ScoreProb
Segunda División Spain Round 13 2026

Girona vs Almeria

Girona Home · Elo 1,470
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Almeria Away · Elo 1,579
Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Girona Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Almeria win
Girona win
26.9%
Draw
23.5%
Almeria winPick
49.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.7%
No44.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.9%
Under 2.550.1%

How much we know

Girona history71 matches
Almeria history79 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Almeria are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Almeria are rated 109 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,579 against 1,470. On rating alone Almeria would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Almeria score more

    1.11 goals a game over 71 matches for Girona, against 1.70 over 79 for Almeria.

  • Almeria concede fewer

    Girona concede 1.58 a game, Almeria 1.35.

  • Almeria games more often go over 2.5 goals

    52% of Girona matches, against 61% for Almeria. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Girona
Almeria
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1469.7
ELO
1579.2
71
ELO · Matches
79
1469.7
Current Team ELO
1579.2
1579.2
Current Opponent ELO
1469.7
-109.5
Current ELO Difference
109.5
0.35
Expected score
0.65
71
History Matches
79
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.04
48.61
Overperformance
53.52
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.80
1.20
Goals for per game
1.80
2.00
Goals against per game
0.40
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.40
1.30
Goals for per game
1.40
1.70
Goals against per game
0.90
10.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.86
Overall performance9 signals
90
71
Matches
79
0.97
PPG
1.57
21.1%
Win rate
45.6%
33.8%
Draw rate
20.3%
45.1%
Loss rate
34.2%
80.3%
Over 1.5 rate
81.0%
52.1%
Over 2.5 rate
60.8%
23.9%
Over 3.5 rate
35.4%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
42
1.08
PPG
1.05
25.0%
Win rate
26.2%
33.3%
Draw rate
26.2%
41.7%
Loss rate
47.6%
72.2%
Over 1.5 rate
76.2%
52.8%
Over 2.5 rate
47.6%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
31.0%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
36
History Matches
42
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.11
Goals for per game
1.70
76.1%
Scoring rate
84.8%
64.8%
BTTS rate
63.3%
1.08
Goals for per game
1.17
72.2%
Scoring rate
73.8%
58.3%
BTTS rate
57.1%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
71
History Matches
79
1.11
Goals Mean
1.70
0.93
Goals Std
1.28
76.1%
Scored 1+ rate
84.8%
25.4%
Scored 2+ rate
45.6%
7.0%
Scored 3+ rate
25.3%
1.08
Venue Goals Mean
1.17
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.58
Goals against per game
1.35
85.9%
Conceding rate
73.4%
1.56
Goals against per game
1.45
80.6%
Conceding rate
76.2%
1.50
Goals against per game
0.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
71
History Matches
79
1.58
Conceded Mean
1.35
1.15
Conceded Std
1.11
42.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.3%
21.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.7%
1.56
Venue Conceded Mean
1.45
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
14.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.6%
23.9%
Failed-to-score rate
15.2%
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
14.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.6%
23.9%
Failed-to-score rate
15.2%
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.2%
14.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
71
History Matches
79
0.96
Result entropy
0.95
1.57
Goal Difference Std
1.70
4.04
Stability score
4.56
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
71
Eligible Matches
79
20
Lead Matches
28
55.0%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.68
Lead Points Retention
0.76
24
Trailing Matches
16
20.8%
Non-loss rate
18.8%
4.2%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
71
Halftime Coverage Matches
79
0.46
First Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.92
0.94
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.84
Rest days
76.82
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
9
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.44
38
Normal Rest History Matches
40
0.82
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.28
26
Long Rest History Matches
29
1.35
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.76
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
7
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.38
Portability PPG Std
0.23
1.03
Portability PPG Range
0.60
56.98
Portability Score
68.30
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
71
Clean History Matches
79
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-109.5
PPG-0.60
GF-0.58
GA0.22
PPG-1.00
PPG0.04
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate8.8%
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate1.6%
History Matches-8
Goals Mean-0.58
Goals Std-0.35
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.20
Scored 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Goals Mean-0.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.42
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean0.22
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate8.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.17
History Matches-8
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.13
Stability score-0.53
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.66
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.16
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate2.1%
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.50
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.15
Portability PPG Range0.43
Portability Score-11.32
Rest days2.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.94
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.46
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.41
Current Team ELO-109.5
Current Opponent ELO109.5
Current ELO Difference-219.0
Expected score-0.31
History Matches-8
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.91
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Girona

L
Real Sociedad II1–0Girona31 Oct · away
Pick: Real Sociedad II 49% · hit
W
Cuarte0–2Girona27 Oct · away
Pick: Cuarte 40% · missed
W
Girona5–1Celta de Vigo II24 Oct · home
Pick: Celta de Vigo II 44% · missed
W
Girona2–0FC Andorra18 Oct · home
Pick: FC Andorra 42% · missed
D
Tenerife1–1Girona12 Oct · away
Pick: Tenerife 61% · missed

Almeria

D
Eibar1–1Almeria31 Oct · away
Pick: Almeria 41% · missed
D
Almeria2–2Oviedo24 Oct · home
Pick: Almeria 60% · missed
W
Real Sociedad II2–4Almeria17 Oct · away
Pick: Almeria 41% · hit
L
Sabadell1–0Almeria29 Aug · away
Pick: Almeria 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Girona and Almeria meet in Segunda División on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:15 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Girona. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Girona win 26.9%, draw 23.5%, Almeria win 49.6%. The pick is Almeria win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.9%. Both teams to score: 55.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.