ScoreProb
First Amateur Division Belgium ACFF - 12 2026

Habay-la-Neuve vs Union Saint-Gilloise II

Habay-la-Neuve Home · Elo 1,527
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Union Saint-Gilloise II Away · Elo 1,507
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Habay-la-Neuve win
Habay-la-Neuve winPick
40.6%
Draw
23.9%
Union Saint-Gilloise II win
35.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.9%
No45.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.0%
Under 2.543.0%

How much we know

Habay-la-Neuve history44 matches
Union Saint-Gilloise II history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Habay-la-Neuve are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,527 against 1,507. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Union Saint-Gilloise II score more

    1.45 goals a game over 44 matches for Habay-la-Neuve, against 1.64 over 45 for Union Saint-Gilloise II.

  • Defences are close

    Habay-la-Neuve concede 1.34 a game, Union Saint-Gilloise II 1.47.

  • Union Saint-Gilloise II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    45% of Habay-la-Neuve matches, against 62% for Union Saint-Gilloise II. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Habay-la-Neuve
Union Saint-Gilloise II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1526.9
ELO
1507.4
44
ELO · Matches
45
1526.9
Current Team ELO
1507.4
1507.4
Current Opponent ELO
1526.9
19.51
Current ELO Difference
-19.51
0.53
Expected score
0.47
44
History Matches
45
0.03
Residual Mean
0.01
52.37
Overperformance
50.73
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
2.00
0.40
Goals for per game
1.40
2.20
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
2.00
0.90
Goals for per game
1.80
1.50
Goals against per game
0.80
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.60
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.69
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.10
Overall performance9 signals
90
44
Matches
45
1.55
PPG
1.42
43.2%
Win rate
42.2%
25.0%
Draw rate
15.6%
31.8%
Loss rate
42.2%
70.5%
Over 1.5 rate
82.2%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
62.2%
31.8%
Over 3.5 rate
37.8%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.14
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
22
1.83
PPG
1.41
52.2%
Win rate
40.9%
26.1%
Draw rate
18.2%
21.7%
Loss rate
40.9%
65.2%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
43.5%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
26.1%
Over 3.5 rate
31.8%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
23
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.45
Goals for per game
1.64
68.2%
Scoring rate
75.6%
45.5%
BTTS rate
55.6%
1.57
Goals for per game
1.36
73.9%
Scoring rate
72.7%
43.5%
BTTS rate
54.5%
44
History Matches
45
1.45
Goals Mean
1.64
1.42
Goals Std
1.37
68.2%
Scored 1+ rate
75.6%
43.2%
Scored 2+ rate
51.1%
20.5%
Scored 3+ rate
22.2%
1.57
Venue Goals Mean
1.36
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.34
Goals against per game
1.47
65.9%
Conceding rate
77.8%
1.09
Goals against per game
1.32
56.5%
Conceding rate
77.3%
44
History Matches
45
1.34
Conceded Mean
1.47
1.33
Conceded Std
1.31
40.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
15.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.2%
1.09
Venue Conceded Mean
1.32
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
34.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
31.8%
Failed-to-score rate
24.4%
43.5%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
34.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
31.8%
Failed-to-score rate
24.4%
43.5%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
34.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
44
History Matches
45
0.98
Result entropy
0.93
1.81
Goal Difference Std
2.14
2.28
Stability score
7.38
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
34
Eligible Matches
43
9
Lead Matches
12
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.81
8
Trailing Matches
15
25.0%
Non-loss rate
13.3%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
34
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
0.94
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.02
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
182.0
Rest days
182.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
23
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.30
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.57
20
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.85
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.08
Portability PPG Std
0.08
0.16
Portability PPG Range
0.16
86.02
Portability Score
85.95
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
44
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO19.51
PPG0.12
GF-0.19
GA-0.13
PPG0.42
PPG-2.00
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate11.9%
Failed-to-score rate7.4%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate20.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.19
Goals Std0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.66
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.13
Conceded Std0.02
Clean-sheet rate11.9%
Conceded 2+ rate7.6%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.23
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.41
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.33
Stability score-5.10
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.41
Eligible Matches-9
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate25.0%
Lead Points Retention0.19
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate11.7%
Trailing Win Rate5.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches-9
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range0.00
Portability Score0.07
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.26
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.52
Current Team ELO19.51
Current Opponent ELO-19.51
Current ELO Difference39.02
Expected score0.06
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.64
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.27

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Habay-la-Neuve

L
Olympic Charleroi1–0Habay-la-Neuve31 Oct · away
Pick: Olympic Charleroi 46% · hit
W
Habay-la-Neuve1–0Meux25 Oct · home
Pick: Meux 42% · missed
L
SK Beveren3–0Habay-la-Neuve16 Oct · away
Pick: SK Beveren 71% · hit
L
Rochefort4–2Habay-la-Neuve29 Aug · away
Pick: Rochefort 51% · hit
L
Habay-la-Neuve1–2RWDM26 Aug · home
Pick: RWDM 40% · hit

Union Saint-Gilloise II

W
Union Saint-Gilloise II4–3Albert Quévy-Mons31 Oct · home
Pick: Albert Quévy-Mons 49% · missed
D
Onhaye0–0Union Saint-Gilloise II25 Oct · away
Pick: Onhaye 51% · missed
W
Union Saint-Gilloise II2–0Sporting Charleroi II17 Oct · home
Pick: Sporting Charleroi II 48% · missed
L
Meux2–1Union Saint-Gilloise II29 Aug · away
Pick: Meux 45% · hit
L
Union Saint-Gilloise II0–2Rochefort26 Aug · home
Pick: Rochefort 41% · hit

About this match

Habay-la-Neuve and Union Saint-Gilloise II meet in First Amateur Division on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Habay-la-Neuve win 40.6%, draw 23.9%, Union Saint-Gilloise II win 35.5%. The pick is Habay-la-Neuve win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.0%. Both teams to score: 54.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.