ScoreProb
First Amateur Division Belgium ACFF - 12 2026

Onhaye vs Flénu

Onhaye Home · Elo 1,603
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Flénu Away · Elo 1,550
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Onhaye win
Onhaye winPick
61.7%
Draw
18.7%
Flénu win
19.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.9%
No41.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.3%
Under 2.536.7%

How much we know

Onhaye history45 matches
Flénu history37 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (61.7%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Onhaye are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Onhaye are rated 52 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,603 against 1,550. On rating alone Onhaye would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Flénu score more

    1.71 goals a game over 45 matches for Onhaye, against 2.14 over 37 for Flénu.

  • Onhaye concede fewer

    Onhaye concede 1.24 a game, Flénu 1.41.

  • Flénu games more often go over 2.5 goals

    53% of Onhaye matches, against 78% for Flénu. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 2 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Onhaye
Flénu
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1602.8
ELO
1550.5
45
ELO · Matches
37
1602.8
Current Team ELO
1550.5
1550.5
Current Opponent ELO
1602.8
52.33
Current ELO Difference
-52.33
0.57
Expected score
0.43
45
History Matches
37
0.12
Residual Mean
0.07
58.21
Overperformance
54.81
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
1.80
2.60
Goals for per game
2.80
0.40
Goals against per game
2.40
100.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.60
2.00
Goals for per game
2.30
0.80
Goals against per game
1.90
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.18
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.55
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.29
Overall performance9 signals
90
45
Matches
37
1.91
PPG
1.73
55.6%
Win rate
51.4%
24.4%
Draw rate
18.9%
20.0%
Loss rate
29.7%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
86.5%
53.3%
Over 2.5 rate
78.4%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
45.9%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
17
1.96
PPG
1.76
58.3%
Win rate
52.9%
20.8%
Draw rate
17.6%
20.8%
Loss rate
29.4%
70.8%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
58.3%
Over 2.5 rate
64.7%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
29.4%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
24
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.71
Goals for per game
2.14
84.4%
Scoring rate
83.8%
55.6%
BTTS rate
70.3%
1.79
Goals for per game
1.88
79.2%
Scoring rate
82.4%
50.0%
BTTS rate
64.7%
45
History Matches
37
1.71
Goals Mean
2.14
1.11
Goals Std
1.49
84.4%
Scored 1+ rate
83.8%
60.0%
Scored 2+ rate
67.6%
17.8%
Scored 3+ rate
32.4%
1.79
Venue Goals Mean
1.88
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.24
Goals against per game
1.41
64.4%
Conceding rate
75.7%
1.42
Goals against per game
1.18
58.3%
Conceding rate
70.6%
45
History Matches
37
1.24
Conceded Mean
1.41
1.21
Conceded Std
1.20
37.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.5%
15.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.2%
1.42
Venue Conceded Mean
1.18
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
35.6%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
15.6%
Failed-to-score rate
16.2%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
17.6%
35.6%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
15.6%
Failed-to-score rate
16.2%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
17.6%
35.6%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
45
History Matches
37
0.90
Result entropy
0.93
1.51
Goal Difference Std
1.95
9.63
Stability score
7.35
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
26
Eligible Matches
17
9
Lead Matches
7
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.81
6
Trailing Matches
4
50.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
33.3%
Trailing Win Rate
25.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
26
Halftime Coverage Matches
17
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
1.06
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
1.23
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
98.85
Rest days
98.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
25
Normal Rest History Matches
21
1.88
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.29
19
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.89
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.07
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.13
Portability PPG Std
—
0.25
Portability PPG Range
—
79.84
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
45
Clean History Matches
37
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO52.33
PPG0.18
GF-0.42
GA-0.16
PPG0.19
PPG1.20
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate11.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate12.3%
Failed-to-score rate3.2%
History Matches8
Goals Mean-0.42
Goals Std-0.38
Scored 1+ rate0.7%
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Goals Mean-0.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.37
History Matches8
Conceded Mean-0.16
Conceded Std0.02
Clean-sheet rate11.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean0.24
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.35
History Matches8
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.44
Stability score2.28
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.96
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate28.6%
Lead Points Retention0.19
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate25.0%
Trailing Win Rate8.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean-0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.41
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.83
Current Team ELO52.33
Current Opponent ELO-52.33
Current ELO Difference104.7
Expected score0.15
History Matches8
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.39
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Onhaye

L
Tubize2–1Onhaye31 Oct · away
Pick: Tubize 54% · hit
D
Onhaye0–0Union Saint-Gilloise II25 Oct · home
Pick: Onhaye 51% · missed
L
Onhaye2–4Sporting Charleroi II4 Oct · home
Pick: Onhaye 44% · missed
L
Onhaye0–2Olympic Charleroi30 Aug · home
Pick: Onhaye 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Flénu

D
Flénu1–1Rochefort31 Oct · home
Pick: Rochefort 46% · missed
L
Flénu0–4Tubize25 Oct · home
Pick: Tubize 50% · hit
L
Standard Liège II1–0Flénu18 Oct · away
Pick: Standard Liège II 43% · hit
L
RWDM3–0Flénu29 Aug · away
Pick: RWDM 58% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Onhaye and Flénu meet in First Amateur Division on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Onhaye win 61.7%, draw 18.7%, Flénu win 19.6%. The pick is Onhaye win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.3%. Both teams to score: 58.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.