rate14.5%
Scored 3+ rate9.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.57
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.10
History Matches37
Conceded Mean-0.03
Conceded Std0.18
Clean-sheet rate8.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate6.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.12
History Matches37
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.44
Stability score-1.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.26
Eligible Matches37
Lead Matches12
Lead Win Rate-0.25
Lead Points Retention-0.19
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate11.9%
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches37
First Half Goals For Mean0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Current Competition Matches3
Current Competition PPG0.10
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.30
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-14.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches20
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.55
Long Rest History Matches17
Long Rest Points Per Match0.01
Current Team ELO50.53
Current Opponent ELO-50.53
Current ELO Difference101.1
Expected score0.14
History Matches37
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Gimnasia La Plata Res.

L
Barracas Central Res.1–0Gimnasia La Plata Res.29 Oct · away
Pick: Gimnasia La Plata Res. 44% · missed
L
Gimnasia La Plata Res.0–1Talleres Córdoba Res.21 Oct · home
Pick: Gimnasia La Plata Res. 44% · missed
L
Banfield Res.1–0Gimnasia La Plata Res.13 Oct · away
Pick: Gimnasia La Plata Res. 39% · missed
D
Gimnasia La Plata Res.2–2Rosario Central Res.6 Oct · home
Pick: Gimnasia La Plata Res. 38% · missed
L
Gimnasia La Plata Res.0–1River Plate Res.1 Sep · home
Pick: Gimnasia La Plata Res. 37% · missed

Gimnasia Mendoza 2

W
Gimnasia Mendoza 21–0Unión Santa Fe Res.28 Oct · home
Pick: Unión Santa Fe Res. 39% · missed
D
Atlético Tucumán Res.0–0Gimnasia Mendoza 222 Oct · away
Pick: Atlético Tucumán Res. 46% · missed
D
Gimnasia Mendoza 20–0Godoy Cruz Res.15 Oct · home
Pick: Gimnasia Mendoza 2 45% · missed
D
Gimnasia Mendoza 21–1Instituto Res.7 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 33% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Gimnasia La Plata Res. and Gimnasia Mendoza 2 meet in Reserve League on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Gimnasia La Plata Res. win 52.7%, draw 27.7%, Gimnasia Mendoza 2 win 19.6%. The pick is Gimnasia La Plata Res. win. Over 2.5 goals: 42.5%. Both teams to score: 43.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.