ScoreProb
U19 Bundesliga Germany Preliminary 2026

Hallescher FC U19 vs Hertha BSC U19

Hallescher FC U19 Home · Elo 1,457
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hertha BSC U19 Away · Elo 1,539
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hertha BSC U19 win
Hallescher FC U19 win
24.8%
Draw
18.7%
Hertha BSC U19 winPick
56.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes68.2%
No31.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.576.8%
Under 2.523.2%

How much we know

Hallescher FC U19 history41 matches
Hertha BSC U19 history42 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Hertha BSC U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Hertha BSC U19 are rated 82 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,539 against 1,457. On rating alone Hertha BSC U19 would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Hertha BSC U19 score more

    1.88 goals a game over 41 matches for Hallescher FC U19, against 2.50 over 42 for Hertha BSC U19.

  • Hertha BSC U19 concede fewer

    Hallescher FC U19 concede 2.51 a game, Hertha BSC U19 1.98.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    80% of Hallescher FC U19 matches, against 79% for Hertha BSC U19. The model puts this match at 77% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hallescher FC U19
Hertha BSC U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1457.4
ELO
1539.1
41
ELO · Matches
42
1457.4
Current Team ELO
1539.1
1539.1
Current Opponent ELO
1457.4
-81.69
Current ELO Difference
81.69
0.38
Expected score
0.62
41
History Matches
42
-0.06
Residual Mean
0.05
45.90
Overperformance
53.13
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.40
1.80
Goals for per game
3.00
2.00
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
2.10
1.60
Goals for per game
3.20
2.00
Goals against per game
1.50
20.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.20
0.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.04
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.24
Overall performance9 signals
90
41
Matches
42
1.10
PPG
1.64
31.7%
Win rate
52.4%
14.6%
Draw rate
7.1%
53.7%
Loss rate
40.5%
92.7%
Over 1.5 rate
88.1%
80.5%
Over 2.5 rate
78.6%
61.0%
Over 3.5 rate
61.9%
3.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.81
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
21
1.17
PPG
1.86
38.9%
Win rate
57.1%
0.0%
Draw rate
14.3%
61.1%
Loss rate
28.6%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
90.5%
88.9%
Over 2.5 rate
76.2%
55.6%
Over 3.5 rate
52.4%
3.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.75
18
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.88
Goals for per game
2.50
75.6%
Scoring rate
83.3%
65.9%
BTTS rate
71.4%
2.33
Goals for per game
2.48
72.2%
Scoring rate
85.7%
61.1%
BTTS rate
71.4%
1.67
Goals for per game
3.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
41
History Matches
42
1.88
Goals Mean
2.50
1.89
Goals Std
2.04
75.6%
Scored 1+ rate
83.3%
46.3%
Scored 2+ rate
64.3%
24.4%
Scored 3+ rate
40.5%
2.33
Venue Goals Mean
2.48
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.51
Goals against per game
1.98
87.8%
Conceding rate
83.3%
2.28
Goals against per game
1.76
88.9%
Conceding rate
76.2%
1.33
Goals against per game
0.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
41
History Matches
42
2.51
Conceded Mean
1.98
1.84
Conceded Std
1.65
70.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
39.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
31.0%
2.28
Venue Conceded Mean
1.76
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
12.2%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
24.4%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
12.2%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
24.4%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
12.2%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
41
History Matches
42
0.89
Result entropy
0.81
3.10
Goal Difference Std
2.81
10.84
Stability score
18.69
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
41
Eligible Matches
41
15
Lead Matches
16
73.3%
Lead Win Rate
93.8%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.94
17
Trailing Matches
12
17.6%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
41
Halftime Coverage Matches
41
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
1.22
1.07
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.32
1.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.98
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.13
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
17
Normal Rest History Matches
22
1.53
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.68
22
Long Rest History Matches
19
0.73
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.63
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
2.00
66.7%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.87
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.67
4
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.44
Portability PPG Std
0.49
1.08
Portability PPG Range
1.10
52.91
Portability Score
50.28
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
41
Clean History Matches
42
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-81.69
PPG-0.55
GF-0.62
GA0.54
PPG0.00
PPG-0.69
PPG-1.20
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate7.7%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate13.5%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.62
Goals Std-0.15
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.18
Scored 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Goals Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.55
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.54
Conceded Std0.18
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate20.7%
Conceded 3+ rate8.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.52
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.16
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std0.28
Stability score-7.84
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.12
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.20
Lead Points Retention-0.16
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate17.6%
Trailing Win Rate5.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.46
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.33
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.02
Portability Score2.63
Rest days-2.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.15
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.90
Current Team ELO-81.69
Current Opponent ELO81.69
Current ELO Difference-163.4
Expected score-0.23
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-7.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hallescher FC U19

D
Energie Cottbus U193–3Hallescher FC U1931 Oct · away
Pick: Energie Cottbus U19 61% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Hertha BSC U19

W
Hertha BSC U194–1Carl Zeiss Jena U191 Nov · home
Pick: Hertha BSC U19 57% · hit
W
Chemnitzer FC U190–5Hertha BSC U1927 Oct · away
Pick: Hertha BSC U19 54% · hit
W
Hertha BSC U192–0Eintracht Braunsch U1917 Oct · home
Pick: Hertha BSC U19 72% · hit
W
Paderborn U191–4Hertha BSC U1930 Aug · away
Pick: Paderborn U19 57% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Hallescher FC U19 and Hertha BSC U19 meet in U19 Bundesliga on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Hallescher FC U19 win 24.8%, draw 18.7%, Hertha BSC U19 win 56.5%. The pick is Hertha BSC U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 76.8%. Both teams to score: 68.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.