ScoreProb
FA Cup England 1/128-finals 2026

Guiseley AFC vs Sutton Utd

Guiseley AFC Home · Elo 1,518
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sutton Utd Away · Elo 1,530
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sutton Utd win
Guiseley AFC win
30.1%
Draw
24.1%
Sutton Utd winPick
45.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.5%
No45.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.4%
Under 2.545.6%

How much we know

Guiseley AFC history72 matches
Sutton Utd history96 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Sutton Utd are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,518 against 1,530. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Sutton Utd score more

    1.29 goals a game over 72 matches for Guiseley AFC, against 1.45 over 96 for Sutton Utd.

  • Guiseley AFC concede fewer

    Guiseley AFC concede 1.32 a game, Sutton Utd 1.61.

  • Sutton Utd games more often go over 2.5 goals

    42% of Guiseley AFC matches, against 59% for Sutton Utd. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Guiseley AFC
Sutton Utd
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1517.6
ELO
1530.4
72
ELO · Matches
96
1517.6
Current Team ELO
1530.4
1530.4
Current Opponent ELO
1517.6
-12.86
Current ELO Difference
12.86
0.48
Expected score
0.52
72
History Matches
96
0.01
Residual Mean
0.03
50.59
Overperformance
52.33
0.30
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.36
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
2.60
2.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.00
Goals against per game
0.60
80.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
2.30
2.10
Goals for per game
1.70
1.10
Goals against per game
0.70
70.0%
Win rate
70.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.10
Overall performance9 signals
90
72
Matches
96
1.33
PPG
1.30
36.1%
Win rate
33.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
30.2%
38.9%
Loss rate
36.5%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
82.3%
41.7%
Over 2.5 rate
59.4%
26.4%
Over 3.5 rate
31.3%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
42
1.44
PPG
1.24
38.2%
Win rate
31.0%
29.4%
Draw rate
31.0%
32.4%
Loss rate
38.1%
82.4%
Over 1.5 rate
73.8%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
54.8%
32.4%
Over 3.5 rate
35.7%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
34
History Matches
42
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.29
Goals for per game
1.45
70.8%
Scoring rate
80.2%
51.4%
BTTS rate
63.5%
1.53
Goals for per game
1.38
82.4%
Scoring rate
76.2%
61.8%
BTTS rate
57.1%
72
History Matches
96
1.29
Goals Mean
1.45
1.22
Goals Std
1.09
70.8%
Scored 1+ rate
80.2%
30.6%
Scored 2+ rate
43.8%
20.8%
Scored 3+ rate
15.6%
1.53
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.32
Goals against per game
1.61
76.4%
Conceding rate
77.1%
1.41
Goals against per game
1.52
76.5%
Conceding rate
73.8%
72
History Matches
96
1.32
Conceded Mean
1.61
1.10
Conceded Std
1.42
40.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.8%
6.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.9%
1.41
Venue Conceded Mean
1.52
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
23.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
19.8%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
23.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
19.8%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
23.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
72
History Matches
96
0.98
Result entropy
1.00
1.76
Goal Difference Std
1.78
1.54
Stability score
0.27
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
70
Eligible Matches
96
24
Lead Matches
25
70.8%
Lead Win Rate
72.0%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.76
25
Trailing Matches
28
24.0%
Non-loss rate
42.9%
8.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
70
Halftime Coverage Matches
96
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.61
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.97
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.84
Rest days
77.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.29
58
Normal Rest History Matches
79
1.43
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.38
9
Long Rest History Matches
9
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.22
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
8
Competition Season Count
11
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
8
0.45
Portability PPG Std
0.69
0.97
Portability PPG Range
2.00
52.88
Portability Score
41.98
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
72
Clean History Matches
96
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-12.86
PPG0.03
GF-0.16
GA-0.30
PPG0.20
PPG0.00
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-24
Clean-sheet rate0.7%
Failed-to-score rate9.4%
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-24
Goals Mean-0.16
Goals Std0.13
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate5.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.15
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.07
History Matches-24
Conceded Mean-0.30
Conceded Std-0.31
Clean-sheet rate0.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Conceded Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.05
History Matches-24
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.03
Stability score1.27
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.00
Eligible Matches-26
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.19
Trailing Win Rate0.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches-26
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.38
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-4
Portability PPG Std-0.25
Portability PPG Range-1.03
Portability Score10.90
Rest days-3.30
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.71
Normal Rest History Matches-21
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.05
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.22
Current Team ELO-12.86
Current Opponent ELO12.86
Current ELO Difference-25.72
Expected score-0.04
History Matches-24
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.74
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Guiseley AFC

W
Guiseley AFC4–1Leek Town3 Nov · home
Pick: Guiseley AFC 50% · hit
D
Redcar Athletic2–2Guiseley AFC31 Oct · away
Pick: Redcar Athletic 39% · missed
W
Rylands1–3Guiseley AFC24 Oct · away
Pick: Guiseley AFC 39% · hit
W
Guiseley AFC2–1Cleethorpes Town20 Oct · home
Pick: Cleethorpes Town 43% · missed
W
Leiston0–3Guiseley AFC17 Oct · away
Pick: Guiseley AFC 40% · hit

Sutton Utd

W
Worthing0–3Sutton Utd31 Oct · away
Pick: Sutton Utd 41% · hit
W
Sutton Utd2–0Aldershot Town28 Oct · home
Pick: Sutton Utd 51% · hit
L
Harrogate Town3–1Sutton Utd24 Oct · away
Pick: Sutton Utd 39% · missed
W
Sutton Utd1–0Truro City17 Oct · home
Pick: Sutton Utd 52% · hit
W
Sutton Utd3–2West Bromwich Albion U2113 Oct · home
Pick: Sutton Utd 58% · hit

About this match

Guiseley AFC and Sutton Utd meet in FA Cup on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Guiseley AFC win 30.1%, draw 24.1%, Sutton Utd win 45.7%. The pick is Sutton Utd win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.4%. Both teams to score: 54.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.