ScoreProb
Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 Spain Group 2 - 10 2026

SD Logroñés vs Calamocha

SD Logroñés Home · Elo 1,506
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Calamocha Away · Elo 1,625
Estadio Las Gaunas Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: SD Logroñés win
SD Logroñés winPick
36.0%
Draw
28.9%
Calamocha win
35.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.7%
No52.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.1%
Under 2.556.9%

How much we know

SD Logroñés history54 matches
Calamocha history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.0%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why SD Logroñés are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Calamocha are rated 119 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,625 against 1,506. On rating alone Calamocha would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Calamocha score more

    1.02 goals a game over 54 matches for SD Logroñés, against 1.41 over 49 for Calamocha.

  • Calamocha concede fewer

    SD Logroñés concede 1.11 a game, Calamocha 0.80.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    37% of SD Logroñés matches, against 39% for Calamocha. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 17 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
SD Logroñés
Calamocha
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1505.7
ELO
1625.1
54
ELO · Matches
49
1505.7
Current Team ELO
1625.1
1625.1
Current Opponent ELO
1505.7
-119.4
Current ELO Difference
119.4
0.33
Expected score
0.67
54
History Matches
49
0.00
Residual Mean
0.13
50.29
Overperformance
59.26
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
2.60
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
0.60
Goals against per game
0.00
80.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
2.30
0.70
Goals for per game
1.30
1.10
Goals against per game
0.30
40.0%
Win rate
70.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.30
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.10
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
49
1.46
PPG
1.98
38.9%
Win rate
57.1%
29.6%
Draw rate
26.5%
31.5%
Loss rate
16.3%
64.8%
Over 1.5 rate
65.3%
37.0%
Over 2.5 rate
38.8%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
18.4%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.45
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
23
1.52
PPG
2.04
40.7%
Win rate
60.9%
29.6%
Draw rate
21.7%
29.6%
Loss rate
17.4%
63.0%
Over 1.5 rate
56.5%
40.7%
Over 2.5 rate
26.1%
18.5%
Over 3.5 rate
13.0%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
27
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.02
Goals for per game
1.41
64.8%
Scoring rate
79.6%
40.7%
BTTS rate
38.8%
1.07
Goals for per game
1.22
63.0%
Scoring rate
73.9%
37.0%
BTTS rate
30.4%
54
History Matches
49
1.02
Goals Mean
1.41
0.99
Goals Std
1.01
64.8%
Scored 1+ rate
79.6%
25.9%
Scored 2+ rate
44.9%
9.3%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
1.07
Venue Goals Mean
1.22
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.11
Goals against per game
0.80
61.1%
Conceding rate
49.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.78
55.6%
Conceding rate
43.5%
54
History Matches
49
1.11
Conceded Mean
0.80
1.21
Conceded Std
1.03
29.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
20.4%
13.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.1%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
0.78
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
51.0%
35.2%
Failed-to-score rate
20.4%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
56.5%
37.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
51.0%
35.2%
Failed-to-score rate
20.4%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
56.5%
37.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
51.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
49
0.99
Result entropy
0.88
1.67
Goal Difference Std
1.45
0.64
Stability score
11.92
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
49
16
Lead Matches
18
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.83
12
Trailing Matches
6
25.0%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.46
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
0.56
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
175.0
Rest days
182.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
31
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.35
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.81
22
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.68
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.14
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.60
Portability PPG Std
0.31
1.20
Portability PPG Range
0.62
45.51
Portability Score
61.75
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-119.4
PPG-0.52
GF-0.39
GA0.32
PPG-0.52
PPG-0.20
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate14.8%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate11.0%
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.39
Goals Std-0.02
Scored 1+ rate-0.15
Scored 2+ rate-0.19
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.32
Conceded Std0.18
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Conceded 2+ rate9.2%
Conceded 3+ rate6.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.22
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.40
History Matches5
Result entropy0.11
Goal Difference Std0.22
Stability score-11.27
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.26
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.25
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.29
Portability PPG Range0.58
Portability Score-16.25
Rest days-7.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.46
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.46
Current Team ELO-119.4
Current Opponent ELO119.4
Current ELO Difference-238.8
Expected score-0.33
History Matches5
Residual Mean-0.13
Overperformance-8.97
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

SD Logroñés

D
Ebro2–2SD Logroñés31 Oct · away
Pick: Ebro 40% · missed
D
SD Logroñés0–0Terrassa25 Oct · home
Pick: SD Logroñés 49% · missed
D
SD Logroñés1–1Náxara18 Oct · home
Pick: SD Logroñés 35% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Calamocha

L
Calamocha0–1Girona II31 Oct · home
Pick: Calamocha 38% · missed
L
Calamocha0–3Europa Fc27 Oct · home
Pick: Europa Fc 38% · hit
D
Arnedo1–1Calamocha24 Oct · away
Pick: Arnedo 50% · missed
D
Calamocha1–1Peña Sport18 Oct · home
Pick: Peña Sport 39% · missed
L
Osasuna II2–0Calamocha4 Oct · away
Pick: Osasuna II 40% · hit

About this match

SD Logroñés and Calamocha meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:30 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Las Gaunas. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: SD Logroñés win 36.0%, draw 28.9%, Calamocha win 35.1%. The pick is SD Logroñés win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.1%. Both teams to score: 47.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.