ScoreProb
League Two China Promotion Group - 30 2026

Jiangxi Liansheng vs Xi'an Ronghai

Jiangxi Liansheng Home · Elo 1,535
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Xi'an Ronghai Away · Elo 1,538
Ruichang Sports Park Stadium, Jiujiang Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Jiangxi Liansheng win
Jiangxi Liansheng winPick
38.5%
Draw
31.7%
Xi'an Ronghai win
29.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.5%
No55.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.539.1%
Under 2.560.9%

How much we know

Jiangxi Liansheng history57 matches
Xi'an Ronghai history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 21 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 06:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Jiangxi Liansheng are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,535 against 1,538. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Jiangxi Liansheng score more

    1.33 goals a game over 57 matches for Jiangxi Liansheng, against 1.09 over 56 for Xi'an Ronghai.

  • Jiangxi Liansheng concede fewer

    Jiangxi Liansheng concede 0.89 a game, Xi'an Ronghai 1.09.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    30% of Jiangxi Liansheng matches, against 32% for Xi'an Ronghai. The model puts this match at 39% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Jiangxi Liansheng
Xi'an Ronghai
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1535.1
ELO
1538.2
57
ELO · Matches
56
1535.1
Current Team ELO
1538.2
1538.2
Current Opponent ELO
1535.1
-3.15
Current ELO Difference
3.15
0.50
Expected score
0.50
57
History Matches
56
0.03
Residual Mean
0.04
52.28
Overperformance
52.79
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.60
Goals against per game
0.40
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
2.20
1.10
Goals for per game
1.30
0.80
Goals against per game
0.40
50.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.40
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.49
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.14
Overall performance9 signals
90
57
Matches
56
1.63
PPG
1.43
47.4%
Win rate
37.5%
21.1%
Draw rate
30.4%
31.6%
Loss rate
32.1%
68.4%
Over 1.5 rate
67.9%
29.8%
Over 2.5 rate
32.1%
14.0%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
27
1.45
PPG
1.19
41.4%
Win rate
29.6%
20.7%
Draw rate
29.6%
37.9%
Loss rate
40.7%
65.5%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
31.0%
Over 2.5 rate
29.6%
17.2%
Over 3.5 rate
11.1%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
29
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.33
Goals for per game
1.09
75.4%
Scoring rate
57.1%
36.8%
BTTS rate
33.9%
1.17
Goals for per game
0.81
69.0%
Scoring rate
51.9%
37.9%
BTTS rate
37.0%
1.14
Goals for per game
1.32
72.7%
Scoring rate
68.2%
40.9%
BTTS rate
31.8%
57
History Matches
56
1.33
Goals Mean
1.09
1.33
Goals Std
1.15
75.4%
Scored 1+ rate
57.1%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
39.3%
10.5%
Scored 3+ rate
7.1%
1.17
Venue Goals Mean
0.81
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.89
Goals against per game
1.09
54.4%
Conceding rate
60.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.30
58.6%
Conceding rate
70.4%
0.86
Goals against per game
0.77
59.1%
Conceding rate
50.0%
57
History Matches
56
0.89
Conceded Mean
1.09
1.02
Conceded Std
1.34
26.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.0%
5.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.30
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
45.6%
Clean-sheet rate
39.3%
24.6%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
41.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
31.0%
Failed-to-score rate
48.1%
40.9%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
45.6%
Clean-sheet rate
39.3%
24.6%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
41.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
31.0%
Failed-to-score rate
48.1%
45.6%
Clean-sheet rate
39.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
57
History Matches
56
0.95
Result entropy
1.00
1.83
Goal Difference Std
1.89
4.79
Stability score
0.37
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
56
19
Lead Matches
19
94.7%
Lead Win Rate
73.7%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
0.82
14
Trailing Matches
16
14.3%
Non-loss rate
18.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.68
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.79
Rest days
77.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
38
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.76
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
16
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.28
Competition & season17 signals
170
22
Matches
22
1.59
PPG
1.82
45.5%
Win rate
54.5%
22.7%
Draw rate
18.2%
31.8%
Loss rate
27.3%
68.2%
Over 1.5 rate
68.2%
31.8%
Over 2.5 rate
36.4%
9.1%
Over 3.5 rate
9.1%
1.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
22
Current Competition Matches
22
1.59
Current Competition PPG
1.82
0.27
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.55
4
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.28
0.41
Portability PPG Range
0.65
73.14
Portability Score
64.24
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
57
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-3.15
PPG0.20
GF0.24
GA-0.19
PPG-0.23
PPG0.26
PPG0.00
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate6.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate11.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.24
Goals Std0.18
Scored 1+ rate18.3%
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate3.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.36
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.20
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.19
Conceded Std-0.32
Clean-sheet rate6.3%
Conceded 2+ rate1.3%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.38
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.06
Stability score4.42
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.13
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate21.1%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.23
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.27
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.09
Portability PPG Range-0.24
Portability Score8.90
Rest days-1.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.26
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.03
Current Team ELO-3.15
Current Opponent ELO3.15
Current ELO Difference-6.30
Expected score-0.01
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.51
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Jiangxi Liansheng

L
Dalian Kewei2–1Jiangxi Liansheng1 Nov · away
Pick: Dalian Kewei 34% · hit
D
Jiangxi Liansheng0–0Shanghai Port II17 Oct · home
Pick: Jiangxi Liansheng 40% · missed
L
Xi'an Ronghai2–1Jiangxi Liansheng12 Oct · away
Pick: Xi'an Ronghai 42% · hit
L
Jiangxi Liansheng0–1Dalian Kewei7 Oct · home
Pick: Jiangxi Liansheng 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Xi'an Ronghai

D
Xi'an Ronghai1–1Langfang Glory City1 Nov · home
Pick: Xi'an Ronghai 47% · missed
L
Guizhou Zhucheng1–0Xi'an Ronghai24 Oct · away
Pick: Guizhou Zhucheng 47% · hit
W
Xi'an Ronghai1–0Shenzhen 202817 Oct · home
Pick: Xi'an Ronghai 40% · hit
W
Xi'an Ronghai2–1Jiangxi Liansheng12 Oct · home
Pick: Xi'an Ronghai 42% · hit
D
Langfang Glory City0–0Xi'an Ronghai6 Oct · away
Pick: Langfang Glory City 37% · missed

About this match

Jiangxi Liansheng and Xi'an Ronghai meet in League Two on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 06:30 UTC. The match is played at Ruichang Sports Park Stadium, Jiujiang. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Jiangxi Liansheng win 38.5%, draw 31.7%, Xi'an Ronghai win 29.7%. The pick is Jiangxi Liansheng win. Over 2.5 goals: 39.1%. Both teams to score: 44.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.