ScoreProb
Liga Premier Serie A Mexico 2026

Héroes de Zaci vs Calor de San Pedro

Héroes de Zaci Home · Elo 1,486
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Calor de San Pedro Away · Elo 1,521
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Calor de San Pedro win
Héroes de Zaci win
25.6%
Draw
23.0%
Calor de San Pedro winPick
51.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.6%
No45.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.6%
Under 2.542.4%

How much we know

Héroes de Zaci history19 matches
Calor de San Pedro history33 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 16 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 10 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 01:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 01:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Calor de San Pedro are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Calor de San Pedro are rated 34 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,521 against 1,486. On rating alone Calor de San Pedro would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Héroes de Zaci score more

    1.47 goals a game over 19 matches for Héroes de Zaci, against 1.15 over 33 for Calor de San Pedro.

  • Calor de San Pedro concede fewer

    Héroes de Zaci concede 2.11 a game, Calor de San Pedro 1.00.

  • Héroes de Zaci games more often go over 2.5 goals

    74% of Héroes de Zaci matches, against 33% for Calor de San Pedro. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 19 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Héroes de Zaci
Calor de San Pedro
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1486.3
ELO
1520.6
19
ELO · Matches
33
1486.3
Current Team ELO
1520.6
1520.6
Current Opponent ELO
1486.3
-34.30
Current ELO Difference
34.30
0.45
Expected score
0.55
19
History Matches
33
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.03
47.93
Overperformance
51.72
-0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.20
2.20
Goals for per game
1.40
2.20
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.40
1.30
Goals for per game
1.10
2.50
Goals against per game
0.80
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.85
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.37
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.60
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
3.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.35
Overall performance9 signals
90
19
Matches
33
1.26
PPG
1.48
36.8%
Win rate
39.4%
15.8%
Draw rate
30.3%
47.4%
Loss rate
30.3%
89.5%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
73.7%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
57.9%
Over 3.5 rate
15.2%
2.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.31
Venue performance10 signals
100
9
Matches
17
1.44
PPG
1.29
44.4%
Win rate
35.3%
11.1%
Draw rate
23.5%
44.4%
Loss rate
41.2%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
70.6%
77.8%
Over 2.5 rate
29.4%
55.6%
Over 3.5 rate
11.8%
2.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.32
9
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.47
Goals for per game
1.15
68.4%
Scoring rate
66.7%
57.9%
BTTS rate
51.5%
1.44
Goals for per game
1.06
66.7%
Scoring rate
64.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
52.9%
19
History Matches
33
1.47
Goals Mean
1.15
1.50
Goals Std
1.13
68.4%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
42.1%
Scored 2+ rate
30.3%
21.1%
Scored 3+ rate
12.1%
1.44
Venue Goals Mean
1.06
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
2.11
Goals against per game
1.00
89.5%
Conceding rate
75.8%
2.22
Goals against per game
1.18
100.0%
Conceding rate
88.2%
19
History Matches
33
2.11
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.41
Conceded Std
0.70
57.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
24.2%
36.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
2.22
Venue Conceded Mean
1.18
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
10.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.8%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
10.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.8%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
10.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
19
History Matches
33
0.92
Result entropy
0.99
2.54
Goal Difference Std
1.31
7.77
Stability score
0.73
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
19
Eligible Matches
32
5
Lead Matches
4
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.83
8
Trailing Matches
9
0.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
22.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
19
Halftime Coverage Matches
32
0.79
First Half Goals For Mean
0.31
1.16
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
0.68
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.95
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
215.1
Rest days
202.2
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
7
Normal Rest History Matches
10
1.57
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
11
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.09
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.71
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.05
—
Portability PPG Range
0.10
—
Portability Score
91.14
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
19
Clean History Matches
33
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-34.30
PPG-0.22
GF0.32
GA1.11
PPG0.15
PPG0.60
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-14
Goals Mean0.32
Goals Std0.37
Scored 1+ rate1.8%
Scored 2+ rate11.8%
Scored 3+ rate8.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.39
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.47
History Matches-14
Conceded Mean1.11
Conceded Std0.71
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate33.7%
Conceded 3+ rate36.8%
Venue Conceded Mean1.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.90
History Matches-14
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std1.23
Stability score7.04
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.68
Eligible Matches-13
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate5.0%
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.33
Trailing Win Rate-0.22
Halftime Coverage Matches-13
First Half Goals For Mean0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean0.72
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.38
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days12.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.57
Long Rest History Matches-10
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.62
Current Team ELO-34.30
Current Opponent ELO34.30
Current ELO Difference-68.59
Expected score-0.10
History Matches-14
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-3.79
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Héroes de Zaci

L
Guerreros del Pacifico5–0Héroes de Zaci31 Oct · away
Pick: Héroes de Zaci 38% · missed
W
Héroes de Zaci6–0Dragones de Oaxaca25 Oct · home
Pick: Dragones de Oaxaca 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Calor de San Pedro

L
Mineros de Fresnillo4–1Calor de San Pedro25 Oct · away
Pick: Calor de San Pedro 36% · missed
L
Calor de San Pedro1–2Delfines Coatzacoalcos16 Oct · home
Pick: Calor de San Pedro 62% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Héroes de Zaci and Calor de San Pedro meet in Liga Premier Serie A on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 01:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Héroes de Zaci win 25.6%, draw 23.0%, Calor de San Pedro win 51.4%. The pick is Calor de San Pedro win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.6%. Both teams to score: 54.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.