ScoreProb
FKF Premier League Kenya Round 6 2026

GOR Mahia vs Nairobi United

GOR Mahia Home · Elo 1,624
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Nairobi United Away · Elo 1,532
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Nairobi United win
GOR Mahia win
33.4%
Draw
32.3%
Nairobi United winPick
34.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.2%
No52.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.6%
Under 2.555.4%

How much we know

GOR Mahia history60 matches
Nairobi United history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (34.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Nairobi United are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • GOR Mahia are rated 92 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,624 against 1,532. On rating alone GOR Mahia would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • GOR Mahia score more

    1.47 goals a game over 60 matches for GOR Mahia, against 1.31 over 68 for Nairobi United.

  • GOR Mahia concede fewer

    GOR Mahia concede 0.65 a game, Nairobi United 1.01.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    37% of GOR Mahia matches, against 37% for Nairobi United. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 8 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
GOR Mahia
Nairobi United@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1623.9
ELO
1531.7
60
ELO · Matches
68
1623.9
Current Team ELO
1531.7
1531.7
Current Opponent ELO
1623.9
92.22
Current ELO Difference
-92.22
0.63
Expected score
0.37
60
History Matches
68
0.10
Residual Mean
0.03
57.77
Overperformance
52.32
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.60
1.60
Goals for per game
0.80
0.60
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.80
1.30
Goals for per game
1.50
0.60
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.68
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.36
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
68
1.88
PPG
1.54
51.7%
Win rate
41.2%
33.3%
Draw rate
30.9%
15.0%
Loss rate
27.9%
63.3%
Over 1.5 rate
66.2%
36.7%
Over 2.5 rate
36.8%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
16.2%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
31
1.65
PPG
1.61
45.2%
Win rate
45.2%
29.0%
Draw rate
25.8%
25.8%
Loss rate
29.0%
64.5%
Over 1.5 rate
54.8%
45.2%
Over 2.5 rate
25.8%
16.1%
Over 3.5 rate
9.7%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
31
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.47
Goals for per game
1.31
75.0%
Scoring rate
66.2%
41.7%
BTTS rate
44.1%
1.45
Goals for per game
0.97
74.2%
Scoring rate
61.3%
41.9%
BTTS rate
32.3%
60
History Matches
68
1.47
Goals Mean
1.31
1.27
Goals Std
1.45
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
66.2%
41.7%
Scored 2+ rate
33.8%
20.0%
Scored 3+ rate
14.7%
1.45
Venue Goals Mean
0.97
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.65
Goals against per game
1.01
51.7%
Conceding rate
67.6%
0.81
Goals against per game
0.90
58.1%
Conceding rate
61.3%
60
History Matches
68
0.65
Conceded Mean
1.01
0.77
Conceded Std
0.90
10.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.5%
1.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.4%
0.81
Venue Conceded Mean
0.90
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
48.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.8%
41.9%
Clean-sheet rate
38.7%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
38.7%
48.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.8%
41.9%
Clean-sheet rate
38.7%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
38.7%
48.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
68
0.90
Result entropy
0.99
1.50
Goal Difference Std
1.65
9.71
Stability score
1.29
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
68
19
Lead Matches
22
78.9%
Lead Win Rate
86.4%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.91
12
Trailing Matches
17
50.0%
Non-loss rate
23.5%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
92.89
Rest days
161.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.60
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
31
Normal Rest History Matches
46
1.97
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
23
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.87
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.61
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.20
Portability PPG Std
0.61
0.43
Portability PPG Range
1.61
71.27
Portability Score
45.23
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO92.22
PPG0.34
GF0.16
GA-0.36
PPG0.03
PPG0.00
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate16.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate3.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches-8
Goals Mean0.16
Goals Std-0.18
Scored 1+ rate8.8%
Scored 2+ rate7.8%
Scored 3+ rate5.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.48
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.20
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean-0.36
Conceded Std-0.13
Clean-sheet rate16.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.16
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.40
History Matches-8
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.15
Stability score8.42
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.32
Eligible Matches-10
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate26.5%
Trailing Win Rate16.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-10
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.40
Portability PPG Range-1.18
Portability Score26.04
Rest days-68.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.27
Normal Rest History Matches-15
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.47
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.26
Current Team ELO92.22
Current Opponent ELO-92.22
Current ELO Difference184.4
Expected score0.26
History Matches-8
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance5.45
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

GOR Mahia

W
GOR Mahia1–0Bandari24 Oct · home
Pick: GOR Mahia 55% · hit
W
GOR Mahia4–2Murang'a SEAL13 Oct · home
Pick: GOR Mahia 57% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Nairobi United

L
Murang'a SEAL3–2Nairobi United28 Oct · away
Pick: Nairobi United 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

GOR Mahia and Nairobi United meet in FKF Premier League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:15 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: GOR Mahia win 33.4%, draw 32.3%, Nairobi United win 34.3%. The pick is Nairobi United win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.6%. Both teams to score: 47.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.