ScoreProb
Reserve League Argentina Round 16 2026

Vélez Sársfield Res. vs San Lorenzo Res.

Vélez Sársfield Res. Home · Elo 1,589
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
San Lorenzo Res. Away · Elo 1,538
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Vélez Sársfield Res. win
Vélez Sársfield Res. winPick
50.9%
Draw
24.9%
San Lorenzo Res. win
24.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.1%
No50.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.6%
Under 2.550.4%

How much we know

Vélez Sársfield Res. history60 matches
San Lorenzo Res. history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Vélez Sársfield Res. are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Vélez Sársfield Res. are rated 51 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,589 against 1,538. On rating alone Vélez Sársfield Res. would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Vélez Sársfield Res. score more

    1.57 goals a game over 60 matches for Vélez Sársfield Res., against 1.27 over 59 for San Lorenzo Res..

  • Vélez Sársfield Res. concede fewer

    Vélez Sársfield Res. concede 0.80 a game, San Lorenzo Res. 1.07.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    43% of Vélez Sársfield Res. matches, against 44% for San Lorenzo Res.. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Vélez Sársfield Res.
San Lorenzo Res.
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1588.9
ELO
1538.0
60
ELO · Matches
59
1588.9
Current Team ELO
1538.0
1538.0
Current Opponent ELO
1588.9
50.91
Current ELO Difference
-50.91
0.57
Expected score
0.43
60
History Matches
59
0.08
Residual Mean
0.02
55.82
Overperformance
51.57
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
0.40
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
1.30
0.40
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.10
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
59
1.83
PPG
1.46
51.7%
Win rate
37.3%
28.3%
Draw rate
33.9%
20.0%
Loss rate
28.8%
68.3%
Over 1.5 rate
66.1%
43.3%
Over 2.5 rate
44.1%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
27.1%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.38
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
33
2.03
PPG
1.27
59.4%
Win rate
27.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
45.5%
15.6%
Loss rate
27.3%
78.1%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
46.9%
Over 2.5 rate
42.4%
31.3%
Over 3.5 rate
27.3%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.24
32
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.57
Goals for per game
1.27
76.7%
Scoring rate
71.2%
46.7%
BTTS rate
52.5%
1.81
Goals for per game
1.12
81.3%
Scoring rate
69.7%
43.8%
BTTS rate
57.6%
1.76
Goals for per game
1.23
80.0%
Scoring rate
72.7%
36.0%
BTTS rate
54.5%
60
History Matches
59
1.57
Goals Mean
1.27
1.23
Goals Std
1.13
76.7%
Scored 1+ rate
71.2%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
39.0%
20.0%
Scored 3+ rate
10.2%
1.81
Venue Goals Mean
1.12
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.80
Goals against per game
1.07
61.7%
Conceding rate
67.8%
0.69
Goals against per game
1.09
53.1%
Conceding rate
66.7%
0.60
Goals against per game
1.14
48.0%
Conceding rate
68.2%
60
History Matches
59
0.80
Conceded Mean
1.07
0.77
Conceded Std
0.95
15.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.8%
3.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.2%
0.69
Venue Conceded Mean
1.09
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
38.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.2%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.8%
46.9%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.3%
52.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
38.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.2%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.8%
46.9%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.3%
38.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
59
0.93
Result entropy
0.99
1.48
Goal Difference Std
1.38
7.12
Stability score
0.50
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
60
Eligible Matches
59
24
Lead Matches
15
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.84
11
Trailing Matches
13
45.5%
Non-loss rate
23.1%
18.2%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.78
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.37
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
71.00
Rest days
83.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
38
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.92
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.26
21
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.76
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.74
Competition & season17 signals
170
25
Matches
22
2.04
PPG
1.45
60.0%
Win rate
36.4%
24.0%
Draw rate
36.4%
16.0%
Loss rate
27.3%
68.0%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
32.0%
Over 3.5 rate
27.3%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
25
Current Competition Matches
22
2.04
Current Competition PPG
1.45
1.16
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.09
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.00
0.35
Portability PPG Range
0.00
73.84
Portability Score
99.51
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO50.91
PPG0.38
GF0.30
GA-0.27
PPG0.59
PPG0.76
PPG-0.20
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate6.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate13.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.30
Goals Std0.10
Scored 1+ rate5.5%
Scored 2+ rate11.0%
Scored 3+ rate9.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.69
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.35
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.27
Conceded Std-0.18
Clean-sheet rate6.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.28
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std0.10
Stability score6.62
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.44
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate7.5%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate22.4%
Trailing Win Rate18.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Current Competition Matches3
Current Competition PPG0.59
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.07
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.17
Portability PPG Range0.35
Portability Score-25.67
Rest days-12.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.66
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.02
Current Team ELO50.91
Current Opponent ELO-50.91
Current ELO Difference101.8
Expected score0.15
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Vélez Sársfield Res.

W
Instituto Res.0–2Vélez Sársfield Res.29 Oct · away
Pick: Vélez Sársfield Res. 41% · hit
D
River Plate Res.1–1Vélez Sársfield Res.21 Oct · away
Pick: River Plate Res. 36% · missed
W
Vélez Sársfield Res.4–0Racing Club Res.15 Oct · home
Pick: Vélez Sársfield Res. 58% · hit
W
Sarmiento Res.0–1Vélez Sársfield Res.8 Oct · away
Pick: Vélez Sársfield Res. 49% · hit
D
Unión Santa Fe Res.0–0Vélez Sársfield Res.1 Sep · away
Pick: Vélez Sársfield Res. 41% · missed

San Lorenzo Res.

L
San Lorenzo Res.0–3River Plate Res.28 Oct · home
Pick: River Plate Res. 37% · hit
W
Racing Club Res.2–3San Lorenzo Res.22 Oct · away
Pick: Racing Club Res. 37% · missed
D
San Lorenzo Res.1–1Sarmiento Res.15 Oct · home
Pick: San Lorenzo Res. 51% · missed
W
San Lorenzo Res.3–0Godoy Cruz Res.26 Aug · home
Pick: San Lorenzo Res. 55% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Vélez Sársfield Res. and San Lorenzo Res. meet in Reserve League on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Vélez Sársfield Res. win 50.9%, draw 24.9%, San Lorenzo Res. win 24.2%. The pick is Vélez Sársfield Res. win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.6%. Both teams to score: 49.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.