ScoreProb
League Two China Promotion Group - 30 2026

Guizhou Zhucheng vs Shandong Taishan II

Guizhou Zhucheng Home · Elo 1,563
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Shandong Taishan II Away · Elo 1,577
Guiyang Olympic Sports Center Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Guizhou Zhucheng win
Guizhou Zhucheng winPick
43.2%
Draw
31.2%
Shandong Taishan II win
25.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.1%
No51.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.0%
Under 2.556.0%

How much we know

Guizhou Zhucheng history55 matches
Shandong Taishan II history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 21 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 06:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Guizhou Zhucheng are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,563 against 1,577. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.38 goals a game over 55 matches for Guizhou Zhucheng, against 1.46 over 52 for Shandong Taishan II.

  • Defences are close

    Guizhou Zhucheng concede 1.00 a game, Shandong Taishan II 0.92.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    45% of Guizhou Zhucheng matches, against 40% for Shandong Taishan II. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Guizhou Zhucheng
Shandong Taishan II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1563.1
ELO
1576.5
55
ELO · Matches
52
1563.1
Current Team ELO
1576.5
1576.5
Current Opponent ELO
1563.1
-13.48
Current ELO Difference
13.48
0.48
Expected score
0.52
55
History Matches
52
0.05
Residual Mean
0.07
54.01
Overperformance
55.19
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
2.10
1.10
Goals for per game
1.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.63
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.42
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.98
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
52
1.73
PPG
1.71
52.7%
Win rate
46.2%
14.5%
Draw rate
32.7%
32.7%
Loss rate
21.2%
67.3%
Over 1.5 rate
65.4%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
40.4%
16.4%
Over 3.5 rate
26.9%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
26
2.07
PPG
1.77
63.0%
Win rate
50.0%
18.5%
Draw rate
26.9%
18.5%
Loss rate
23.1%
55.6%
Over 1.5 rate
61.5%
40.7%
Over 2.5 rate
34.6%
11.1%
Over 3.5 rate
19.2%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
27
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.38
Goals for per game
1.46
72.7%
Scoring rate
75.0%
38.2%
BTTS rate
48.1%
1.52
Goals for per game
1.31
77.8%
Scoring rate
73.1%
37.0%
BTTS rate
42.3%
1.45
Goals for per game
1.50
72.7%
Scoring rate
81.8%
27.3%
BTTS rate
54.5%
55
History Matches
52
1.38
Goals Mean
1.46
1.33
Goals Std
1.29
72.7%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
41.8%
Scored 2+ rate
38.5%
10.9%
Scored 3+ rate
21.2%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
1.31
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.00
Goals against per game
0.92
56.4%
Conceding rate
63.5%
0.59
Goals against per game
0.92
48.1%
Conceding rate
61.5%
0.77
Goals against per game
0.95
40.9%
Conceding rate
68.2%
55
History Matches
52
1.00
Conceded Mean
0.92
1.13
Conceded Std
0.90
29.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.1%
9.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.8%
0.59
Venue Conceded Mean
0.92
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
43.6%
Clean-sheet rate
36.5%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
51.9%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
59.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
43.6%
Clean-sheet rate
36.5%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
51.9%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
43.6%
Clean-sheet rate
36.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
52
0.90
Result entropy
0.96
1.87
Goal Difference Std
1.50
10.48
Stability score
4.34
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
52
15
Lead Matches
18
93.3%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
0.87
11
Trailing Matches
12
9.1%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.49
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.79
Rest days
77.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
33
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.58
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.03
20
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.85
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
22
Matches
22
1.91
PPG
1.86
59.1%
Win rate
54.5%
13.6%
Draw rate
22.7%
27.3%
Loss rate
22.7%
59.1%
Over 1.5 rate
63.6%
36.4%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
13.6%
Over 3.5 rate
31.8%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
22
Current Competition Matches
22
1.91
Current Competition PPG
1.86
0.68
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.55
4
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.16
Portability PPG Std
0.13
0.38
Portability PPG Range
0.26
75.56
Portability Score
79.14
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-13.48
PPG0.02
GF-0.08
GA0.08
PPG0.05
PPG0.30
PPG0.40
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate7.1%
Failed-to-score rate2.3%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate13.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches3
Goals Mean-0.08
Goals Std0.03
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate3.4%
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean0.21
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.16
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.08
Conceded Std0.23
Clean-sheet rate7.1%
Conceded 2+ rate6.0%
Conceded 3+ rate5.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.69
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std0.37
Stability score6.15
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.44
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate10.0%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.41
Trailing Win Rate9.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.05
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.14
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.03
Portability PPG Range0.12
Portability Score-3.57
Rest days-1.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.46
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.60
Current Team ELO-13.48
Current Opponent ELO13.48
Current ELO Difference-26.97
Expected score-0.04
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Guizhou Zhucheng

D
Shanghai Port II0–0Guizhou Zhucheng1 Nov · away
Pick: Shanghai Port II 37% · missed
W
Guizhou Zhucheng1–0Xi'an Ronghai24 Oct · home
Pick: Guizhou Zhucheng 47% · hit
L
Dalian Kewei2–1Guizhou Zhucheng17 Oct · away
Pick: Dalian Kewei 34% · hit
W
Guizhou Zhucheng2–1Shanghai Port II6 Oct · home
Pick: Guizhou Zhucheng 46% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Shandong Taishan II

W
Shandong Taishan II3–2Shenzhen 20281 Nov · home
Pick: Shandong Taishan II 39% · hit
D
Langfang Glory City0–0Shandong Taishan II17 Oct · away
Pick: Shandong Taishan II 35% · missed
W
Shenzhen 20280–2Shandong Taishan II6 Oct · away
Pick: Shenzhen 2028 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Guizhou Zhucheng and Shandong Taishan II meet in League Two on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 06:30 UTC. The match is played at Guiyang Olympic Sports Center. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Guizhou Zhucheng win 43.2%, draw 31.2%, Shandong Taishan II win 25.6%. The pick is Guizhou Zhucheng win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.0%. Both teams to score: 48.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.