ScoreProb
4. liga - Divizie D Czechia Group D - 1 2026

Havlíčkův Brod vs Ždírec nad Doubravou

Havlíčkův Brod Home · Elo 1,485
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ždírec nad Doubravou Away · Elo 1,454
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Havlíčkův Brod win
Havlíčkův Brod winPick
57.8%
Draw
21.5%
Ždírec nad Doubravou win
20.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.9%
No47.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.4%
Under 2.539.6%

How much we know

Havlíčkův Brod history56 matches
Ždírec nad Doubravou history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.8%). Picks in that band won 55.7% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,845 matches.

Why Havlíčkův Brod are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Havlíčkův Brod are rated 30 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,485 against 1,454. On rating alone Havlíčkův Brod would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Havlíčkův Brod score far more

    1.59 goals a game over 56 matches for Havlíčkův Brod, against 1.02 over 50 for Ždírec nad Doubravou.

  • Havlíčkův Brod concede fewer

    Havlíčkův Brod concede 1.41 a game, Ždírec nad Doubravou 1.66.

  • Havlíčkův Brod games more often go over 2.5 goals

    63% of Havlíčkův Brod matches, against 50% for Ždírec nad Doubravou. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Havlíčkův Brod
Ždírec nad Doubravou@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1484.6
ELO
1454.5
56
ELO · Matches
50
1484.6
Current Team ELO
1454.5
1454.5
Current Opponent ELO
1484.6
30.14
Current ELO Difference
-30.14
0.54
Expected score
0.46
56
History Matches
50
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.05
49.20
Overperformance
46.57
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.00
2.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
0.80
2.20
Goals for per game
0.80
1.40
Goals against per game
2.10
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.60
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.51
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.68
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
50
1.43
PPG
1.10
41.1%
Win rate
30.0%
19.6%
Draw rate
20.0%
39.3%
Loss rate
50.0%
82.1%
Over 1.5 rate
74.0%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
32.1%
Over 3.5 rate
28.0%
2.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
26
1.59
PPG
0.62
48.3%
Win rate
11.5%
13.8%
Draw rate
26.9%
37.9%
Loss rate
61.5%
82.8%
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
62.1%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
34.5%
Over 3.5 rate
30.8%
2.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
29
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.59
Goals for per game
1.02
78.6%
Scoring rate
62.0%
51.8%
BTTS rate
46.0%
1.59
Goals for per game
0.81
75.9%
Scoring rate
53.8%
41.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.33
Goals for per game
0.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
56
History Matches
50
1.59
Goals Mean
1.02
1.22
Goals Std
1.01
78.6%
Scored 1+ rate
62.0%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
30.0%
21.4%
Scored 3+ rate
8.0%
1.59
Venue Goals Mean
0.81
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.41
Goals against per game
1.66
69.6%
Conceding rate
74.0%
1.38
Goals against per game
1.96
58.6%
Conceding rate
84.6%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
56
History Matches
50
1.41
Conceded Mean
1.66
1.54
Conceded Std
1.42
39.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.0%
12.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
32.0%
1.38
Venue Conceded Mean
1.96
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.0%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
38.0%
41.4%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
24.1%
Failed-to-score rate
46.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.0%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
38.0%
41.4%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
24.1%
Failed-to-score rate
46.2%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
50
0.96
Result entropy
0.94
2.20
Goal Difference Std
1.77
4.22
Stability score
6.28
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
50
18
Lead Matches
15
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.80
19
Trailing Matches
18
26.3%
Non-loss rate
11.1%
10.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
50
0.83
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.85
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.54
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
83.10
Rest days
82.10
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
30
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.47
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.20
25
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.40
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
0.33
66.7%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.82
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.33
1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
6
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.48
Portability PPG Std
0.44
1.23
Portability PPG Range
1.07
51.13
Portability Score
53.19
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO30.14
PPG0.33
GF0.57
GA-0.25
PPG1.67
PPG0.97
PPG0.80
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate4.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate26.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.57
Goals Std0.21
Scored 1+ rate16.6%
Scored 2+ rate20.0%
Scored 3+ rate13.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.78
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.65
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.25
Conceded Std0.12
Clean-sheet rate4.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.20
Venue Conceded Mean-0.58
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.08
History Matches6
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.43
Stability score-2.05
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.64
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate15.2%
Trailing Win Rate10.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.28
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.33
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.04
Portability PPG Range0.17
Portability Score-2.06
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.27
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.40
Current Team ELO30.14
Current Opponent ELO-30.14
Current ELO Difference60.29
Expected score0.09
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.62
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Havlíčkův Brod

W
Havlíčkův Brod4–1Sokol Tasovice31 Oct · home
Pick: Havlíčkův Brod 49% · hit
L
Havlíčkův Brod0–2Velká Bíteš24 Oct · home
Pick: Havlíčkův Brod 54% · missed
D
Humpolec1–1Havlíčkův Brod18 Oct · away
Pick: Havlíčkův Brod 45% · missed
W
Chotebor0–1Havlíčkův Brod4 Oct · away
Pick: Havlíčkův Brod 53% · hit
L
Havlíčkův Brod1–3Kuřim29 Aug · home
Pick: Kuřim 38% · hit

Ždírec nad Doubravou

D
Znojmo2–2Ždírec nad Doubravou1 Nov · away
Pick: Znojmo 58% · missed
D
Ždírec nad Doubravou0–0Chotebor25 Oct · home
Pick: Ždírec nad Doubravou 61% · missed
D
Žďár nad Sázavou2–2Ždírec nad Doubravou18 Oct · away
Pick: Žďár nad Sázavou 55% · missed
D
Ždírec nad Doubravou2–2Pelhřimov30 Aug · home
Pick: Ždírec nad Doubravou 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Havlíčkův Brod and Ždírec nad Doubravou meet in 4. liga - Divizie D on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Havlíčkův Brod win 57.8%, draw 21.5%, Ždírec nad Doubravou win 20.7%. The pick is Havlíčkův Brod win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.4%. Both teams to score: 52.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.