ScoreProb
Oberliga - Hamburg Germany Hamburg - 15 2026

Harksheide vs HT16

Harksheide Home · Elo 1,433
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
HT16 Away · Elo 1,538
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: HT16 win
Harksheide win
33.8%
Draw
16.6%
HT16 winPick
49.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes67.3%
No32.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.577.4%
Under 2.522.6%

How much we know

Harksheide history51 matches
HT16 history38 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 18:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why HT16 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • HT16 are rated 105 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,538 against 1,433. On rating alone HT16 would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • HT16 score more

    1.71 goals a game over 51 matches for Harksheide, against 2.47 over 38 for HT16.

  • HT16 concede fewer

    Harksheide concede 2.80 a game, HT16 2.50.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    80% of Harksheide matches, against 82% for HT16. The model puts this match at 77% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Harksheide
HT16
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1433.1
ELO
1538.0
51
ELO · Matches
38
1433.1
Current Team ELO
1538.0
1538.0
Current Opponent ELO
1433.1
-104.9
Current ELO Difference
104.9
0.35
Expected score
0.65
51
History Matches
38
-0.07
Residual Mean
0.05
44.96
Overperformance
53.25
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
2.80
2.80
Goals against per game
2.40
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.90
1.90
Goals for per game
3.50
2.00
Goals against per game
2.70
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.50
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.91
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.70
1.61
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.42
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.23
Overall performance9 signals
90
51
Matches
38
1.02
PPG
1.61
29.4%
Win rate
50.0%
13.7%
Draw rate
10.5%
56.9%
Loss rate
39.5%
94.1%
Over 1.5 rate
92.1%
80.4%
Over 2.5 rate
81.6%
60.8%
Over 3.5 rate
68.4%
3.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.77
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
19
1.33
PPG
1.89
37.5%
Win rate
57.9%
20.8%
Draw rate
15.8%
41.7%
Loss rate
26.3%
95.8%
Over 1.5 rate
89.5%
70.8%
Over 2.5 rate
78.9%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
63.2%
2.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.32
24
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.71
Goals for per game
2.47
84.3%
Scoring rate
92.1%
76.5%
BTTS rate
73.7%
1.88
Goals for per game
2.68
91.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
83.3%
BTTS rate
68.4%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.25
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
51
History Matches
38
1.71
Goals Mean
2.47
1.49
Goals Std
1.79
84.3%
Scored 1+ rate
92.1%
41.2%
Scored 2+ rate
60.5%
21.6%
Scored 3+ rate
39.5%
1.88
Venue Goals Mean
2.68
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.80
Goals against per game
2.50
90.2%
Conceding rate
81.6%
2.08
Goals against per game
2.00
91.7%
Conceding rate
68.4%
2.25
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
51
History Matches
38
2.80
Conceded Mean
2.50
2.28
Conceded Std
1.90
64.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
65.8%
45.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
52.6%
2.08
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
9.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.4%
15.7%
Failed-to-score rate
7.9%
8.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
9.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.4%
15.7%
Failed-to-score rate
7.9%
8.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
9.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
51
History Matches
38
0.87
Result entropy
0.87
3.01
Goal Difference Std
2.77
13.21
Stability score
13.48
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
51
Eligible Matches
38
7
Lead Matches
15
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
73.3%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.78
26
Trailing Matches
13
7.7%
Non-loss rate
23.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
23.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
38
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
1.11
1.39
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.05
1.06
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.37
1.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.45
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
76.33
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
28
Normal Rest History Matches
20
1.04
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.65
21
Long Rest History Matches
16
0.95
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.75
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.25
PPG
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
0.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.59
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.25
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.25
4
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.42
Portability PPG Std
0.06
1.02
Portability PPG Range
0.12
54.42
Portability Score
89.47
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
51
Clean History Matches
38
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-104.9
PPG-0.59
GF-0.77
GA0.30
PPG-1.25
PPG-0.56
PPG-1.60
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate7.8%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Failed-to-score rate8.3%
History Matches13
Goals Mean-0.77
Goals Std-0.30
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.19
Scored 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Goals Mean-0.81
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.77
History Matches13
Conceded Mean0.30
Conceded Std0.38
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean0.08
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.19
History Matches13
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.24
Stability score-0.28
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.20
Eligible Matches13
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate12.4%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches13
Non-loss rate-0.15
Trailing Win Rate-0.23
Halftime Coverage Matches13
First Half Goals For Mean-0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean0.34
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.31
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.50
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.36
Portability PPG Range0.91
Portability Score-35.05
Rest days0.71
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.61
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.80
Current Team ELO-104.9
Current Opponent ELO104.9
Current ELO Difference-209.9
Expected score-0.29
History Matches13
Residual Mean-0.12
Overperformance-8.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Harksheide

L
Niendorfer TSV2–1Harksheide1 Nov · away
Pick: Niendorfer TSV 65% · hit
L
Harksheide0–2Paloma23 Oct · home
Pick: Paloma 65% · hit
D
Teutonia Ottensen0–0Harksheide30 Aug · away
Pick: Teutonia Ottensen 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

HT16

L
HT161–2Altona 9331 Oct · home
Pick: HT16 52% · missed
W
Buchholz3–4HT1625 Oct · away
Pick: Buchholz 46% · missed
D
HT162–2ETSV Hamburg17 Oct · home
Pick: ETSV Hamburg 57% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Harksheide and HT16 meet in Oberliga - Hamburg on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 18:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Harksheide win 33.8%, draw 16.6%, HT16 win 49.6%. The pick is HT16 win. Over 2.5 goals: 77.4%. Both teams to score: 67.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.