ScoreProb
Segunda División Spain Round 13 2026

Granada CF vs Tenerife

Granada CF Home · Elo 1,509
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tenerife Away · Elo 1,606
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tenerife win
Granada CF win
31.8%
Draw
29.7%
Tenerife winPick
38.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.5%
No52.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.0%
Under 2.555.0%

How much we know

Granada CF history74 matches
Tenerife history69 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Tenerife are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Tenerife are rated 96 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,606 against 1,509. On rating alone Tenerife would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Tenerife score more

    1.30 goals a game over 74 matches for Granada CF, against 1.52 over 69 for Tenerife.

  • Tenerife concede fewer

    Granada CF concede 1.26 a game, Tenerife 0.78.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    45% of Granada CF matches, against 39% for Tenerife. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Granada CF
Tenerife
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1509.4
ELO
1605.8
74
ELO · Matches
69
1509.4
Current Team ELO
1605.8
1605.8
Current Opponent ELO
1509.4
-96.35
Current ELO Difference
96.35
0.36
Expected score
0.64
74
History Matches
69
0.01
Residual Mean
0.08
50.53
Overperformance
56.07
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
0.40
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
2.00
1.10
Goals for per game
2.30
0.90
Goals against per game
0.90
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.62
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.66
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.06
Overall performance9 signals
90
74
Matches
69
1.35
PPG
1.75
36.5%
Win rate
49.3%
25.7%
Draw rate
27.5%
37.8%
Loss rate
23.2%
70.3%
Over 1.5 rate
69.6%
44.6%
Over 2.5 rate
39.1%
27.0%
Over 3.5 rate
23.2%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
33
1.46
PPG
1.58
37.8%
Win rate
42.4%
32.4%
Draw rate
30.3%
29.7%
Loss rate
27.3%
70.3%
Over 1.5 rate
69.7%
40.5%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
27.0%
Over 3.5 rate
21.2%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
37
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.30
Goals for per game
1.52
70.3%
Scoring rate
72.5%
48.6%
BTTS rate
39.1%
1.35
Goals for per game
1.36
70.3%
Scoring rate
66.7%
51.4%
BTTS rate
39.4%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
74
History Matches
69
1.30
Goals Mean
1.52
1.26
Goals Std
1.35
70.3%
Scored 1+ rate
72.5%
33.8%
Scored 2+ rate
44.9%
16.2%
Scored 3+ rate
23.2%
1.35
Venue Goals Mean
1.36
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.26
Goals against per game
0.78
68.9%
Conceding rate
55.1%
1.14
Goals against per game
0.82
67.6%
Conceding rate
57.6%
0.00
Goals against per game
0.50
0.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
74
History Matches
69
1.26
Conceded Mean
0.78
1.15
Conceded Std
0.81
37.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.7%
13.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
1.4%
1.14
Venue Conceded Mean
0.82
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.1%
Clean-sheet rate
44.9%
29.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
42.4%
29.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
31.1%
Clean-sheet rate
44.9%
29.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
42.4%
29.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
31.1%
Clean-sheet rate
44.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
74
History Matches
69
0.99
Result entropy
0.95
1.72
Goal Difference Std
1.66
1.27
Stability score
5.08
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
74
Eligible Matches
69
29
Lead Matches
31
79.3%
Lead Win Rate
80.6%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.85
16
Trailing Matches
9
12.5%
Non-loss rate
44.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
74
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.25
0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.02
Rest days
76.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.33
44
Normal Rest History Matches
41
1.45
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.66
28
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.14
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.88
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
3.00
50.0%
Win rate
100.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.50
6
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.63
Portability PPG Std
0.39
1.67
Portability PPG Range
0.89
44.31
Portability Score
56.27
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
74
Clean History Matches
69
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-96.35
PPG-0.40
GF-0.22
GA0.47
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.12
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate2.2%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.22
Goals Std-0.09
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.01
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.67
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.47
Conceded Std0.34
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate16.1%
Conceded 3+ rate12.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.32
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.10
History Matches5
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score-3.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.40
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.32
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.24
Portability PPG Range0.77
Portability Score-11.97
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.33
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.20
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.73
Current Team ELO-96.35
Current Opponent ELO96.35
Current ELO Difference-192.7
Expected score-0.27
History Matches5
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.54
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Granada CF

W
Eldense0–2Granada CF1 Nov · away
Pick: Granada CF 46% · hit
W
Granada CF2–1Valladolid23 Oct · home
Pick: Granada CF 59% · hit
W
Granada CF2–0Cadiz18 Oct · home
Pick: Granada CF 51% · hit
W
Burgos0–1Granada CF12 Oct · away
Pick: Burgos 37% · missed
W
Real Sociedad II2–3Granada CF4 Oct · away
Pick: Granada CF 40% · hit

Tenerife

D
Sabadell1–1Tenerife25 Oct · away
Pick: Tenerife 35% · missed
D
Celta de Vigo II1–1Tenerife19 Oct · away
Pick: Tenerife 45% · missed
D
Tenerife1–1Girona12 Oct · home
Pick: Tenerife 61% · missed
L
Cordoba3–2Tenerife5 Oct · away
Pick: Tenerife 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Granada CF and Tenerife meet in Segunda División on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Granada CF win 31.8%, draw 29.7%, Tenerife win 38.6%. The pick is Tenerife win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.0%. Both teams to score: 47.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.