ScoreProb
1. Division Denmark Round 14 2026

Hillerød vs Kolding IF

Hillerød Home · Elo 1,514
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kolding IF Away · Elo 1,493
Helsingor Stadion Referee: O. A. Stegemuller Fogh Simbold Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hillerød win
Hillerød winPick
40.9%
Draw
27.8%
Kolding IF win
31.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.0%
No44.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.4%
Under 2.542.6%

How much we know

Hillerød history69 matches
Kolding IF history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Hillerød are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,514 against 1,493. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Hillerød score more

    1.77 goals a game over 69 matches for Hillerød, against 1.48 over 67 for Kolding IF.

  • Kolding IF concede fewer

    Hillerød concede 1.46 a game, Kolding IF 1.18.

  • Hillerød games more often go over 2.5 goals

    61% of Hillerød matches, against 46% for Kolding IF. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hillerød
Kolding IF
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1513.5
ELO
1492.5
69
ELO · Matches
67
1513.5
Current Team ELO
1492.5
1492.5
Current Opponent ELO
1513.5
21.00
Current ELO Difference
-21.00
0.53
Expected score
0.47
69
History Matches
67
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.02
49.93
Overperformance
48.74
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.00
4.60
Goals for per game
2.60
1.80
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.20
2.60
Goals for per game
2.20
1.50
Goals against per game
1.10
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
3.44
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.52
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
3.96
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.05
Overall performance9 signals
90
69
Matches
67
1.45
PPG
1.42
37.7%
Win rate
40.3%
31.9%
Draw rate
20.9%
30.4%
Loss rate
38.8%
84.1%
Over 1.5 rate
71.6%
60.9%
Over 2.5 rate
46.3%
36.2%
Over 3.5 rate
25.4%
2.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
37
1.52
PPG
1.30
38.7%
Win rate
35.1%
35.5%
Draw rate
24.3%
25.8%
Loss rate
40.5%
83.9%
Over 1.5 rate
75.7%
54.8%
Over 2.5 rate
48.6%
32.3%
Over 3.5 rate
27.0%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.23
31
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.77
Goals for per game
1.48
81.2%
Scoring rate
74.6%
66.7%
BTTS rate
44.8%
1.71
Goals for per game
1.57
87.1%
Scoring rate
73.0%
71.0%
BTTS rate
43.2%
1.75
Goals for per game
1.20
75.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
69
History Matches
67
1.77
Goals Mean
1.48
1.76
Goals Std
1.47
81.2%
Scored 1+ rate
74.6%
49.3%
Scored 2+ rate
38.8%
21.7%
Scored 3+ rate
17.9%
1.71
Venue Goals Mean
1.57
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.46
Goals against per game
1.18
78.3%
Conceding rate
67.2%
1.35
Goals against per game
1.30
80.6%
Conceding rate
67.6%
2.50
Goals against per game
1.60
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
69
History Matches
67
1.46
Conceded Mean
1.18
1.22
Conceded Std
1.11
39.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.8%
20.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.9%
1.35
Venue Conceded Mean
1.30
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.8%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
12.9%
Failed-to-score rate
27.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.8%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
12.9%
Failed-to-score rate
27.0%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
69
History Matches
67
1.00
Result entropy
0.97
2.17
Goal Difference Std
1.96
0.39
Stability score
3.45
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
65
22
Lead Matches
22
68.2%
Lead Win Rate
77.3%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
0.82
18
Trailing Matches
18
33.3%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
1.06
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.85
Rest days
76.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
40
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.53
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.18
23
Long Rest History Matches
30
1.26
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.60
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
5
0.25
PPG
0.60
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
60.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
0.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.49
4
Current Competition Matches
5
0.25
Current Competition PPG
0.60
-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.40
7
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.64
Portability PPG Std
0.77
1.75
Portability PPG Range
2.40
43.76
Portability Score
39.26
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
69
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO21.00
PPG0.03
GF0.29
GA0.28
PPG-0.35
PPG0.22
PPG0.40
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.29
Goals Std0.29
Scored 1+ rate6.5%
Scored 2+ rate10.5%
Scored 3+ rate3.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.92
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.28
Conceded Std0.12
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate6.3%
Conceded 3+ rate5.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.49
History Matches2
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.21
Stability score-3.05
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.91
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate5.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.35
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.35
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.13
Portability PPG Range-0.65
Portability Score4.50
Rest days-2.19
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.35
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.34
Current Team ELO21.00
Current Opponent ELO-21.00
Current ELO Difference42.01
Expected score0.06
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hillerød

L
Aarhus Fremad2–0Hillerød1 Nov · away
Pick: Aarhus Fremad 54% · hit
W
Hillerød2–1Aalborg24 Oct · home
Pick: Hillerød 42% · hit
L
Hvidovre1–0Hillerød18 Oct · away
Pick: Hvidovre 53% · hit
W
Hillerød3–1Hobro30 Aug · home
Pick: Hillerød 38% · hit
W
Avarta0–4Hillerød25 Aug · away
Pick: Hillerød 56% · hit

Kolding IF

W
Kolding IF3–2HB Koge31 Oct · home
Pick: Kolding IF 59% · hit
L
AB Copenhagen1–0Kolding IF24 Oct · away
Pick: AB Copenhagen 56% · hit
W
Kolding IF2–1Vendsyssel FF16 Oct · home
Pick: Kolding IF 49% · hit
W
Kolding IF2–1AB Copenhagen29 Aug · home
Pick: AB Copenhagen 42% · missed
W
Brønderslev1–4Kolding IF26 Aug · away
Pick: Kolding IF 50% · hit

About this match

Hillerød and Kolding IF meet in 1. Division on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Helsingor Stadion. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Hillerød win 40.9%, draw 27.8%, Kolding IF win 31.4%. The pick is Hillerød win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.4%. Both teams to score: 56.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.