ScoreProb
III Liga - Group 4 Poland Group IV - 16 2026

Hetman Zamosc vs Wisłoka Dębica

Hetman Zamosc Home · Elo 1,495
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Wisłoka Dębica Away · Elo 1,483
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hetman Zamosc win
Hetman Zamosc winPick
45.9%
Draw
28.3%
Wisłoka Dębica win
25.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.3%
No44.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.3%
Under 2.546.7%

How much we know

Hetman Zamosc history9 matches
Wisłoka Dębica history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Hetman Zamosc are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,495 against 1,483. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Hetman Zamosc score more

    1.44 goals a game over 9 matches for Hetman Zamosc, against 1.21 over 58 for Wisłoka Dębica.

  • Defences are close

    Hetman Zamosc concede 1.56 a game, Wisłoka Dębica 1.41.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    56% of Hetman Zamosc matches, against 52% for Wisłoka Dębica. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hetman Zamosc
Wisłoka Dębica@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1495.5
ELO
1483.2
9
ELO · Matches
58
1495.5
Current Team ELO
1483.2
1483.2
Current Opponent ELO
1495.5
12.32
Current ELO Difference
-12.32
0.52
Expected score
0.48
9
History Matches
58
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.02
48.96
Overperformance
48.27
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
9
Matches
10
1.11
PPG
0.90
1.44
Goals for per game
1.20
1.56
Goals against per game
1.80
22.2%
Win rate
20.0%
1.44
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.56
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.42
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.33
0.97
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.52
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
9
Matches
58
1.11
PPG
1.26
22.2%
Win rate
32.8%
44.4%
Draw rate
27.6%
33.3%
Loss rate
39.7%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
69.0%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
51.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
27.6%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
Venue performance10 signals
100
4
Matches
32
1.25
PPG
1.38
25.0%
Win rate
34.4%
50.0%
Draw rate
34.4%
25.0%
Loss rate
31.3%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
56.3%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
31.3%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
4
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.44
Goals for per game
1.21
88.9%
Scoring rate
69.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
55.2%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.25
75.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
68.8%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
80.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
9
History Matches
58
1.44
Goals Mean
1.21
0.83
Goals Std
1.35
88.9%
Scored 1+ rate
69.0%
44.4%
Scored 2+ rate
27.6%
11.1%
Scored 3+ rate
13.8%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.56
Goals against per game
1.41
77.8%
Conceding rate
74.1%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.41
75.0%
Conceding rate
81.3%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
80.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
9
History Matches
58
1.56
Conceded Mean
1.41
1.42
Conceded Std
1.22
44.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.7%
11.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.7%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.41
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
9
History Matches
58
0.97
Result entropy
0.99
1.52
Goal Difference Std
1.74
3.44
Stability score
1.00
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
5
Eligible Matches
58
0
Lead Matches
11
—
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.88
3
Trailing Matches
20
33.3%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
5
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.80
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
1.40
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.72
1.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.88
Rest days
77.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
5
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.60
2
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.28
5
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.60
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.30
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
60.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.20
Current Competition PPG
1.40
0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.20
3
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.07
Portability PPG Std
0.23
0.13
Portability PPG Range
0.57
88.24
Portability Score
68.91
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
9
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points Retention
ELO12.32
PPG-0.15
GF0.24
GA0.14
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.13
PPG-0.20
PPG0.21
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-49
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches-28
Clean-sheet rate6.3%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches-49
Goals Mean0.24
Goals Std-0.52
Scored 1+ rate19.9%
Scored 2+ rate16.9%
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.24
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.04
History Matches-49
Conceded Mean0.14
Conceded Std0.20
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate4.8%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.41
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.10
History Matches-49
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.22
Stability score2.44
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.03
Eligible Matches-53
Lead Matches-11
Trailing Matches-17
Non-loss rate3.3%
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches-53
First Half Goals For Mean-0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.51
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.60
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.16
Portability PPG Range-0.43
Portability Score19.33
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.60
Normal Rest History Matches-23
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.28
Long Rest History Matches-22
Long Rest Points Per Match0.30
Current Team ELO12.32
Current Opponent ELO-12.32
Current ELO Difference24.65
Expected score0.04
History Matches-49
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance0.69
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hetman Zamosc

W
Sokół Kolb.0–2Hetman Zamosc31 Oct · away
Pick: Sokół Kolb. 42% · missed
W
Hetman Zamosc1–0Jarosław25 Oct · home
Pick: Hetman Zamosc 42% · hit
W
Busko-Zdroj2–4Hetman Zamosc18 Oct · away
Pick: Hetman Zamosc 38% · hit
D
Hetman Zamosc2–2Chełmianka Chełm4 Oct · home
Pick: Chełmianka Chełm 57% · missed
L
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów4–2Hetman Zamosc29 Aug · away
Pick: Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 48% · hit

Wisłoka Dębica

W
Wisłoka Dębica2–1KSZO 192931 Oct · home
Pick: KSZO 1929 47% · missed
L
Wisła Kraków II3–1Wisłoka Dębica24 Oct · away
Pick: Wisła Kraków II 49% · hit
W
Wisłoka Dębica4–0Naprzód17 Oct · home
Pick: Wisłoka Dębica 51% · hit
L
Siarka Tarnobrzeg1–0Wisłoka Dębica29 Aug · away
Pick: Siarka Tarnobrzeg 55% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Hetman Zamosc and Wisłoka Dębica meet in III Liga - Group 4 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Hetman Zamosc win 45.9%, draw 28.3%, Wisłoka Dębica win 25.9%. The pick is Hetman Zamosc win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.3%. Both teams to score: 55.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.