Murang'a SEAL vs Ulinzi Stars
Match result probability Model pick: Murang'a SEAL win
Murang'a SEAL winPick
37.4%
Draw
32.4%
Ulinzi Stars win
30.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes49.7%
No50.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.548.0%
Under 2.552.0%
How much we know
Murang'a SEAL history53 matches
Ulinzi Stars history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Murang'a SEAL
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why Murang'a SEAL are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,501 against 1,492. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.21 goals a game over 53 matches for Murang'a SEAL, against 1.10 over 50 for Ulinzi Stars.
-
Ulinzi Stars concede fewer
Murang'a SEAL concede 1.28 a game, Ulinzi Stars 1.04.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
43% of Murang'a SEAL matches, against 38% for Ulinzi Stars. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 31 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ulinzi Stars@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1500.6
ELO
1491.6
53
ELO · Matches
50
1500.6
Current Team ELO
1491.6
1491.6
Current Opponent ELO
1500.6
8.97
Current ELO Difference
-8.97
0.51
Expected score
0.49
53
History Matches
50
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.02
50.74
Overperformance
48.66
-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.20
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.90
1.00
Goals for per game
1.30
1.50
Goals against per game
0.90
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.77
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.28
Overall performance9 signals 90
53
Matches
50
1.30
PPG
1.20
34.0%
Win rate
30.0%
28.3%
Draw rate
30.0%
37.7%
Loss rate
40.0%
69.8%
Over 1.5 rate
64.0%
43.4%
Over 2.5 rate
38.0%
28.3%
Over 3.5 rate
14.0%
1.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
Venue performance10 signals 100
29
Matches
28
1.59
PPG
1.32
44.8%
Win rate
35.7%
24.1%
Draw rate
25.0%
31.0%
Loss rate
39.3%
62.1%
Over 1.5 rate
53.6%
41.4%
Over 2.5 rate
35.7%
20.7%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.04
29
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.21
Goals for per game
1.10
73.6%
Scoring rate
70.0%
54.7%
BTTS rate
52.0%
1.28
Goals for per game
1.00
79.3%
Scoring rate
67.9%
55.2%
BTTS rate
50.0%
53
History Matches
50
1.21
Goals Mean
1.10
1.02
Goals Std
1.10
73.6%
Scored 1+ rate
70.0%
35.8%
Scored 2+ rate
26.0%
7.5%
Scored 3+ rate
8.0%
1.28
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.28
Goals against per game
1.04
71.7%
Conceding rate
70.0%
1.10
Goals against per game
1.00
65.5%
Conceding rate
71.4%
53
History Matches
50
1.28
Conceded Mean
1.04
1.09
Conceded Std
0.89
37.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.0%
17.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.0%
1.10
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
28.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
26.4%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
28.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
26.4%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
28.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
53
History Matches
50
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.37
Goal Difference Std
1.41
0.62
Stability score
0.88
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
52
Eligible Matches
49
13
Lead Matches
9
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
55.6%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.67
18
Trailing Matches
17
38.9%
Non-loss rate
17.6%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.35
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
161.0
Rest days
161.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
31
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.39
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.20
20
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.15
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.22
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.53
Portability PPG Std
0.43
1.27
Portability PPG Range
1.00
48.61
Portability Score
54.00
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
53
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO8.97
PPG0.10
GF0.11
GA0.24
PPG0.26
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate5.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.11
Goals Std-0.08
Scored 1+ rate3.6%
Scored 2+ rate9.8%
Scored 3+ rate0.00
Venue Goals Mean0.28
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.23
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.24
Conceded Std0.19
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate11.7%
Conceded 3+ rate9.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.37
History Matches3
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.03
Stability score-0.26
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.08
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate29.1%
Lead Points Retention0.21
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate21.2%
Trailing Win Rate11.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.10
Portability PPG Range0.27
Portability Score-5.39
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.19
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Current Team ELO8.97
Current Opponent ELO-8.97
Current ELO Difference17.95
Expected score0.03
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.31
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Murang'a SEAL
W
Murang'a SEAL3–2Nairobi United28 Oct · home
Pick: Nairobi United 42% · missed L
3K2–1Murang'a SEAL25 Oct · away
Pick: 3K 47% · hit L
GOR Mahia4–2Murang'a SEAL13 Oct · away
Pick: GOR Mahia 57% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Ulinzi Stars
W
Ulinzi Stars2–1Mathare United2 Nov · home
Pick: Draw 37% · missed L
Kenya Police1–0Ulinzi Stars29 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 38% · missed D
Ulinzi Stars0–0Mara Sugar24 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 36% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Murang'a SEAL and Ulinzi Stars meet in FKF Premier League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Murang'a SEAL win 37.4%, draw 32.4%, Ulinzi Stars win 30.2%. The pick is Murang'a SEAL win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.0%. Both teams to score: 49.7%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.