ScoreProb
Oberliga - Hamburg Germany Hamburg - 15 2026

HEBC vs Tus Dassendorf

HEBC Home · Elo 1,493
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tus Dassendorf Away · Elo 1,641
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tus Dassendorf win
HEBC win
19.3%
Draw
13.4%
Tus Dassendorf winPick
67.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.7%
No40.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.4%
Under 2.530.6%

How much we know

HEBC history50 matches
Tus Dassendorf history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 0 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 09:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (67.3%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Tus Dassendorf are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Tus Dassendorf are rated 148 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,641 against 1,493. On rating alone Tus Dassendorf would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.

  • Tus Dassendorf score far more

    1.62 goals a game over 50 matches for HEBC, against 2.92 over 52 for Tus Dassendorf.

  • Tus Dassendorf concede fewer

    HEBC concede 1.66 a game, Tus Dassendorf 1.08.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    72% of HEBC matches, against 73% for Tus Dassendorf. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
HEBC
Tus Dassendorf
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1493.2
ELO
1640.8
50
ELO · Matches
52
1493.2
Current Team ELO
1640.8
1640.8
Current Opponent ELO
1493.2
-147.7
Current ELO Difference
147.7
0.30
Expected score
0.70
50
History Matches
52
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.13
49.25
Overperformance
59.24
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.00
1.20
Goals for per game
3.00
1.60
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
2.50
1.70
Goals for per game
2.70
1.80
Goals against per game
0.90
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.70
1.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.42
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.54
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
2.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.89
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
52
1.42
PPG
2.25
42.0%
Win rate
71.2%
16.0%
Draw rate
11.5%
42.0%
Loss rate
17.3%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
92.3%
72.0%
Over 2.5 rate
73.1%
44.0%
Over 3.5 rate
55.8%
2.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.66
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
27
1.46
PPG
2.04
41.7%
Win rate
63.0%
20.8%
Draw rate
14.8%
37.5%
Loss rate
22.2%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
92.6%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
74.1%
45.8%
Over 3.5 rate
63.0%
2.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.12
24
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.62
Goals for per game
2.92
72.0%
Scoring rate
90.4%
54.0%
BTTS rate
55.8%
1.79
Goals for per game
2.93
66.7%
Scoring rate
85.2%
54.2%
BTTS rate
59.3%
1.25
Goals for per game
3.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
50
History Matches
52
1.62
Goals Mean
2.92
1.52
Goals Std
2.05
72.0%
Scored 1+ rate
90.4%
46.0%
Scored 2+ rate
76.9%
24.0%
Scored 3+ rate
50.0%
1.79
Venue Goals Mean
2.93
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.66
Goals against per game
1.08
74.0%
Conceding rate
63.5%
1.46
Goals against per game
1.41
75.0%
Conceding rate
70.4%
1.50
Goals against per game
0.50
75.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
50
History Matches
52
1.66
Conceded Mean
1.08
1.41
Conceded Std
1.30
48.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.0%
28.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.7%
1.46
Venue Conceded Mean
1.41
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.5%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
9.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
14.8%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
26.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.5%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
9.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
14.8%
26.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
52
0.93
Result entropy
0.72
2.31
Goal Difference Std
2.66
6.98
Stability score
27.64
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
52
14
Lead Matches
35
78.6%
Lead Win Rate
91.4%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.93
20
Trailing Matches
9
30.0%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
1.58
0.72
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
0.94
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.35
0.94
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.68
Rest days
78.68
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
22
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.22
24
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.50
PPG
2.50
50.0%
Win rate
75.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.24
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.50
Current Competition PPG
2.50
-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.00
3
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.35
Portability PPG Std
1.08
0.84
Portability PPG Range
2.64
59.07
Portability Score
31.70
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-147.7
PPG-0.83
GF-1.30
GA0.58
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.58
PPG-0.80
PPG-1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate18.4%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate18.5%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-1.30
Goals Std-0.52
Scored 1+ rate-0.18
Scored 2+ rate-0.31
Scored 3+ rate-0.26
Venue Goals Mean-1.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.07
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.58
Conceded Std0.11
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate23.0%
Conceded 3+ rate20.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.71
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.21
Goal Difference Std-0.35
Stability score-20.66
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.54
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-21
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches11
Non-loss rate7.8%
Trailing Win Rate8.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.90
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.44
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.25
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.73
Portability PPG Range-1.80
Portability Score27.37
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.72
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.96
Current Team ELO-147.7
Current Opponent ELO147.7
Current ELO Difference-295.3
Expected score-0.40
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.14
Overperformance-9.98
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

HEBC

W
Nikola Tesla1–2HEBC1 Nov · away
Pick: HEBC 48% · hit
L
HEBC2–3Sasel25 Oct · home
Pick: Sasel 41% · hit
W
Norderstedt II1–2HEBC16 Oct · away
Pick: HEBC 68% · hit
L
HEBC0–5Borussia Dortmund1 Sep · home
Pick: Borussia Dortmund 54% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Tus Dassendorf

W
Sasel1–3Tus Dassendorf1 Nov · away
Pick: Tus Dassendorf 68% · hit
L
Tus Dassendorf1–2Süderelbe24 Oct · home
Pick: Tus Dassendorf 70% · missed
W
Tus Dassendorf3–1Eintracht Norderstedt29 Aug · home
Pick: Tus Dassendorf 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

HEBC and Tus Dassendorf meet in Oberliga - Hamburg on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 09:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: HEBC win 19.3%, draw 13.4%, Tus Dassendorf win 67.3%. The pick is Tus Dassendorf win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.4%. Both teams to score: 59.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.