ScoreProb
Oberliga - Hamburg Germany Hamburg - 15 2026

ETSV Hamburg vs Pinneberg

ETSV Hamburg Home · Elo 1,646
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Pinneberg Away · Elo 1,522
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: ETSV Hamburg win
ETSV Hamburg winPick
63.1%
Draw
12.9%
Pinneberg win
24.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.6%
No36.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.584.5%
Under 2.515.5%

How much we know

ETSV Hamburg history54 matches
Pinneberg history5 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (63.1%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why ETSV Hamburg are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • ETSV Hamburg are rated 125 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,646 against 1,522. On rating alone ETSV Hamburg would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    3.11 goals a game over 54 matches for ETSV Hamburg, against 3.20 over 5 for Pinneberg.

  • ETSV Hamburg concede fewer

    ETSV Hamburg concede 1.13 a game, Pinneberg 3.00.

  • Pinneberg games more often go over 2.5 goals

    74% of ETSV Hamburg matches, against 100% for Pinneberg. The model puts this match at 85% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
ETSV Hamburg
Pinneberg
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1646.4
ELO
1521.6
54
ELO · Matches
5
1646.4
Current Team ELO
1521.6
1521.6
Current Opponent ELO
1646.4
124.9
Current ELO Difference
-124.9
0.67
Expected score
0.33
54
History Matches
5
0.14
Residual Mean
0.20
59.93
Overperformance
53.95
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.00
3.00
Goals for per game
3.20
1.60
Goals against per game
3.00
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.00
2.70
Goals for per game
3.20
1.40
Goals against per game
3.00
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.20
1.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.60
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.00
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
3.03
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.79
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.93
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
5
2.15
PPG
2.00
66.7%
Win rate
60.0%
14.8%
Draw rate
20.0%
18.5%
Loss rate
20.0%
90.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
74.1%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
64.8%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
2.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.93
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
3
2.21
PPG
1.33
71.4%
Win rate
33.3%
7.1%
Draw rate
33.3%
21.4%
Loss rate
33.3%
96.4%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
82.1%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
71.4%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
3.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.68
28
History Matches
3
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
3.11
Goals for per game
3.20
98.1%
Scoring rate
100.0%
59.3%
BTTS rate
100.0%
3.50
Goals for per game
4.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
2.25
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
54
History Matches
5
3.11
Goals Mean
3.20
2.20
Goals Std
1.60
98.1%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
72.2%
Scored 2+ rate
100.0%
48.1%
Scored 3+ rate
40.0%
3.50
Venue Goals Mean
4.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.13
Goals against per game
3.00
61.1%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.11
Goals against per game
4.33
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
54
History Matches
5
1.13
Conceded Mean
3.00
1.23
Conceded Std
3.03
29.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
60.0%
14.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
1.11
Venue Conceded Mean
4.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
1.9%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
1.9%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
5
0.79
Result entropy
0.86
2.84
Goal Difference Std
2.93
21.22
Stability score
13.50
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
5
34
Lead Matches
3
88.2%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
1.00
10
Trailing Matches
2
20.0%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
5
1.47
First Half Goals For Mean
1.40
0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.20
1.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.80
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.80
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.69
Rest days
77.05
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
0
2.20
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
30
Normal Rest History Matches
2
2.20
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
18
Long Rest History Matches
2
2.17
Long Rest Points Per Match
3.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
2.50
50.0%
Win rate
75.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
2.50
0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.50
5
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.30
Portability PPG Std
—
0.69
Portability PPG Range
—
62.21
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
5
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO124.9
PPG0.15
GF-0.09
GA-1.87
PPG-0.75
PPG0.88
PPG0.00
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches49
Clean-sheet rate38.9%
Failed-to-score rate1.9%
History Matches25
Clean-sheet rate50.0%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches49
Goals Mean-0.09
Goals Std0.60
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.28
Scored 3+ rate8.1%
Venue Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.11
History Matches49
Conceded Mean-1.87
Conceded Std-1.80
Clean-sheet rate38.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.30
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-3.23
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-2.12
History Matches49
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.08
Stability score7.72
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.13
Eligible Matches48
Lead Matches31
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate-0.30
Trailing Win Rate10.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches48
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean-1.18
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.75
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days1.64
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest History Matches28
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.20
Long Rest History Matches16
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.83
Current Team ELO124.9
Current Opponent ELO-124.9
Current ELO Difference249.7
Expected score0.34
History Matches49
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance5.99
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

ETSV Hamburg

W
Victoria Hamburg2–3ETSV Hamburg30 Oct · away
Pick: ETSV Hamburg 38% · hit
L
ETSV Hamburg4–5Vorwärts-Wacker 0423 Oct · home
Pick: ETSV Hamburg 82% · missed
D
HT162–2ETSV Hamburg17 Oct · away
Pick: ETSV Hamburg 57% · missed
L
Norderstedt II2–1ETSV Hamburg13 Oct · away
Pick: ETSV Hamburg 82% · missed
W
Paloma1–4ETSV Hamburg4 Oct · away
Pick: Paloma 46% · missed

Pinneberg

L
Pinneberg2–4Concordia1 Nov · home
Pick: Pinneberg 60% · missed
W
Teutonia Ottensen1–3Pinneberg23 Oct · away
Pick: Pinneberg 46% · hit
W
Pinneberg2–1Süderelbe4 Oct · home
Pick: Süderelbe 44% · missed
W
Pinneberg5–0Niendorfer TSV30 Aug · home
Pick: Pinneberg 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

ETSV Hamburg and Pinneberg meet in Oberliga - Hamburg on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: ETSV Hamburg win 63.1%, draw 12.9%, Pinneberg win 24.0%. The pick is ETSV Hamburg win. Over 2.5 goals: 84.5%. Both teams to score: 63.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.