ScoreProb
CONCACAF Nations League World League B - 3 2025

Grenada vs St. Kitts and Nevis

Grenada Home · Elo 1,468
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
St. Kitts and Nevis Away · Elo 1,468
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: St. Kitts and Nevis win
Grenada win
40.0%
Draw
19.5%
St. Kitts and Nevis winPick
40.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.4%
No44.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.571.7%
Under 2.528.3%

How much we know

Grenada history7 matches
St. Kitts and Nevis history5 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,387 matches.

Why St. Kitts and Nevis are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,468 against 1,468. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • St. Kitts and Nevis score far more

    0.57 goals a game over 7 matches for Grenada, against 1.60 over 5 for St. Kitts and Nevis.

  • Grenada concede fewer

    Grenada concede 3.00 a game, St. Kitts and Nevis 3.60.

  • St. Kitts and Nevis games more often go over 2.5 goals

    71% of Grenada matches, against 100% for St. Kitts and Nevis. The model puts this match at 72% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 16 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Grenada
St. Kitts and Nevis@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1467.8
ELO
1468.5
7
ELO · Matches
5
1467.8
Current Team ELO
1468.5
1468.5
Current Opponent ELO
1467.8
-0.73
Current ELO Difference
0.73
0.50
Expected score
0.50
7
History Matches
5
-0.27
Residual Mean
-0.30
43.02
Overperformance
44.07
-0.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.30
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.60
0.60
Goals for per game
1.60
3.00
Goals against per game
3.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
7
Matches
5
0.57
PPG
0.60
0.57
Goals for per game
1.60
3.00
Goals against per game
3.60
14.3%
Win rate
20.0%
0.57
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.05
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.50
3.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.60
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.72
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
2.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
7
Matches
5
0.57
PPG
0.60
14.3%
Win rate
20.0%
14.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
71.4%
Loss rate
80.0%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
57.1%
Over 3.5 rate
80.0%
2.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.28
Venue performance10 signals
100
2
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
History Matches
2
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.57
Goals for per game
1.60
28.6%
Scoring rate
60.0%
28.6%
BTTS rate
60.0%
0.00
Goals for per game
0.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
7
History Matches
5
0.57
Goals Mean
1.60
1.05
Goals Std
1.50
28.6%
Scored 1+ rate
60.0%
14.3%
Scored 2+ rate
60.0%
14.3%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
0.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
3.00
Goals against per game
3.60
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
3.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
7
History Matches
5
3.00
Conceded Mean
3.60
1.60
Conceded Std
1.36
71.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
100.0%
57.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
80.0%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
3.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
71.4%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
71.4%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
7
History Matches
5
0.72
Result entropy
0.46
2.26
Goal Difference Std
2.28
27.52
Stability score
54.45
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
7
Eligible Matches
5
0
Lead Matches
2
—
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.50
5
Trailing Matches
2
40.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
7
Halftime Coverage Matches
5
0.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
1.29
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.20
0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
1.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
2.40
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Normal Rest Points Per Match
181.2
Rest days
228.5
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
0
Normal Rest History Matches
0
5
Long Rest History Matches
3
0.60
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
4
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
7
Clean History Matches
5
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO-0.73
PPG-0.03
GF-1.03
GA-0.60
PPG0.00
PPG0.00
PPG-0.03
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate31.4%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches2
Goals Mean-1.03
Goals Std-0.45
Scored 1+ rate-0.31
Scored 2+ rate-0.46
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.03
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.45
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.60
Conceded Std0.25
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.29
Conceded 3+ rate-0.23
Venue Conceded Mean-1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.25
History Matches2
Result entropy0.27
Goal Difference Std-0.02
Stability score-26.93
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.02
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-2
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate40.0%
Trailing Win Rate20.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.69
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days-47.31
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Normal Rest History Matches0
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.60
Current Team ELO-0.73
Current Opponent ELO0.73
Current ELO Difference-1.46
Expected score0.00
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance-1.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Grenada

L
Grenada1–4Bonaire6 Oct · home
Pick: Grenada 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

St. Kitts and Nevis

D
Cuba2–2St. Kitts and Nevis5 Oct · away
Pick: Cuba 60% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Grenada and St. Kitts and Nevis meet in CONCACAF Nations League on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Grenada win 40.0%, draw 19.5%, St. Kitts and Nevis win 40.5%. The pick is St. Kitts and Nevis win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.7%. Both teams to score: 55.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.