ScoreProb
1. Division Denmark Round 14 2026

HB Koge vs Aalborg

HB Koge Home · Elo 1,457
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Aalborg Away · Elo 1,511
Capelli Sport Stadion, Koge Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Aalborg win
HB Koge win
30.8%
Draw
21.8%
Aalborg winPick
47.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.4%
No42.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.8%
Under 2.536.2%

How much we know

HB Koge history64 matches
Aalborg history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Aalborg are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Aalborg are rated 54 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,511 against 1,457. On rating alone Aalborg would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Aalborg score more

    1.33 goals a game over 64 matches for HB Koge, against 1.54 over 67 for Aalborg.

  • HB Koge concede fewer

    HB Koge concede 1.61 a game, Aalborg 1.82.

  • Aalborg games more often go over 2.5 goals

    53% of HB Koge matches, against 67% for Aalborg. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
HB Koge
Aalborg
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1456.9
ELO
1511.2
64
ELO · Matches
67
1456.9
Current Team ELO
1511.2
1511.2
Current Opponent ELO
1456.9
-54.27
Current ELO Difference
54.27
0.42
Expected score
0.58
64
History Matches
67
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.01
47.00
Overperformance
50.89
-0.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.00
0.60
Goals for per game
1.20
2.00
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.40
PPG
1.50
0.40
Goals for per game
1.50
1.70
Goals against per game
1.40
10.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.45
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
67
1.19
PPG
1.22
31.3%
Win rate
31.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
28.4%
43.8%
Loss rate
40.3%
82.8%
Over 1.5 rate
83.6%
53.1%
Over 2.5 rate
67.2%
32.8%
Over 3.5 rate
49.3%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
33
1.47
PPG
1.15
43.3%
Win rate
27.3%
16.7%
Draw rate
33.3%
40.0%
Loss rate
39.4%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
84.8%
43.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
23.3%
Over 3.5 rate
51.5%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.17
30
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.33
Goals for per game
1.54
67.2%
Scoring rate
76.1%
53.1%
BTTS rate
62.7%
1.43
Goals for per game
1.52
66.7%
Scoring rate
75.8%
43.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
0.60
Goals for per game
1.00
40.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
64
History Matches
67
1.33
Goals Mean
1.54
1.21
Goals Std
1.32
67.2%
Scored 1+ rate
76.1%
42.2%
Scored 2+ rate
43.3%
17.2%
Scored 3+ rate
23.9%
1.43
Venue Goals Mean
1.52
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.61
Goals against per game
1.82
82.8%
Conceding rate
83.6%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.91
76.7%
Conceding rate
87.9%
2.40
Goals against per game
1.40
100.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
64
History Matches
67
1.61
Conceded Mean
1.82
1.07
Conceded Std
1.36
53.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.2%
21.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.4%
1.40
Venue Conceded Mean
1.91
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
17.2%
Clean-sheet rate
16.4%
32.8%
Failed-to-score rate
23.9%
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
12.1%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
24.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
60.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
17.2%
Clean-sheet rate
16.4%
32.8%
Failed-to-score rate
23.9%
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
12.1%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
24.2%
17.2%
Clean-sheet rate
16.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
67
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
1.62
Goal Difference Std
2.05
2.45
Stability score
1.03
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
66
17
Lead Matches
18
64.7%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.85
24
Trailing Matches
25
29.2%
Non-loss rate
36.0%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
4.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.97
0.89
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.98
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.29
Rest days
73.10
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.33
32
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.13
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.95
29
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.31
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.56
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
80.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.20
Current Competition PPG
1.40
-1.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.40
7
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.48
Portability PPG Std
0.43
1.18
Portability PPG Range
1.28
50.83
Portability Score
53.76
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-54.27
PPG-0.04
GF-0.21
GA-0.21
PPG-1.20
PPG0.32
PPG-0.80
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate0.8%
Failed-to-score rate8.9%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate11.2%
Failed-to-score rate9.1%
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.21
Goals Std-0.11
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.26
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-0.21
Conceded Std-0.29
Clean-sheet rate0.8%
Conceded 2+ rate0.9%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.51
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.10
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.43
Stability score1.42
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.35
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.13
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate8.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.40
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.10
Portability Score-2.94
Rest days2.19
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.33
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.18
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Current Team ELO-54.27
Current Opponent ELO54.27
Current ELO Difference-108.5
Expected score-0.15
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.89
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.39

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

HB Koge

L
Kolding IF3–2HB Koge31 Oct · away
Pick: Kolding IF 59% · hit
D
Hvidovre2–2HB Koge23 Oct · away
Pick: Hvidovre 61% · missed
L
HB Koge2–3AB Copenhagen16 Oct · home
Pick: AB Copenhagen 60% · hit
D
Aalborg0–0HB Koge29 Aug · away
Pick: Aalborg 57% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Aalborg

D
Aalborg1–1Hobro30 Oct · home
Pick: Hobro 40% · missed
L
Hillerød2–1Aalborg24 Oct · away
Pick: Hillerød 42% · hit
L
Aalborg0–1Vejle17 Oct · home
Pick: Vejle 40% · hit
D
Aalborg0–0HB Koge29 Aug · home
Pick: Aalborg 57% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

HB Koge and Aalborg meet in 1. Division on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. The match is played at Capelli Sport Stadion, Koge. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: HB Koge win 30.8%, draw 21.8%, Aalborg win 47.4%. The pick is Aalborg win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.8%. Both teams to score: 57.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.