ScoreProb
Serie B Brazil Round 37 2026

Goias vs Ponte Preta

Goias Home · Elo 1,554
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ponte Preta Away · Elo 1,387
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Goias win
Goias winPick
67.7%
Draw
21.8%
Ponte Preta win
10.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes43.6%
No56.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.1%
Under 2.551.9%

How much we know

Goias history70 matches
Ponte Preta history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 13 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 22:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (67.7%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Goias are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Goias are rated 167 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,554 against 1,387. On rating alone Goias would be expected to take 72% of the points on offer.

  • Goias score more

    1.09 goals a game over 70 matches for Goias, against 0.75 over 55 for Ponte Preta.

  • Goias concede fewer

    Goias concede 0.86 a game, Ponte Preta 1.42.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    27% of Goias matches, against 35% for Ponte Preta. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Goias
Ponte Preta
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1553.7
ELO
1386.7
70
ELO · Matches
55
1553.7
Current Team ELO
1386.7
1386.7
Current Opponent ELO
1553.7
167.0
Current ELO Difference
-167.0
0.72
Expected score
0.28
70
History Matches
55
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.10
53.38
Overperformance
42.90
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.40
0.40
Goals for per game
0.40
0.80
Goals against per game
2.40
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
0.20
1.00
Goals for per game
0.60
0.80
Goals against per game
2.30
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
0.77
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.66
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.35
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
0.98
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
70
Matches
55
1.53
PPG
0.96
40.0%
Win rate
25.5%
32.9%
Draw rate
20.0%
27.1%
Loss rate
54.5%
58.6%
Over 1.5 rate
67.3%
27.1%
Over 2.5 rate
34.5%
15.7%
Over 3.5 rate
10.9%
1.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
26
1.81
PPG
0.77
54.1%
Win rate
23.1%
18.9%
Draw rate
7.7%
27.0%
Loss rate
69.2%
59.5%
Over 1.5 rate
73.1%
35.1%
Over 2.5 rate
46.2%
18.9%
Over 3.5 rate
11.5%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
37
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.09
Goals for per game
0.75
70.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
38.2%
1.30
Goals for per game
0.65
78.4%
Scoring rate
50.0%
37.8%
BTTS rate
34.6%
0.96
Goals for per game
0.65
65.2%
Scoring rate
52.2%
34.8%
BTTS rate
52.2%
70
History Matches
55
1.09
Goals Mean
0.75
1.00
Goals Std
0.69
70.0%
Scored 1+ rate
60.0%
27.1%
Scored 2+ rate
14.5%
7.1%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.30
Venue Goals Mean
0.65
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.86
Goals against per game
1.42
60.0%
Conceding rate
70.9%
0.84
Goals against per game
1.81
54.1%
Conceding rate
80.8%
1.09
Goals against per game
2.17
69.6%
Conceding rate
95.7%
70
History Matches
55
0.86
Conceded Mean
1.42
0.90
Conceded Std
1.26
18.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.3%
5.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.5%
0.84
Venue Conceded Mean
1.81
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.1%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
45.9%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
21.6%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
4.3%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
47.8%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.1%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
45.9%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
21.6%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
70
History Matches
55
0.99
Result entropy
0.91
1.42
Goal Difference Std
1.53
1.13
Stability score
8.90
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
70
Eligible Matches
55
26
Lead Matches
10
65.4%
Lead Win Rate
70.0%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.77
14
Trailing Matches
21
21.4%
Non-loss rate
4.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
70
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.40
0.34
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
0.54
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.35
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.03
Rest days
77.14
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.33
40
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.86
26
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.73
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.09
Competition & season17 signals
170
23
Matches
23
1.43
PPG
0.30
39.1%
Win rate
4.3%
26.1%
Draw rate
17.4%
34.8%
Loss rate
78.3%
60.9%
Over 1.5 rate
87.0%
26.1%
Over 2.5 rate
52.2%
17.4%
Over 3.5 rate
21.7%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
23
Current Competition Matches
23
1.43
Current Competition PPG
0.30
-0.13
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.52
6
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.59
Portability PPG Std
0.82
1.66
Portability PPG Range
1.82
45.77
Portability Score
37.83
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
70
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO167.0
PPG0.56
GF0.34
GA-0.56
PPG1.13
PPG1.04
PPG0.40
PPG1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate10.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate26.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches15
Goals Mean0.34
Goals Std0.30
Scored 1+ rate10.0%
Scored 2+ rate12.6%
Scored 3+ rate7.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.64
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.11
History Matches15
Conceded Mean-0.56
Conceded Std-0.36
Clean-sheet rate10.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.29
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.97
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.75
History Matches15
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.11
Stability score-7.77
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.64
Eligible Matches15
Lead Matches16
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate16.7%
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches15
First Half Goals For Mean0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.35
Second Half Goals For Mean0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.13
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.39
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.23
Portability PPG Range-0.16
Portability Score7.94
Rest days0.90
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match2.67
Normal Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.47
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.64
Current Team ELO167.0
Current Opponent ELO-167.0
Current ELO Difference334.0
Expected score0.45
History Matches15
Residual Mean0.14
Overperformance10.48
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Goias

W
Goias2–1CRB2 Nov · home
Pick: Goias 39% · hit
W
Ceara0–2Goias27 Oct · away
Pick: Ceara 42% · missed
D
Goias0–0Nautico Recife19 Oct · home
Pick: Goias 42% · missed
W
Goias2–1Athletic Club6 Oct · home
Pick: Goias 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ponte Preta

L
Criciuma2–0Ponte Preta30 Oct · away
Pick: Criciuma 69% · hit
D
Ponte Preta2–2Fortaleza EC24 Oct · home
Pick: Fortaleza EC 62% · missed
D
Ponte Preta1–1Atletico Goianiense16 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico Goianiense 61% · missed
L
Novorizontino5–1Ponte Preta12 Oct · away
Pick: Novorizontino 73% · hit
L
Ponte Preta0–2Juventude7 Oct · home
Pick: Juventude 65% · hit

About this match

Goias and Ponte Preta meet in Serie B on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 22:15 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Goias win 67.7%, draw 21.8%, Ponte Preta win 10.5%. The pick is Goias win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.1%. Both teams to score: 43.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.