ScoreProb
1. Division Denmark Round 14 2026

Vejle vs FC Fredericia

Vejle Home · Elo 1,522
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
FC Fredericia Away · Elo 1,589
Vejle Stadion Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Vejle win
Vejle winPick
38.3%
Draw
25.2%
FC Fredericia win
36.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.9%
No40.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.0%
Under 2.541.0%

How much we know

Vejle history69 matches
FC Fredericia history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Vejle are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FC Fredericia are rated 68 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,589 against 1,522. On rating alone FC Fredericia would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.57 goals a game over 69 matches for Vejle, against 1.66 over 67 for FC Fredericia.

  • FC Fredericia concede fewer

    Vejle concede 1.71 a game, FC Fredericia 1.42.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    59% of Vejle matches, against 60% for FC Fredericia. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Vejle
FC Fredericia
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1521.6
ELO
1589.3
69
ELO · Matches
67
1521.6
Current Team ELO
1589.3
1589.3
Current Opponent ELO
1521.6
-67.75
Current ELO Difference
67.75
0.40
Expected score
0.60
69
History Matches
67
0.01
Residual Mean
0.06
51.01
Overperformance
54.78
0.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.32
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
1.80
3.40
Goals for per game
2.20
1.60
Goals against per game
0.40
100.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
2.40
2.60
Goals for per game
2.30
1.70
Goals against per game
0.60
50.0%
Win rate
70.0%
2.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.62
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.66
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.79
Overall performance9 signals
90
69
Matches
67
1.22
PPG
1.58
30.4%
Win rate
43.3%
30.4%
Draw rate
28.4%
39.1%
Loss rate
28.4%
88.4%
Over 1.5 rate
82.1%
59.4%
Over 2.5 rate
59.7%
39.1%
Over 3.5 rate
35.8%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
35
1.24
PPG
1.77
30.3%
Win rate
51.4%
33.3%
Draw rate
22.9%
36.4%
Loss rate
25.7%
97.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.1%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
62.9%
45.5%
Over 3.5 rate
34.3%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.98
33
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.57
Goals for per game
1.66
84.1%
Scoring rate
74.6%
63.8%
BTTS rate
55.2%
1.73
Goals for per game
1.71
87.9%
Scoring rate
77.1%
69.7%
BTTS rate
51.4%
3.20
Goals for per game
1.60
100.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
69
History Matches
67
1.57
Goals Mean
1.66
1.26
Goals Std
1.41
84.1%
Scored 1+ rate
74.6%
40.6%
Scored 2+ rate
50.7%
18.8%
Scored 3+ rate
25.4%
1.73
Venue Goals Mean
1.71
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.71
Goals against per game
1.42
79.7%
Conceding rate
73.1%
1.79
Goals against per game
1.26
81.8%
Conceding rate
65.7%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.40
80.0%
Conceding rate
40.0%
69
History Matches
67
1.71
Conceded Mean
1.42
1.29
Conceded Std
1.22
53.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.8%
26.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.4%
1.79
Venue Conceded Mean
1.26
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
15.9%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
12.1%
Failed-to-score rate
22.9%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
20.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
15.9%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
12.1%
Failed-to-score rate
22.9%
20.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
69
History Matches
67
0.99
Result entropy
0.98
1.91
Goal Difference Std
1.96
0.67
Stability score
1.95
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
65
15
Lead Matches
17
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
82.4%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.88
26
Trailing Matches
18
42.3%
Non-loss rate
27.8%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.85
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
0.97
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.84
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
39
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.28
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.65
25
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.28
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.58
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.80
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
60.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
80.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.60
Current Competition PPG
1.80
1.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.20
7
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.74
Portability PPG Std
0.44
1.85
Portability PPG Range
1.27
40.35
Portability Score
52.99
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
69
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-67.75
PPG-0.36
GF-0.09
GA0.29
PPG0.80
PPG-0.53
PPG1.20
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.09
Goals Std-0.15
Scored 1+ rate9.4%
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean0.01
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.42
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.29
Conceded Std0.06
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate11.8%
Conceded 3+ rate6.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.53
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.52
History Matches2
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.05
Stability score-1.28
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.75
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate14.5%
Trailing Win Rate2.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.30
Portability PPG Range0.58
Portability Score-12.64
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.37
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.30
Current Team ELO-67.75
Current Opponent ELO67.75
Current ELO Difference-135.5
Expected score-0.19
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.76
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Vejle

D
Vendsyssel FF1–1Vejle1 Nov · away
Pick: Vejle 38% · missed
D
Vejle0–0Aarhus Fremad24 Oct · home
Pick: Vejle 45% · missed
W
Aalborg0–1Vejle17 Oct · away
Pick: Vejle 40% · hit
D
Aarhus Fremad0–0Vejle30 Aug · away
Pick: Aarhus Fremad 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

FC Fredericia

W
FC Fredericia3–1AB Copenhagen31 Oct · home
Pick: FC Fredericia 43% · hit
L
Esbjerg2–1FC Fredericia24 Oct · away
Pick: FC Fredericia 42% · missed
W
FC Fredericia3–0Hobro17 Oct · home
Pick: FC Fredericia 47% · hit
L
Hvidovre2–1FC Fredericia30 Aug · away
Pick: Hvidovre 38% · hit
L
FC Fredericia1–2Odense26 Aug · home
Pick: FC Fredericia 38% · missed

About this match

Vejle and FC Fredericia meet in 1. Division on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at Vejle Stadion. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Vejle win 38.3%, draw 25.2%, FC Fredericia win 36.5%. The pick is Vejle win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.0%. Both teams to score: 59.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.