ScoreProb
Regionalliga - South Austria South - 14 2026

Gleisdorf 09 vs Weiz

Gleisdorf 09 Home · Elo 1,460
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Weiz Away · Elo 1,502
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Weiz win
Gleisdorf 09 win
28.6%
Draw
18.3%
Weiz winPick
53.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.8%
No36.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.571.4%
Under 2.528.6%

How much we know

Gleisdorf 09 history51 matches
Weiz history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Weiz are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Weiz are rated 43 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,502 against 1,460. On rating alone Weiz would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Weiz score more

    1.65 goals a game over 51 matches for Gleisdorf 09, against 2.22 over 65 for Weiz.

  • Weiz concede fewer

    Gleisdorf 09 concede 2.20 a game, Weiz 1.95.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    69% of Gleisdorf 09 matches, against 75% for Weiz. The model puts this match at 71% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Gleisdorf 09
Weiz
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1459.7
ELO
1502.3
51
ELO · Matches
65
1459.7
Current Team ELO
1502.3
1502.3
Current Opponent ELO
1459.7
-42.64
Current ELO Difference
42.64
0.44
Expected score
0.56
51
History Matches
65
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.01
47.91
Overperformance
50.42
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.60
1.40
Goals for per game
2.40
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
2.10
2.10
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.45
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.25
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.05
Overall performance9 signals
90
51
Matches
65
1.18
PPG
1.46
31.4%
Win rate
40.0%
23.5%
Draw rate
26.2%
45.1%
Loss rate
33.8%
90.2%
Over 1.5 rate
89.2%
68.6%
Over 2.5 rate
75.4%
49.0%
Over 3.5 rate
63.1%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.65
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
31
1.29
PPG
1.19
35.7%
Win rate
32.3%
21.4%
Draw rate
22.6%
42.9%
Loss rate
45.2%
89.3%
Over 1.5 rate
87.1%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
77.4%
53.6%
Over 3.5 rate
61.3%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.67
28
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.65
Goals for per game
2.22
82.4%
Scoring rate
86.2%
72.5%
BTTS rate
72.3%
1.64
Goals for per game
1.87
89.3%
Scoring rate
77.4%
78.6%
BTTS rate
67.7%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
51
History Matches
65
1.65
Goals Mean
2.22
1.25
Goals Std
1.71
82.4%
Scored 1+ rate
86.2%
52.9%
Scored 2+ rate
60.0%
17.6%
Scored 3+ rate
32.3%
1.64
Venue Goals Mean
1.87
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.20
Goals against per game
1.95
90.2%
Conceding rate
84.6%
2.25
Goals against per game
2.19
89.3%
Conceding rate
87.1%
1.33
Goals against per game
0.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
33.3%
51
History Matches
65
2.20
Conceded Mean
1.95
1.67
Conceded Std
1.60
56.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.3%
35.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
30.8%
2.25
Venue Conceded Mean
2.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
9.8%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
13.8%
10.7%
Clean-sheet rate
12.9%
10.7%
Failed-to-score rate
22.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
9.8%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
13.8%
10.7%
Clean-sheet rate
12.9%
10.7%
Failed-to-score rate
22.6%
9.8%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
51
History Matches
65
0.97
Result entropy
0.99
2.12
Goal Difference Std
2.65
3.22
Stability score
1.33
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
51
Eligible Matches
62
18
Lead Matches
23
61.1%
Lead Win Rate
65.2%
0.72
Lead Points Retention
0.74
17
Trailing Matches
18
5.9%
Non-loss rate
27.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.84
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.86
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.21
1.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.11
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
5
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.20
27
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.04
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.92
22
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.41
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.04
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
1.33
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
66.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.33
-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
5
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.50
Portability PPG Std
0.30
1.28
Portability PPG Range
0.76
49.92
Portability Score
62.68
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
51
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-42.64
PPG-0.29
GF-0.57
GA0.24
PPG-0.33
PPG0.09
PPG-0.40
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate3.8%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches-14
Goals Mean-0.57
Goals Std-0.46
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Goals Mean-0.23
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.33
History Matches-14
Conceded Mean0.24
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate4.6%
Conceded 3+ rate4.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.62
History Matches-14
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.53
Stability score1.88
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.36
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.22
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.33
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.20
Portability PPG Range0.52
Portability Score-12.76
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.20
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.88
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.37
Current Team ELO-42.64
Current Opponent ELO42.64
Current ELO Difference-85.27
Expected score-0.12
History Matches-14
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.51
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Gleisdorf 09

W
Allerheiligen0–2Gleisdorf 0930 Oct · away
Pick: Allerheiligen 41% · missed
W
Gleisdorf 095–3Deutschlandsberger SC23 Oct · home
Pick: Deutschlandsberger SC 45% · missed
L
SV Lafnitz4–2Gleisdorf 0916 Oct · away
Pick: SV Lafnitz 45% · hit
L
Deutschlandsberger SC4–2Gleisdorf 091 Sep · away
Pick: Deutschlandsberger SC 54% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Weiz

W
Weiz5–0Tillmitsch30 Oct · home
Pick: Weiz 52% · hit
L
Hartberg (Am)2–0Weiz24 Oct · away
Pick: Weiz 50% · missed
D
Weiz0–0Kalsdorf16 Oct · home
Pick: Weiz 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Gleisdorf 09 and Weiz meet in Regionalliga - South on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Gleisdorf 09 win 28.6%, draw 18.3%, Weiz win 53.0%. The pick is Weiz win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.4%. Both teams to score: 63.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.