ScoreProb
Derde Divisie Netherlands Round 12 2026

GOES vs Achilles Veen

GOES Home · Elo 1,446
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Achilles Veen Away · Elo 1,495
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: GOES win
GOES winPick
71.4%
Draw
11.0%
Achilles Veen win
17.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.8%
No42.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.580.7%
Under 2.519.3%

How much we know

GOES history49 matches
Achilles Veen history3 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (71.4%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why GOES are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Achilles Veen are rated 49 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,495 against 1,446. On rating alone Achilles Veen would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.33 goals a game over 49 matches for GOES, against 1.33 over 3 for Achilles Veen.

  • GOES concede fewer

    GOES concede 1.80 a game, Achilles Veen 3.33.

  • Achilles Veen games more often go over 2.5 goals

    65% of GOES matches, against 100% for Achilles Veen. The model puts this match at 81% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
GOES
Achilles Veen@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1446.2
ELO
1495.1
49
ELO · Matches
3
1446.2
Current Team ELO
1495.1
1495.1
Current Opponent ELO
1446.2
-48.91
Current ELO Difference
48.91
0.43
Expected score
0.57
49
History Matches
3
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.11
46.30
Overperformance
48.59
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
1.00
2.20
Goals for per game
1.33
2.40
Goals against per game
3.33
20.0%
Win rate
33.3%
10
Matches
3
0.90
PPG
1.00
1.70
Goals for per game
1.33
2.00
Goals against per game
3.33
20.0%
Win rate
33.3%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.33
1.42
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.25
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.33
1.26
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
1.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.16
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
3
1.16
PPG
1.00
30.6%
Win rate
33.3%
24.5%
Draw rate
0.0%
44.9%
Loss rate
66.7%
79.6%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
65.3%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
40.8%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
2
1.08
PPG
1.50
28.0%
Win rate
50.0%
24.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
48.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
68.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
48.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
25
History Matches
2
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.33
Goals for per game
1.33
67.3%
Scoring rate
66.7%
53.1%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.32
Goals for per game
2.00
76.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
64.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
2.50
Goals for per game
0.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
49
History Matches
3
1.33
Goals Mean
1.33
1.28
Goals Std
1.25
67.3%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
36.7%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
20.4%
Scored 3+ rate
33.3%
1.32
Venue Goals Mean
2.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.80
Goals against per game
3.33
81.6%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.96
Goals against per game
3.00
84.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
4.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
49
History Matches
3
1.80
Conceded Mean
3.33
1.31
Conceded Std
0.94
53.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
100.0%
32.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
66.7%
1.96
Venue Conceded Mean
3.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.4%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
32.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
16.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
18.4%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
32.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
16.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
18.4%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
3
0.97
Result entropy
0.58
2.00
Goal Difference Std
2.16
2.93
Stability score
42.06
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
36
Eligible Matches
2
8
Lead Matches
1
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
1.00
14
Trailing Matches
1
35.7%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
36
Halftime Coverage Matches
2
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
0.97
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
1.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean
2.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.13
Rest days
77.10
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
27
Normal Rest History Matches
1
1.07
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.00
21
Long Rest History Matches
1
1.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
0.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-3.50
4
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
0.20
Portability PPG Std
—
0.40
Portability PPG Range
—
71.57
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
3
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-48.91
PPG0.16
GF-0.01
GA-1.54
PPG2.00
PPG-0.42
PPG0.00
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches46
Clean-sheet rate18.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches23
Clean-sheet rate16.0%
Failed-to-score rate24.0%
History Matches46
Goals Mean-0.01
Goals Std0.04
Scored 1+ rate0.7%
Scored 2+ rate3.4%
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean-0.68
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.37
Recent 10 Goals Std0.17
History Matches46
Conceded Mean-1.54
Conceded Std0.37
Clean-sheet rate18.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.47
Conceded 3+ rate-0.34
Venue Conceded Mean-1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.32
History Matches46
Result entropy0.39
Goal Difference Std-0.16
Stability score-39.14
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.26
Eligible Matches34
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches13
Non-loss rate35.7%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches34
First Half Goals For Mean-0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.94
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean4.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days-0.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches26
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.07
Long Rest History Matches20
Long Rest Points Per Match1.29
Current Team ELO-48.91
Current Opponent ELO48.91
Current ELO Difference-97.83
Expected score-0.14
History Matches46
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance-2.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

GOES

L
Noordwijk3–2GOES24 Oct · away
Pick: Noordwijk 61% · hit
L
GOES2–6FC Lisse18 Oct · home
Pick: FC Lisse 60% · hit
L
GOES0–4UDI '194 Oct · home
Pick: GOES 40% · missed
L
GOES1–4Rijnvogels30 Aug · home
Pick: GOES 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Achilles Veen

L
Achilles Veen1–4Rijnvogels24 Oct · home
Pick: Rijnvogels 65% · hit
L
Gemert2–0Achilles Veen17 Oct · away
Pick: Gemert 78% · hit
W
Achilles Veen4–2Poortugaal1 Sep · home
Pick: Poortugaal 48% · missed
W
Achilles Veen3–2Blauw Geel29 Aug · home
Pick: Blauw Geel 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

GOES and Achilles Veen meet in Derde Divisie on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: GOES win 71.4%, draw 11.0%, Achilles Veen win 17.6%. The pick is GOES win. Over 2.5 goals: 80.7%. Both teams to score: 57.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.