ScoreProb
CONCACAF Nations League World Play-In Final 2025

Saint Martin vs El Salvador

Saint Martin Home · Elo 1,519
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
El Salvador Away · Elo 1,468
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Saint Martin win
Saint Martin winPick
43.0%
Draw
22.2%
El Salvador win
34.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.2%
No49.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.0%
Under 2.538.0%

How much we know

Saint Martin history2 matches
El Salvador history16 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 14 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 23:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,387 matches.

Why Saint Martin are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Saint Martin are rated 51 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,519 against 1,468. On rating alone Saint Martin would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Saint Martin score far more

    3.00 goals a game over 2 matches for Saint Martin, against 0.63 over 16 for El Salvador.

  • Saint Martin concede fewer

    Saint Martin concede 0.50 a game, El Salvador 1.25.

  • Saint Martin games more often go over 2.5 goals

    100% of Saint Martin matches, against 31% for El Salvador. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 6 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Saint Martin
El Salvador@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1519.5
ELO
1468.1
2
ELO · Matches
16
1519.5
Current Team ELO
1468.1
1468.1
Current Opponent ELO
1519.5
51.36
Current ELO Difference
-51.36
0.57
Expected score
0.43
2
History Matches
16
0.49
Residual Mean
-0.13
54.42
Overperformance
44.08
0.49
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
2
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
1.00
3.00
Goals for per game
0.60
0.50
Goals against per game
1.20
100.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2
Matches
10
3.00
PPG
0.80
3.00
Goals for per game
0.50
0.50
Goals against per game
1.40
100.0%
Win rate
20.0%
3.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.50
0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.67
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
0.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.51
Overall performance9 signals
90
2
Matches
16
3.00
PPG
0.88
100.0%
Win rate
18.8%
0.0%
Draw rate
31.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
56.3%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
31.3%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
12.5%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
Venue performance10 signals
100
1
Matches
11
3.00
PPG
1.09
100.0%
Win rate
27.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
27.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
45.5%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
54.5%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
36.4%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
18.2%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
1
History Matches
11
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
3.00
Goals for per game
0.63
100.0%
Scoring rate
43.8%
50.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
3.00
Goals for per game
0.64
100.0%
Scoring rate
36.4%
100.0%
BTTS rate
9.1%
2
History Matches
16
3.00
Goals Mean
0.63
0.00
Goals Std
0.86
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
43.8%
100.0%
Scored 2+ rate
12.5%
100.0%
Scored 3+ rate
6.3%
3.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.64
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.50
Goals against per game
1.25
50.0%
Conceding rate
68.8%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.27
100.0%
Conceding rate
54.5%
2
History Matches
16
0.50
Conceded Mean
1.25
0.50
Conceded Std
1.15
0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.5%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.27
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
56.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
45.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
63.6%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
56.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
45.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
63.6%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
2
History Matches
16
0.00
Result entropy
0.93
0.50
Goal Difference Std
1.62
100.0
Stability score
6.80
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
2
Eligible Matches
16
1
Lead Matches
1
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
0
Trailing Matches
6
—
Non-loss rate
33.3%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
2
Halftime Coverage Matches
16
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.19
0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
2.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
228.9
Rest days
160.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
3
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
1
Normal Rest History Matches
7
3.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.71
0
Long Rest History Matches
5
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.80
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
5
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.27
—
Portability PPG Range
0.54
—
Portability Score
64.86
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
2
Clean History Matches
16
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO51.36
PPG2.13
GF2.38
GA-0.75
PPG1.91
PPG2.00
PPG2.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate18.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.56
History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate-0.45
Failed-to-score rate-0.64
History Matches-14
Goals Mean2.38
Goals Std-0.86
Scored 1+ rate56.3%
Scored 2+ rate87.5%
Scored 3+ rate93.8%
Venue Goals Mean2.36
Recent 10 Goals Mean2.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.67
History Matches-14
Conceded Mean-0.75
Conceded Std-0.65
Clean-sheet rate18.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.38
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-0.27
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.78
History Matches-14
Result entropy-0.93
Goal Difference Std-1.12
Stability score93.20
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.86
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.01
Eligible Matches-14
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-6
Halftime Coverage Matches-14
First Half Goals For Mean0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean2.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days68.81
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match2.29
Long Rest History Matches-5
Current Team ELO51.36
Current Opponent ELO-51.36
Current ELO Difference102.7
Expected score0.15
History Matches-14
Residual Mean0.62
Overperformance10.33
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.65

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Saint Martin

W
Saint Martin6–0Bahamas6 Oct · home
Pick: Saint Martin 70% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

El Salvador

D
Martinique1–1El Salvador5 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 37% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Saint Martin and El Salvador meet in CONCACAF Nations League on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 23:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Saint Martin win 43.0%, draw 22.2%, El Salvador win 34.8%. The pick is Saint Martin win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.0%. Both teams to score: 50.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.